RRS - Range Resources

idribble said:

If Range can get Canmex over the line it will be game on! The investment community will sit up and take notice that an international major player is getting in on the ground floor.

It will speak volumes about the improving political situation in Puntland.

4 weeks and counting.

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Certainly think it could be value for money although still a few getting out. Puntland hey , haven't seen 'getaway' do an episode on it yet ! Penny for your thoughts anyone?

Range have jumped over 20% today with no annoucements. I have been watching this one for a while unsure of where it is going. Does anyone have any info.

It looks to me like a day trader play every 5 - 6 weeks.

Haven't been in this since a nice trade last April and I remember getting a bit anxious at the time because of the local Puntland politics. Very relieved to grab profit and move on.

Not often you see 19,000,000 units go through in a single trade (was crossed), certainly made everyone sit up and take notice!

Risen 14% in three days an holding quite well on great volume and depth. Bought in at 2.4 cents monday and this stage trying to accumulate at 2.7 cents but got beaten at the close.
As far as the stock goes, Somalia/Puntland holds some promise with interesting findings from past exploration results being "uncovered ". Possibillities are certainly there as no company to date has had much of a chance to expose their resources. Here's hoping their government and range can make a go of it.

Re: RRS - Trading Halt...

Hi everyone....

It seems not many interested in here on this one....

Went into trading halt today and you can see on the official puntland Govt website that parliament has approved the Profit Sharing Agreement (PSA) in readiness for the Joint Venture between RRS and Canmex to be approved....

Keep your eyes on this one when it re-opens.....it has a big potential if everything comes off...

Hevlet

Another trading halt


Any thoughts?

Looks good at this stage, but thats the thing with trading halts, can go either way.

I just don't know where to go with this one!! I have bought and sold here for the last 6mths and no longer hold due to the increased domestic problems in Somalia- noted that puntland area is fairly stable province within this region- I ran with a very small profit, and was very pleased to get away with that- it is a 3 cent stock after all!! Just wondering if anyone else has any insight into the trading halt-- PSA approval a few weeks back, Canmex deal finalised very soon...how far can SP go on this one?? Does anyone have the energy to try and value this company with canmex deal finalised??

Have never liked the management...
Beware of ann's that come out after close of market on Fridays

tibby said:

I just don't know where to go with this one!! I have bought and sold here for the last 6mths and no longer hold due to the increased domestic problems in Somalia- noted that puntland area is fairly stable province within this region- I ran with a very small profit, and was very pleased to get away with that- it is a 3 cent stock after all!! Just wondering if anyone else has any insight into the trading halt-- PSA approval a few weeks back, Canmex deal finalised very soon...how far can SP go on this one?? Does anyone have the energy to try and value this company with canmex deal finalised??

Click to expand...

Hi Tibby,

I posted this elsewhere a while ago when I was asking myself the same question (see below).

Since the below post the number of shares has gone up, plus some of the big funds such as RAB capital and Firebird have bought in.

Sovereign risk has IMHO fallen quite dramatically since I wrote the below as well with the Ethiopiens intervening in southern Somalia.

I am hoping for the Canmex JV to come in Monday / Tuesday (note only a hope - I dont actually know). if it does there should be a huge pick up in volume and hopefully a sustained price rise to maybe the sixes or sevens within a week of the announcement. Just my guess / hope however.

Anyway, the below is just my thoughts....if you have not seen the Independant Report on the RRS website I sugest you have a read.

Goodluck to anyone else that holds!! i wont be selling for some time yet no matter what happens after the halt.



Hevlet.


Posted on: Monday 18/12/06 09:38pm

Hi everyone...

I have reconstructed the valuation model tonight done by David Archibald in the Independant Report....i just wanted to throw up some numbers for discussion

When I run the numbers they really do astound me...(don't worry I know I am preaching to the converted in here)

What I really found interesting is based on the model, a discovery of 87.5 Mil barrels at a POO of $60 gives a pre consolidation (I took the number of shares from the EGM documents after share issues to directors, Findlays etc) value per share of 5.6c...

I find this amount interesting as this amount of oil is already shown in the Conoco data for Nogal 1 with the three reported oil shows outlined in the announcement on 23 Nov. A POO of $70 = 6.6c / share.

Even more interesting is that based on 603.5 Mil Barrels (being a most likely outcome from 28-B + the Nogal 1 well already drilled) we have a pre consolidation share price of 38.6c / share ($70 POO = 45.5 c / share).

The numbers people have thrown around here in the past (e.g. 20 Bil barrels - Pie in the Sky??) are just too big to comprehend (Pre consolidation $12.80 / share @ $60 POO & $15.10 @ $70 POO)!

Now I know you will all start saying it is not discounted for soverign risk, future cap raisings etc but this is all based on $60 POO (which I think over the long term is conservative - Peak Oil??) and also only accounts for RRS's 20% share after the potential Canmex JV.

And this excludes the minerals!!

Well it is all fun to run the numbers and dream & I know there is a LOT of risk and a lot to do but I think I tend to agree with those that say the upside is too big to ignore over the long term to have at least a small flutter - for me at least.

