RRS - Range Resources

[Archinos]

So I see the tree is being shaken & the nervous nellies are rattled. I also see that the buyer @ .03 for 10mill shares is starting to get some bites. It will be interesting to see if the bottom is nigh - esp since we have yet to hear anything about the NKOC agreement. Could be a volatile week ahead.
Whoa - as I wrote I saw the buyer @ .03 wake up and take 5 mill off his order. Wonder if it will pop up a bit lower, or that's enough for now?

 

[$unny]

i was thinking of getting in to this stock, around 0.03-4 it moves alot 1 cent here 1 cent there, u think its a good time to get into it now? can the comopany do any worse?

 

[Archinos]

Hi $unny
I'm not about to give any solid trading advice on this one since sure, it could get a lot worse, but then again they might just pull it off. When I think of this venture, I think of the trading ships of old - the promise of rich rewards for investors, but only if the ship makes it back.
There are lots of negatives regarding soverign risk; recent news is that the locals of Magia Yahan (the region with gold potential) held a meeting comdemming the actions of (& agreement between) the Puntlad Gov & Range as unlawful (aside from being really pissed by what is alleged to have happened there). Until the legislation that governs exploration & mining activities is emplaced these type of issues will continue (they did say they would be supportive of mining activities if the correct laws were enacted).
By their actions it seems the Puntland gov is fully committed to making this thing work, but Range could be playing with fire if the local admin does not act responsibly & instead forces things with a gun.
Then there's the recent seizure of Mogadishu by the Islamic courts & all the political shennanigans that have been and will continue to transpire. For the sake of discussion, while the Tran Fed Gov might not be viable in the long term, it seems Puntland might be able to exist in its own right (as it virtually does right now) - there are plenty of countries with current political/religous turmoil that are still mineral/oil producers - the money potential & strategic importance of energy reserves seems to be enough for the big companies to persist. So IMHO a significant test as to the viability of Range's operations is whether they can in the immediate future get either the NKOC or some other Co to sign on the dotted line - and in parallel the govs get their legislation in order. Signing should be a matter of days-weeks. Legislation, months.
I guess a small punt (that you'd be OK with losing - but then again, who likes that) might be in order, since what does it matter if you pay 2, 3 cents etc when in a years time it could be trading at many multiples. I wouldn't bet the house though - I haven't.

 

[$unny]

ok thanks for that good read!

 

[Archinos]

And for another good read look at Garowe online - they've just posted an article stating that the TFG has just released the draft of the new proposed Petroleum legislation. How this will impact things is anyones guess...
cheers

 

[Brissydave]

Reading the Garowe online press release, the general principles of their petroleum law seem pretty decent to me ... a whole lot of countries could learn something here --- if the final law is true to this spirit.

Cheers ... Dave

 

[Archinos]

Yeah, but my mind drifts back as to what was agreed btw the Puntland Gov & the TFG the other week & whether Range will hold onto their agreements. By all accounts I still think the will of the Punt gov is firmly behind the agreement. I find it hard to imagine that the Punt gov were not aware that this "petroleum law workshop" was on hand as the negotiations were in progress. Or are there still acting as competing factions & the TFG have beaten them to the punch? You can't deny that the pace of change has certainly picked up. Looks like the options action has picked up a bit.

 

[Archinos]

Now I'm really confused! If the latest news on Garoweonline is factual, then I'm wondering what the hell it all means for RRS. Apparently the TFG has outsourced licensing of oil exploration leases etc to the African Institure of Maritime Research & Northbridge Services Group. Anyone with more info on this and what the heck it might mean wrt Puntland agreements etc?
cheers

 

[Archinos]

Post script:
from a bit of web searching it looks like Northbridge is a private security firm (mercs) providing & facilitating all sorts of services, and articles abound linking them to the (former) likes of Executive Outcomes etc. They sound like they shouldn't be trifled with.
Can anyone else shed some light on things?
When all the dust has settled will this mob be controlling the off-shore leases - while Puntland/RRS cuts a deal to control the onshore ones in Puntland?
It's getting really interesting...

 

[Brissydave]

12:55 and RRS is up over 18% with no announcement .... plus a rise of about 6% yesterday .... these guys have got to get a speeding ticket.

