S&P500 - Analysis and Trading

white_goodman · 11 November 2009

Re: S&P 500

Largesse said:
close above 1100 could see a big blow off

your mums a big blow off, oh snap!....

i still expect it around the 1090 area tonight, or on the opposite side clear sky's till the 1150 area in the near term

MRC & Co · 12 November 2009

Re: S&P 500

Joules MM1 said:
the volumes are thin for the moves from the recent retracements........the rut is lagging severely and the fins (bkx xlf + eem) are well below the highs of the currrent bounce.......if breadth stays wide, or, those other indecies play catch-up on a percentage basis then we could be game on for fast bull run to round 1205 spx.......

http://www.cnbc.com/id/17689937 (futes view)

False broke the high on SnP, volumes on the run-up are becoming lower and lower and nobody bothered to push it when it got above the high (very different to the recent times it broke highs where it just blasted them away). Panic in Asia today.

I think we are coming off here.

Joules MM1 · 12 November 2009

Re: S&P 500

MRC & Co said:
False broke the high on SnP, volumes on the run-up are becoming lower and lower and nobody bothered to push it when it got above the high (very different to the recent times it broke highs where it just blasted them away). Panic in Asia today.

I think we are coming off here.

yep, the rut/xlf/bkx/eem continue to lag despite the trans having a reasonable and quiet run-up......and the high in the spx looked as though selling was into the high and then volume fell away......ask any elliottician (i mean a good one) and they'll tell you this current phase is least like a third-wave incline.....

ThingyMajiggy · 13 November 2009

Re: S&P 500

does anyone trade using the dom? i'm just watching it this morning on the ES. its quite interesting. some huge orders coming in around 1086.00, then it tanked hard, do these big orders mean anything? I don't know much about the dom, it was locked in battle from 1086 and 1085, then it let go. it seems its often the opposite, if the big orders come in when its shooting up, the move will often be in the other direction, hmmm.

MRC & Co · 13 November 2009

Re: S&P 500

I can't see much edge in watching S&P order flow, every order seems a big order. 3000 lots get crunched in a milisecond, infact I find watching any form of day trading the S&P one of the hardest things out there.

But I also see cable tried to breakout but was stopped by the fitch news, and most importantly, AUD/USD (the king of currency land 'risk on' trades) also tried to breakout but too formed a false break, on strong employment data. Really is looking more and more like a risk-off ask coming down on top of those bids to me.

Naked shorts · 13 November 2009

Re: S&P 500

ThingyMajiggy said:
some huge orders coming in around 1086.00, then it tanked hard, do these big orders mean anything?

It means there is big buyers

glhf

white_goodman · 13 November 2009

Re: S&P 500

mmm short at 1090... good for about 70 points surely

Naked shorts · 13 November 2009

Re: S&P 500

Naked shorts said:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/charts/charts_debt.htm

Just wait for that green line to touch the orange line and it should make the news. Not hard to guess the market's reaction to that..

Well well well

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aWXDnpFProiY&pos=6

Naked shorts · 13 November 2009

Re: S&P 500

white_goodman said:
mmm short at 1090... good for about 70 points surely

wait for 5mins after trade balance

white_goodman · 13 November 2009

Re: S&P 500

Naked shorts said:
wait for 5mins after trade balance

ha, have a feeling consumer sentiment number may have an impact tonight...

might aswell make a ballsy call and short gold now aswell...

BOC

Naked shorts · 13 November 2009

Re: S&P 500

white_goodman said:
ha, have a feeling consumer sentiment number may have an impact tonight...

might aswell make a ballsy call and short gold now aswell...

BOC

hmmm. I was just thinking about that... I dunno, im still quite bearish on the USD and its pretty much inversely correlated with gold. long GC and short ES could be good.

white_goodman · 13 November 2009

Re: S&P 500

long term im bullish gold and bearish USD aswell, still doesnt mean you can take some profit the other way...

this is what I'm seeing as we speak... dont know how valid the levels are, but its what im looking at..

Joules MM1 · 14 November 2009

Re: S&P 500

white_goodman said:
mmm short at 1090... good for about 70 points surely

.....if youve quantified price, ok, take the call and don't marry yourself to any level.....gs and jp buying into the close yesterday.....

Joules MM1 · 14 November 2009

Re: S&P 500

you might want to consider a stop sell below todays level as there is also a vacumme on the es where no volume transacted......the chopy pattern upwards so far today belies the hard work gone into lifting value.......credit suisse selling and local pitplayers are quick turnover of buy/sells.......sound like a topping process......i guess that may define closing a short versus opening a long pos....two completely diff ball games

white_goodman · 14 November 2009

Re: S&P 500

Joules MM1 said:
.....if youve quantified price, ok, take the call and don't marry yourself to any level.....gs and jp buying into the close yesterday.....

oh i wasnt expecting 70 points, just a quicky for a few ticks, both payed off pretty nicely, and by paid off I mean earnt me sweet demo trading profits

Joules MM1 · 14 November 2009

Re: S&P 500

white_goodman said:
oh i wasnt expecting 70 points, just a quicky for a few ticks, both payed off pretty nicely, and by paid off I mean earnt me sweet demo trading profits

cheers

was interesting session ........lower volume and some pit traders left early (i guess friday thin vol is not too unusual) price failed to get real upside impulsivity so larger trades are going to be harder to achieve without lower the exposure and ignoring the minor chatter.......the comment from one pit was that the spx has 1096 as major signal for accum.....otherwise downside carries bigger prospects for a few days......the oz market futes liked the upside too.....the real lynch-pin appears to be the dx (usd) and if that can gain traction then all upside bets appear in trub.......I'm looking for further upside.......

MRC & Co · 16 November 2009

Re: S&P 500

Neutral now, would have liked to see this go quicker than it has. It is pretty resilient, hard to get a move either way from this situation/area for me.

Joules MM1 · 17 November 2009

Re: S&P 500

http://www.finviz.com/map3darchive.ashx

here's a good way of getting diff pic on activity on nyse.......of course you still need to give perspective and context, but, it's a good way to gauge session over session of strengths.......depending on your bias

Joules MM1 · 17 November 2009

Re: S&P 500

NYSE volume 465M shares, about 5% below its three-month average; advancers lead decliners by 5.2:1.- NASDAQ volume 885M shares, about 11% below its three-month average; advancers lead decliners by 3.5:1.

so far ..

Tradesurfer · 17 November 2009

Re: S&P 500

looked for a while like an emerging head and shoulders reversal. But it isn't one until the neckline is broker which didn't happen. Price continues to make high highs and higher lows. The trend is the trend.......

S&P500 - Analysis and Trading

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