Anyways....back to waiting for the JV.......Not long now I hope......

Has anyone else reconstructed or done a model and how do my numbers compare?

Remember to DOYR....I'm not giving advice here....just a novice having a go......and if you do invest be ready to lose the LOT and dont get greedy!!


Hevlet

Kauri said:

Have never liked the management...
Beware of ann's that come out after close of market on Fridays

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What do you think of Sir Sam Jonah on the board then?

He has credibility to me, why would he join the RRS board if the management was dodgy? He wouldnt risk losing his credibilty would he??

You just need to run a google search to see his credentials.

See below for an example of Sir Sam's CV

http://www.businessinafrica.net/leisure/books/175440.htm

Aarise, Sir Jonah
Sir Sam Jonah KBE, ranked amongst Time magazine’s 25 Business Influentials for setting new global standards in management, ethics, marketing and innovation in 2004, is the non-executive president of mining giant Anglogold Ashanti Limited, and is also a director of Anglo American Corporation of South Africa and Anglo American Platinum Corporation. He was recently appointed non-executive chairman of Equinox, a Canadian-Australian listed resource company engaged principally in the exploration and development of mineral properties in Zambia. Jonah is a member of numerous advisory committees, including South African president Thabo Mbeki’s International Investment Advisory Council and President Kufuor’s Ghana Investors’ Advisory Council. He received an honorary Doctor of Science (D.Sc) degree, awarded jointly by the Camborne School of Mines and the University of Exeter (UK).

Born Samuel Essen Jonah on 19 November 1949 in Kibi, a military base in the east of the British Gold Coast colony, he grew up in the “winds of change” that presaged Ghana’s independence in 1957. The family moved to Obuasi where his ex-serviceman father was able to get subcontractor work from the Ashanti Goldfields Corporation. Sam romped through Obuasi elementary school and in 1962 was admitted to Adisel secondary school, a boarding establishment at Cape Coast. In 1969 he applied for and won a trainee position with Ashanti’s Ayeinm mine that included a scholarship for the Camborne School of Mines (CSM) in Cornwall, England. After two years at CSM, including an experience-gathering stint at an Australian gold mine, Jonah returned to Ashanti and in the subsequent 14 years worked his way up to the top and took over the management reins in 1986. At that time the group was producing an annual 210 000 tons of gold; by the time he negotiated the merger with AngloGold in 2004, output had soared to 1,6 million tons, and became, in 1996, the first African-operated company to list on the New York Stock Exchange.

He was knighted in 2003 for his contribution to global business.

In 1999, on Jonah’s watch, Ashanti was taken to the brink of catastrophe and the world’s mining birds of prey gathered to peck at the pending carcass. Ashanti owned some of the most productive gold mines on the continent, then worth over $2bn. Besides the giant Obuasi mine in Ghana, other lucrative operations were sited in Mali, Senegal, Guinea, Sierra Leone, Burkina Faso, Niger, Angola, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Tanzania, Ethiopia and Eritrea. Ashanti’s Geita deposit in Tanzania was being described as “Africa’s new El Dorado”.

The reasons for Ashanti’s sudden vulnerability, and a lucrative target, were wildly fluctuating gold prices coinciding with a short-term liquidity, skittish stockholders dampening the share price and, critically, a gamble on gold prices continuing to fall by putting money into hedge funds, usually taken out as a form of insurance against a decline in output value.

The sudden reversal in the trend of gold prices saw Ashanti’s hedge fund become a terrifying liability, leaving the company in the red to some $570mn. Ashanti’s inability to meet the hedge collateral demands was a breach of other loans and conditions, including revolving credit facilities, project finance lenders and numerous bondholders. With a balance sheet debt of $400mn, the banks’ total credit exposure to Ashanti, including the hedge losses, touched $1bn as the gold price continued its ascent.

“A rack of missiles released by hedge counterparties, bankers, shareholders and the international press fell towards Jonah and Ashanti,” writes Taylor. “In the pause before they detonated, the beleaguered chief executive prepared to lose the job and career he’d planned and painstakingly forged from the age of 19. The bodysnatchers gathered around. Lonmin cut its original offer of $840mn down to $665mn, citing these losses. Others included the Saudi Arabian investor Prince Al-Waleed Bin Talal Bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, the Canadian-based Placer Dome mining group, and AngloGold of South Africa. Lonmin, already a substantial shareholder and management contractee, was favourite to take the prize.

However, Ashanti’s bankers, financial advisor and largest hedge fund creditor, Goldman Sachs, were not prepared to accept a quick sell-off. The crisis came to an end in February 2000 when a $100mn bridging facility was arranged by Barclays Bank as a stop-gap until a $326mn four-tranche refinancing package was concluded.

“The five-month trauma was strangely comforting to Jonah,” observes Taylor. “If he had survived this far, he told himself, then he could survive anything.”

As it turned out, the episode was Ashanti’s rebirth.

