RRS - Range Resources

[Archinos]

A bit of action these last few trading days.
Hedging bets on future stability due to recent talks?
Garoweonline article

check out this SMHerald article & reference to eResearch rpt.
SMH rpt RRS

{Range Resources - the tiddler with exploration rights in Somalia's Puntland province - has paid Canadian firm eResearch $US17,500 ($22,800) to produce a 24-page "independent" research report released yesterday.
Although Range is listed as a "high-risk, speculative buy" with a price target of 4.6c, 39 per cent above the current share price, the Canucks seem to have kept true to their "independent" word.

Their valuation implies a 1 per cent probability of success that Range will have the 19 billion barrels of oil it believes are in place in Puntland. Not to mention a 35 per cent discount because even the more stable Puntland province of Somalia makes for a "risky investment proposition".

Analysts noted there were matters for concern, such as the "large number of outstanding options and impending additional share issues". Nevertheless, eResearch said there was "interesting capital appreciation potential" for investors willing to take a punt.

Many of those shareholders were eagerly awaiting a presentation in Perth yesterday by new Range chairman Sir Sam Jonah, who also serves as president of South African gold major AngloGold Ashanti. But he was a no-show at the Africa DownUnder conference due to "work commitments".

Range shares closed steady yesterday at 3.3c.}

eResearch rpt:

RRS rpt eResearch

 

[stiger]

This mob are like St Kilda.Dyor Cheers.

 

[Archinos]

So I'm wondering what's behind the action on RRS today? Considering the bombing of the parliament bld & near assasination of the president on Monday (his brother was killed), what's going on now?

 

[tarnor]

could be leaky who knows loaded up in case, tight stop tho

 

[beach]

Tarnor, Archinos
ive been reading all the notes on this thread, Archinos i cant help laughing at all the caos that is going on with this company, why would you bother gambling with your hard earned when you are quite clearly a clever bloke that could put your resouces into more stable stocks with big gains without the risk, but mate if it comes off for you ill be the first to shake your hand because your just giving it a go. just reading the report on the 1% probability of the big one giving it a valuation of 4.7 cents. imagine what would happen if they did find massive paydirt, or who ever farms in and does all the exploring and writes the letter to ranger stating that theve hit the big one, anyway whats your take on the trading halt, has puntland been overrun by islamic militants and is now using ranges ship containers for inteligents purposes. by the way i just love all the spin on this one so to keep me interested i bought a mil yesterday and just had to laugh when at 6.30pm there was a trading halt, man what iam i doing, i should of gone to crown and put me 30 grand on black, i think i will next time. regards beach

 

[Archinos]

good luck guys - the next few days should be very interesting

 

[CanOz]

Range is a great name for this stock.....all it does is range.

 

[beach]

well trading suspention, there is no doubt in my mind that range is in massive trouble,, the reason is the current situation in somalia, they are on the brink of civil war with the UIC united islamic courts, basically the TGF which is a US back government put in place since 2004 has been overtaken by the UIC in the south of somalia, there hasnt been much violence but the people of somalia wouldnt have put up much of a fight anyway, a transitional( a SUV mounted with a machine gun) would be no match for a few stones and a stick that most somalians would be able to use to combat the UIC, but how ever the UIC might be a good thing for the worn town country of somalia that has put up with a warlord type of clan style government for the past 15 years. well what is this got to do with range, (RRS) well Puntland is where range wishes to do all the exploration of vast oil reserves which are believed to be there. at this fragile stage there is no known UIC in puntland which is a automanist state of Somalia at this stage but this could change very rapidly as the UIC have moved well up to the north of somalia in a short ammount of time where the borders of Puntland begin, it is believed that ethiopia has possible been a helping hand in helping puntland in the case of being taken over by the UIC which in my mind is inevitable because the current government in Puntland have lost huge support due to lack of development and unable to relieve the poverty and the high taxes that the residance of puntland face with the current government. The UIC may be seen as savours in many eyes and will be welcome in puntland leaving the government which struck the deal with Range licking its wounds. where does this leave range? well i dont know how they would deal with the islamic courts but it would be very suspect as the islamist seem very anti western so a foreign company comming in to take away there oil and gas wouldnt be the done thing in my opinion, so i reckon Range is up the creek. and we are all going to lose the flippen lot. so iam now going to read out ranges last rights in this issue, they are finished. a dodgy company in a dodgy place, i just wish that range was never brought to my attention, regards beach ps you win some and you lose some

