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S&P500 - Analysis and Trading

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Re: S&P 500

the guru said:
charts have no indication as to how the s@p moves
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Is that right

29.5 points overnight following the chart plus 18 points from 2 days ago - all from my chart posted 3 days ago

 

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Re: S&P 500

skc said:
Care to elaborate?

The chart definitely look bearish, but why tonight?
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the guru said:
charts have no indication as to how the s@p moves
Click to expand...

Charts precede news and movement, they show where the smart money is moving ahead of the funds and retail investors.

When the markets fall, the press, funds and fundamentalists invent a reason, usually one or two days after the event as in this story from the UK Telegraph.

It is having more sellers than buyers that sends markets down.

Ignore charts at your peril. I am fully cashed for the coming bloodbath.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/7954285/Wall-Street-tumbles-spooked-by-shock-jobless-manufacturing-data.html

gg
 
Re: S&P 500

Garpal Gumnut said:
Charts precede news and movement, they show where the smart money is moving ahead of the funds and retail investors.
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I call BS on that. Charts have repeating patterns, support and resistance, can show a slosh of funds, but you gotta know the fundamental news also and how people are positioning into that plus the outcome, along with correlations to show where underlying psychological shifts are happening, without the entire picture and context, a chart is a chart and a small edge!

Oh and 'smart money' what a load of bollocks, you have global macro funds competing with stat arb, competing with sovereign interest competing with.......a stack of others all the time! Sometimes one is right, other times the other, there is no such thing as 'smart money'!

BTW, nice fall last night! Sorry skc, can't disclose reasons anymore.

All the best, back to my hiding place.
 
Re: S&P 500

Nice call MrC.
I saw some shorting volume in asia on sgxnk and n225m but wasnt convinced till I saw the toppy volumes in Europe. It wasnt a big stretch to predict the coming jobs claim and manufacturing index were going to be catalysts to a down move, no matter what the numbers were. But these are all hindsite comments.
Can I ask why you cant disclose reasons? Im guessing its a work related issue.
Anyway, nice call on direction and timing. Refreshing to see a real call instead of 'maybe up maybe down' comments.
Arco, any chance you could explain your charts? What do the shaded green and purple areas mean and how does your chart predict moves?
 

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Re: S&P 500

Broadway said:
Nice call MrC.
Anyway, nice call on direction and timing.
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Agree.

MRC&Co - if you can't give reasons etc., I guess I will just have to learn to live with reliably being given the direction & timing only
 
Re: S&P 500


Yeh, that was part of the reason (though I doubt positive figures would have been sold, we just had very good breakdowns and estimates for the figures within our team) but quite a few other reasons contributed.

Exactly, work related reasons, managing money with a fund, people pay for that, so can't go giving that out for free.

Back to the markets.
 
Re: S&P 500

Timmy said:
Agree.

MRC&Co - if you can't give reasons etc., I guess I will just have to learn to live with reliably being given the direction & timing only
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haha, I'll always try to help when I can my friend!
 
Re: S&P 500

Looking for a long entry around these levels. Will wait and see what happens at the asian open first though. Outside of the minor breach in July, the 1040 level on the SPX has been a decent point for long entries all year. Obvious target would be for a test of the 1100 region if we do pop up from here
 

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Re: S&P 500

It's a good level for sure technically Frink. But I would be careful on this one, I think that level is about to be shattered tonight.......
 
Re: S&P 500

MRC & Co said:
It's a good level for sure technically Frink. But I would be careful on this one, I think that level is about to be shattered tonight.......
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Quite possibly, due to Bernanke opening his mouth tonight I'll enter on reduced size. Had family commitments for a week recently which meant that I couldn't get set for this recent leg down. Been quite annoyed at being flat for what's turned out to be a pretty decent run.

The obvious answer to missing a good trade is to go fishing for a bottom in an uncertain market
 
Re: S&P 500

professor_frink said:
The obvious answer to missing a good trade is to go fishing for a bottom in an uncertain market
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ha ha ha, ah yes, I know the feeling!

I think you may get an initial equity boost (oddly into what will likely be weak GDP numbers) and when Bernanke opens his mouth, but think after the initial potential spike, it will sell off.......

Just a wild guess, probably completely wrong on the equity front!
 
Re: S&P 500

Fun night.. GDP better than expected, and the lod at midnight had alot of volume across all etfs and futures.
So squeeze or real?
I notice copper and oil up for 3 days running.
 
Re: S&P 500

MRC & Co said:
Just a wild guess, probably completely wrong on the equity front!
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Yep, as per bonds thread, this is why I always go to the source and in this case, directly affected yield sensitive crosses!
 
Re: S&P 500

Broadway said:
So squeeze or real?
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Thats a good question Broadway ... certainly some of the move looked like short-covering, but not all of it. Though I wont be thinking of it too much until Monday now ... time for some weekend!

MRC & Co said:
Yep, as per bonds thread, this is why I always go to the source and in this case, directly affected yield sensitive crosses!
Click to expand...

Nailed the ZN, all in the timing, again. Nicely done MRC&Co.
 
Re: S&P 500

Broadway said:
Nice charts arco, how did you derive your target boxes?
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Hi Broadway

They are all derived using Ichimoku elementsfrom several time-frames. Once I have collated that information I construct the yellow zone as the potential target/reversal or entry area.

Rgds - arco
 
Re: S&P 500

Timmy said:
Thats a good question Broadway ... certainly some of the move looked like short-covering, but not all of it. Though I wont be thinking of it too much until Monday now ... time for some weekend!
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ha ha, I was the same, all 'marketed out', rest over the wkend and I can't believe in several hours futures open again in Wellington for another crazy wk!

That is the question Broadway, I wouldn't be surprised to see this continue on early into nxt wk, with mid-late wk a break down out of the range on S&P.....we will see.
 
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