Sam Jonah’s board memberships


Director (non-executive), Mittal Steel SA
Director, Lonmin Plc
Director, Standard Bank Group Limited
CEO and Group MD, AngloGold Ashanti
Director, AngloGold Ashanti Limited
Chairperson, Limestone Products (Ghana)
Chairperson, First Atlantic Merchant Bank Ltd
Director, Defiance Mining Corp
Executive chairperson, Equator Exploration
Non-executive chairman, Equinox

hevlet said:

What do you think of Sir Sam Jonah on the board then?

He has credibility to me, why would he join the RRS board if the management was dodgy? He wouldnt risk losing his credibilty would he??

You just need to run a google search to see his credentials.

Click to expand...

Do a google of the real movers and shakers behind the company, try Cayman Islands as well, see if you can find out who sold their current Aus leases to the company, or just ask anyone involved in mining in W.A. Check out the issuing of management options while you are at it. Do you know who sold the rights to Punterland to them? And no, I don't hold shares in RRS, and never have.

Kauri said:

Do a google of the real movers and shakers behind the company, try Cayman Islands as well, see if you can find out who sold their current Aus leases to the company, or just ask anyone involved in mining in W.A. Check out the issuing of management options while you are at it. Do you know who sold the rights to Punterland to them? And no, I don't hold shares in RRS, and never have.

Click to expand...

Kauri,

I'm not going to get into the merits of some of management's past dealings (e.g. look at one management member's connections in the past to CCI and how that turned out. I know there is a good chance I would lose if I did, i'm not ignorant of the past.

My question still remains however, why would Sir Sam get involved in a company with these people if there was a chance things would go really badly wrong?

He IMHO has too much to lose....Reputations can be lost in an instant in this game......and he has a very good one!

& what do you think of the recent development of RAB Capital and Firebird taking big stakes in the company? They wouldnt take big positions in such a small company lightly would they?

Also, would Lukas Lundin want a company that he controls in CANMEX (if they sign) to be involved with a company with no chance of anything good ever happening?

I'm not denying the risks involved here, its not for the faint hearted, but dont you think this one could be worth just a small flutter??



Hevlet

Yep, probably worth a flutter..

By the way, who is Firebird, apart from them being based in Cayman Island ? Can't say I've ever heard of them.(that was a capital raising by issuing new shares and free options).

Note that there are now 1.7 billion shares and 1.3 billion options out there now, must be due for a consolidation soon.

Kauri said:

Yep, probably worth a flutter..

By the way, who is Firebird, apart from them being based in Cayman Island ? Can't say I've ever heard of them.(that was a capital raising by issuing new shares and free options).

Note that there are now 1.7 billion shares and 1.3 billion options out there now, must be due for a consolidation soon.

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At the moment there are a lot of shares....

Consolidation coming ..... 20 - 1 in the next few months....

Should also be another cap raising considering the AIM listing they are planning....

Order of events as I can work them out....

Sign CANMEX JV

Buy out Consort share of Puntland rights...

Cap raising in UK?

Listing on AIM in the UK ......

Sign more MOU with view to JV for offshore oil rights and onshore minerals??

With regard to website for Firebird see below, they are based in New York and manage nearly $3 Billion in funds.

http://www.fbird.com/

Hevlet

Range Resources requested a Suspention this morning.

SSDD. Open high on ann. selling down to negative. It happened at least a dozen time already! I have very small holding, just like a lotto ticket, buying it for hope, not trading, least for investment!

Range will post another ANN soon and I have been told it will have a dramatic impact on their shares
The problem with RRS shares is that they have too many, 90 million were traded the other day after the farm-in was announced. Me thinkin that Range will have have to under some kind of BuyBack Scheme.
Buy Back Scheme is explained in the link below for anyone not understanding the term...

http://www.asic.gov.au/fido/fido.nsf/byheadline/What+happens+in+a+share+buy-back??openDocument

We'll have to wait and see....

M1llion said:

Range will post another ANN soon and I have been told it will have a dramatic impact on their shares
The problem with RRS shares is that they have too many, 90 million were traded the other day after the farm-in was announced. Me thinkin that Range will have have to under some kind of BuyBack Scheme.
Buy Back Scheme is explained in the link below for anyone not understanding the term...

http://www.asic.gov.au/fido/fido.nsf/byheadline/What+happens+in+a+share+buy-back??openDocument

We'll have to wait and see....

Click to expand...

but isnt that the reason why range is having a 20-1 consolidation?

M1llion said:

Range will post another ANN soon and I have been told it will have a dramatic impact on their shares
The problem with RRS shares is that they have too many, 90 million were traded the other day after the farm-in was announced. Me thinkin that Range will have have to under some kind of BuyBack Scheme.
Buy Back Scheme is explained in the link below for anyone not understanding the term...

http://www.asic.gov.au/fido/fido.nsf/byheadline/What+happens+in+a+share+buy-back??openDocument

We'll have to wait and see....

Click to expand...

sure they will have another ann soon, as drop dead date once again closing in

the ann would tell us if is another delay or JV is done

buyback scheme? they dont have the cash?