 

[Archinos]

Beach
check your email. Market talk revolves ard a JV, possibly involving Lundin. Could be BS, could be on the money. EGM is just over 2 weeks away - lots of things to resolve, needs solid news - hence the timing might be as anticipated. A suspension is par for course for RRS for the past 6 mths with biggish news. We will have to wait to see what news will arrive.
Sure things are afoot in the sth, but IMHO Puntland has been relatively stable for the last 10 yrs - Somaliland even more so. While the ICU have (for the moment) control of several towns, not all the locals have been content - witness demonstrations in Kismaayo. Whatever - they need stability in the sth.
As for strategic position re ICU push Nth into Puntland - Ethiopia border effectively creates a bottleneck across the Galguduud & Mudug regions - also Hiiraan & Beledweyne towns which are accessed from Ethiopia via existing rd. I don't think the situation in Puntland is as drastic as you portray, but then again I could be wrong. All this & more is why it's a spec stock at 0.03. Wait for the announcement.

 

[Archinos]

Oh also - being islamic does not necessarily mean you can not do business with the west. Long term stability will need (apart from law) nation building: infrastructure & raising of living standards etc. Fast tracking this, or making up for lost time will mean utilisation of natural resources - something Somalia cannot do on it's own. Hence, deals. No one I know really knows the inner working of the RRS deal, however the concerns expressed by the TFG should ring true no matter what religion - hence the press for Production Sharing Agreements etc - a way to legalise the extraction of natural resources without all the financial benefits bypassing the local community & leaving the country. I dare say even the ICU will understand standard business practice.
...who knows... so many things to play out. Wait for the announcement & then we'll revisit the topic?
cheers

 

[beach]

gday archinos, yes i must admitt iam portraying a very negative light on somalia, and until i can see through all the mud i will be very much on my gaurd with the current state of affairs, the big question is wether the ICU are a radical organisation about to set up an islamic republic in a very sensitave area of the world. not that an islamic republic would be a bad thing if it is genuine and is against terrorism. we could learn alot from these guys and interesting enough the US dosnt seem to be that concerned yet on the situation or does the US just have its hands 2 full at the minute, make no mistake that the US are very active in the region. a taliban stye ICU would be the US worst nightmare. ive heard of a few demonstration by some somalians with regard to some laws been set out like not being able to go to cenimas to watch movies after 9pm women not alload to swim in the sea. and a few other petty things that seem a bit rediculious to me and you, but islam is a differant religion and we will just have to respect that i suppose. ive also heard of some secret meetings with the puntland gov and the UCI in dubia just recently interesting enough if the rumours are true,, some say this might be a stunt by the puntland gov to try and get some credibitity back from the people that are not happy with the punt gov and think the ICU might be th go so to speak. then i hear that ethiopian troops have been pooring into puntland to help against any attack from the ICU, well my opinion is if the ICU show that they are the good guys in the south and have one the hearts and minds of the locals (clans) ets then it would just be a matter of time before puntland would became ICU decided by the people not ethiopian troops, maybe this is part of the secret talks with punt gov and ICU if rumoured to be true. so many ifs and but and look forward to more discussion on the region, and then theres range RRS well they have certainly got some big dudes on there board ready to get things started, amazingly i think but do we really know what is going on here. well lundin or some other big company or not there is a long way to go and would any deals done with the current gov stand up if the ICU take control, the best situation that i could see for range would be a coalition between the 2 or the ICU gone altogether from somalia and back to the US backed warlords, which i dont think will happen. or the ICU toyally in control and deal with range and its board with no hassel, so many variables here. the not so good would be all out war which is a possibility lets hope not. regards beach

 