Any ideas on what is driving this sudden price increase .... not that I am complaining, as I am holding, but is it all just a house of cards, about to collapse??

Cheers ... Dave

 

[Brissydave]

OK, so no speeding ticket as RRS lost everything it had made up in the morning, by close of trade, but I'm still curious to see if anyone has "heard" anything that could be behind the spike in price and volume.

Cheers ... Dave

 

[Archinos]

Hi Brissydave
yeah I was wondering about a ticket too. Lots of volume & movement these last few days. I was out bush a week ago (I'm a geo) so I've had little chance to do much research except that Garoweonline has mentioned renegotiations of the RRS-Puntland agreement a couple of times (21 June was the last). If this is true then it is probably in response to the moves by the TFG regarding the new proposed laws & appointments. Lots of interesting things going on in the political scene too. Without any other hard data I'd guess (and it is all guessing...) it's a combination of opportunistic investing in the current Aust resource cycle + hot money (ie speculation - for the last 4 yrs I've followed the general rule of buy in around Aug/Sept, get out April/May - a combination of financial year cycle/seasonal weather dictating exploration/drilling-lab analysis-reporting of results), anticipation of further news re the agreements (buy on the rumor), anticipation of lab results. And I'm wondering hard on the lab results since enough time has passed since March for the soils etc to have been assayed (or bloody close); are they sitting on them till the scene stabilises a bit & more agreement is reached?
Don't know. I'm holding a parcel for the med-long term though, so the recent volatility & resource cycle hasn't disturbed my sleep any (only the soccer has done that!).
cheers

 

[Brissydave]

Bumping this topic up on the back of a seemingly positive announcement .... plus app %10 gain yesterday and %6+ so far today

any thoughts or input appreciated

 

[Archinos]

Hi Brissydave
cutting thru the spin, Range look to have positioned themselves nicely in the box seat for exploration & development in Puntland- renegotiating the agreement in the face of political pressure & the changes recently enacted by the TFG (re: legislation & 'blocks') is really the only way to go if they are to have any chance of proceeding at a reasonable pace with legal backing. From the reports they've picked the plumbs out of the region, though how the offshore carve up is to proceede is anyones guess at this moment (recalling the new TFG agreement for the protection of sealanes etc in exchange for control of the offshore concessions...). According to Garoweonline the local Puntland Gov debated the new Range agreement and passed it yesterday - a significant change in the way previous arrangements have been negotiated & ratified. I'm wondering if this new agreement will now pass the muster with those higher up the food chain in the TFG. Looks like a lot of things are coming to a head towards the end of the month - so many wild cards...
cheers

 

[stockmaster]

There has a high volumn of trading, 22 m traded today, sounds like something is happening

 

[Archinos]

Looks like the Garoweonline article was accurate reuntland parlimentary ratification of the RRS agreement.

 

[Brissydave]

Re: RRS - Trading Halt

Perfect time for a trading halt .... just before a potentially RED day on the market.

But regardless everything is looking good with recent announcements ... this could be a very nice announcement on Monday or Tuesday ... today's a day I am glad to be holding (just hope the DOW recovers tonight).

Cheers .... Dave

 

[Archinos]

Yeah, likewise.
IMHO though, despite what the general markets might do, if these guys pull this off & hit paydirt, they'll be heading to the stratosphere.
From the tone of the 12/7/06 announcement, might we expect something pertaining to the last sentence "shortly reporting on other key developments as negotiations conclude"? Apart from common typos, Povey has dropped hints like this before. Lets hope so, and lets hope it's positive.
cheers

 

[stockmaster]

Heavy trading once again, but this time is price is going downward.

 

[Archinos]

Picked up a line in the one of the Garoweonline articles re: Puntland parliament adjourning on Sunday, having 'debated and ratified several motions...including exploration agreements, coast guard contracts...etc'.
see http://www.garoweonline.com/stories/publish/article_4564.shtml.
Interesting... wonder if this relates to any of RRS's latest dealings. I'm also wondering how the unrest to the south might be influencing ongoing negotiations, but good to hear the coast security situation might now be addressed (where does that leave the recent TFG deal regarding their coast guard & off shore exploration deal?).
Still keen on this one (recently increased my exposure), but it sure is like high-stakes poker!