[beach]

just wondering archinos did you hear of a possible AIM listing for RRS, also did read that somalia is not on LUNDINS future development plans, that was a few months ago so could of changed. well also whats the reason for a trading halt then an upgrade to suspension all about, whats the next step trading ceased altogether punters go home. regards beach

 

[Archinos]

hi beach
a request for suspension from trading can be made by a company once the due date from the initial trading halt comes up and (for whatever reason) the company needs some more time before release of the announcement. It is not necessarily a bad sign. Once suspended, all orders in the suspended security are automatically purged at the end of the day of suspension, and once trading resumes (once the announcement is made) the bidding game begins again.
Yes have heard of AIM listing play. Was mentioned in a previous rpt as part of their strategy. Methinks from the chat the 20:1 consolidation and capital raisings are part of the plan for eventual AIM listing. Lundin is getting a lot of mention. Being previous lease holders they probably have a heap of data - RRS could be trying to source that, or it could be JV talk. Who knows.
In the meantime waiting, waiting... gives me a chance to catch up on some work.

 

[Archinos]

so beach did you get out this mornings opening for a nice profit?

 

[beach]

gday archinos, well thought id off load half my holdings and see what happens there after, but after the days end wished id just sold the lot, must of been so many punters just waiting for this type of announcement and were going to bail out asap. iam just wondering if the remaining 20% is farmed out and rrs take the 60% of any agreement moneys paid then affectivley range wouldnt hold any of the future oil production if found. would i be correct. range have done alot of ground work here and are they selling them selves short or is this normal practice for such a small company to get a bigger player in rather than take on the risk them selves. or maybe investors of range raising 25 mil for half the cost for a 50:50 interest with longer term prospererity if there is significant hydrocarons found. what do you think mate are you still in. regards beach

 

[Archinos]

morning beach
check your email. That's not my understanding of the proposed deal. RRS 20% free carried till $50mill Canmex money spent within 4yrs fro Canmex to earn 80%. Further 20% farm out will come from Canmex's 80% share: backdoor for Canmex to have other company onboard (perhaps KNOC), with RRS 60:40 Canmex split of signon $. As yet I cannot confirm: Canmex a shell company for Lundin Oil director, has been looking for a start up project - typical corporate play by Lundin & history of developing monster resource plays and then onselling.
Looks like the announcement was timed as the teaser for the upcoming EGM, with bigger news afterwards (avoiding a situation re: the CDU director options saga?)? In the meantime crossing fingers that the place wont literally blow up in everyones face - lots of conflicting rpts of troop movements & threats etc in the sth. IMHO movements are designed to block major access rds & limit IUC to the sth. Who knows. Interesting times.
For now I hold
cheers

 

[Archinos]

I don't want to be seen as ramping this one since the risk is so hi - still not sure of the Lundin link - FYI, DYOR & I don't endourse any opinions in the following: got it from another poster - pay for view article?
http://www.theglobeandmail.com etc

-- Lukas Lundin and his family's Lundin Mining Group of companies are to mining in Canada what IKEA is to home furnishing. Both are Swedish, and both have a business model that they replicate again and again to their advantage.

For IKEA, that means making money in suburban centres among families and twentysomethings, while Mr. Lundin has at times earned his keep in war-torn countries and others red-flagged on the Foreign Affairs security advisory list, sometimes dealing with dictators.

But even though Mr. Lundin has been a Vancouver-based global resource owner for more than 15 years, he has finally arrived as a major local player with rising visibility and money to spare. He now ranks among the few big-time B.C. mining figures such as Robert Friedland and Frank Giustra. Mr. Lundin, his father Adolf and brother Ian also own Lundin Petroleum AB, one of the largest oil and gas companies in Sweden.

Evidence of the good times includes a party costing more than $100,000 that Mr. Lundin threw at his Whistler home for staff, associates and friends to celebrate a good year in 2005. There are also philanthropic gifts that include a million-dollar-plus donation to clean up the historic Britannia mine that stands out as environmental problem and eyesore on the scenic drive to Whistler, and a new foundation, Lundin for Africa, which has raised $1.5-million to open orphanages and provide fresh water.

Critics might suggest that is the least he can do, as the Lundin family has drawn heat at times for owning mining assets in troubled regions such as the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), which has suffered more than 10 years of ethnic clashes and five million war-related deaths. The Lundins counter that major finds are often in areas that are unpopular with the general public.

No Guts No Glory, a biography of Adolf Lundin by a Swedish business journalist, says that Lundin-owned Tenke Mining Corp.'s investment in the DRC originated in negotiations between the former president and dictator Mobutu Sese Seko and Adolf Lundin. The talks led to a deal for the famous Tenke Fungurume copper and cobalt mine in which the Lundins beat out larger worldwide mining concerns. Ten years later, Tenke Mining brought in U.S. giant Phelps Dodge Corp. as a majority partner and just received government approval to start production.

Earlier this week, Lundin Mining Corp. also invested $5.2-million in Sunridge Gold Corp. of Vancouver to be used for its copper, gold and zinc projects in another troubled African country, Eritrea, which has unresolved border issues with Ethiopia. The Eritrean government also shows signs of instability with respect to foreign investment in this sector as it shut down all mining exploration in that country just over a year ago to review its position on the issue. It has since reinstated mining as usual.

Owning projects in troubled and dangerous political regions used to differentiate Mr. Lundin and a small group of mining players from the pack, but analysts say this is about to change. Demand from Asia is forcing mining companies to choose between starting the development process on weaker deposits in friendly areas on the assumption that strong metal prices will continue or pushing ahead with better deposits in less comfortable areas, such as central Asia, according to David Coffin, editor of the Hard Rock Analyst, a mining newsletter. Phelps Dodge, for example, just announced it will open its first new copper mine in the United States.

For those interested in adding political uncertainty and risk to their portfolio of economic concerns, Mr. Lundin's business model, which has been based on finding and investing in distressed and undervalued mining assets in troubled or unfriendly environments, is worth watching. In fact, Mr. Lundin might be the mining equivalent of TV home renovator Bob Vila, because he tends to focus not on the traditional and heady fare of exploration, but rather picking up and refurbishing mines at later stages of development.

This business model has worked so well that Mr. Lundin has accumulated a group of 11 Canadian-based mining companies, most with global resource assets, that have increased their combined market capitalization to $3.8-billion in 2005 from $242-million in 2003. He readily admits that a short time ago he was holding "a lot of shells with no projects."

In fact, investors closely follow Mr. Lundin's deals. If "you stuck to the Lundin Group like glue over the past few years when the companies were dirt cheap" you would have made a ton of money, says one broker.

Mr. Lundin has such an eye for value that he helped to develop an Argentinean gold project that has generated money for three separate Vancouver-based mining concerns.

The issues associated with difficult but hot mining areas are high on the agenda for many B.C. miners. While Mr. Lundin makes finding the balance between risk and return look relatively easy, remember, he also just road a motorcycle from Cairo to Cape Town.

He can afford to wait until the right deal comes along.

 

[beach]

gday archinos, thanks for your views on RRS much appreciated,sold rest of my holdings @.032 this morning, after all profiting is the name of the game and sediment was slidding i felt from the initial news out the other day. for the time being thought thous funds would best placed some where else as RRS could just slide further or remain steady till more developments, or i could be totally wrong and will shoot up again next week, the situation in somalia is very edgy and has me on my toes as it could go all belly up in a second, thats why this is such a risky play for the short term atleast, as i read before that your in for the longer term so to avoid all the crap inbetween, i will be doing some more DD on RRS in the comming weeks and will be watching very closely. it is a very news related stock, well i mean seems to generate a big push for the very short term then moveback down very qquick as appose to moving higher and higher. the perfect spec stock day tradder thing IMO, regards beach. ps have a good weekend dont work to hard.

 

[Archinos]

On ya beach - can't go broke making a profit.

 

[idribble]

If Range can get Canmex over the line it will be game on! The investment community will sit up and take notice that an international major player is getting in on the ground floor.

It will speak volumes about the improving political situation in Puntland.

4 weeks and counting.