RIO - Rio Tinto

[3MT]

Stockwiz, you probably read in some trading book about not trading on emotion. Don't try and get even with the stock market because its done you wrong lately and don't trade with money you can't afford to lose.

Satisfying those 2 criterias, you ready to go then.

The RIO bid for me is now looking almost unlikely to happen in the short
term. tigthening credit market and increasing cost of credit, bad economic fundamentals depressing metal prices and the biggest downer, a falling BHP share price.

BHP was relying on its SP strength as a weapon. Back then at $45plus it was a potent weapon.

For now anyway, the market has moved on (and I doubt RIO have reduced their expectations on what the right price should be). Regardless, BHP is now left with a situation where it needs to increase both script and cash(debt) substantially to succeed with this acquisition.

Maybe the market was just desperate to inject some much needed good news in the last 10 days. A bid rumour does add spice to it.

So I guess a long on RIO is probably not the best move at the moment. Maybe after 6 months.

http://www.businessspectator.com.au...f-an-increased-bid-for-Rio-AZ5YB?OpenDocument

 

[Kauri]

An aussie bank was buying goodly amounts of AUD in the market Fri, rumour linked it to +ve AUD M/A activity... at the same time RIO puts on a spurt with vol (about $770mln traded for the day..) that takes it from a $110 opening to a close on its highs of $124 that suggests more than mums and dads are going in with their ears pinned back... maybe...
Cheers
.........Kauri of the pinned back ears variety..

 

[Captain_Chaza]

RIO was up nearly 7% in overnight trading in NY Friday night
BHP was up nearly 1%

Seems to me the deal is done or
Could it be a blocking technique or
The emergence of another Predator?

The Prey always moves higher than the Predator

Salute and Gods speed

 

[Kauri]

RIO was up nearly 7% in overnight trading in NY Friday night
BHP was up nearly 1%

Seems to me the deal is done or
Could it be a blocking technique or
The emergence of another Predator?

The Prey always moves higher than the Predator

Salute and Gods speed

Hedge-funds,punters, Kennas and other associated peoples who might be in the know... possibly..
Cheers
.........Kauri

 

[ithatheekret]

I would think Kloppers would up the ante .

A lot of people think it's Wayne Swan who'll get the last say on the RIO takeover , I tend to think the decision will come from across the Atlantic , they own the most of it ..................

 

[ithatheekret]

I forgot to ask .

Do people realise what this takeover is all about ?

The way I see it Kloppers wants to become Mr.Coal , it's not about iron ore or anything else , it's coals . The cheapest available resource that there's plenty of , for a raging emerging market sector . Coal power .

Taking RIO will virtually give BHP a coal monopoly , that it can put to pressure on it's rivals or those that would aim to be .

 

[tronic72]

WOW, I'm surprised there's no posts on the RIO forum. Has anyone seen the dozens of new articles about the BHP take over deal written in the last 24 hours. BHP are arranging finance to take over the Alcan loan from RIO.

It's a sign of the market that the share goes up 5% on Friday and then down another 5% today for no real reason and yet the rumours mill is in over drive virtually saying it's about to happen. I topped up my RIO shares today.

Was I the only one?

 

[shares]

I picked some up as well, and as usual, as soon as my buy order went through, the price drops a $1

Take a look at this ...

http://news.independent.co.uk/business/news/article3356225.ece

Quote:

"Last week, analysts predicted that the offer may have to be as high as 3.8 BHP shares for each Rio share, in addition to a 30 per cent takeover premium."

If the take over bid is just for 3.8 BHP Shares (at the current price of 34.24) for every 1 Rio share, the Rio share price may be at least $130.

I wish :

But you would think the offer would be for more as the company rejected 3.58 BHP shares and $16.50 for each Rio share which would currently calculate to $138.22 per Rio share ...

Article about BHP arranging their finance:

http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/newstex/AFX-0013-22387391.htm

 

[ithatheekret]

WOW, I'm surprised there's no posts on the RIO forum. Has anyone seen the dozens of new articles about the BHP take over deal written in the last 24 hours. BHP are arranging finance to take over the Alcan loan from RIO.

It's a sign of the market that the share goes up 5% on Friday and then down another 5% today for no real reason and yet the rumours mill is in over drive virtually saying it's about to happen. I topped up my RIO shares today.

Was I the only one?

No I'm with you on them Tronic , have a holding from when Adam was a kid , pick some out at 118's the last week , thinking of doing it again as I sold the 150 I bought at 121.80 and I'm looking to buy that parcel back now the price has declined again . Many thanks to Kauri too , he's been spotting the moves in the FX , which I was pondering , but he clarified it , then the LSE confirmed it in price movement .

 

[radar23]

Does something look wrong here? After close someone is selling Rio shares at 10.5..... Surely a mistake?

 

[agro]

just a note of observation

IAP of RIO is -$12 after nominating to oppose BHP's bid..

i wonder why this is esp when it rose in america to my understanding??

Shareholder disapproval?

 

[tigerboi]

rio tinto finds 3bn tonnes of iron ore

Rio tinto announced after the market closed of the discovery of 3bn tonnes

of iron ore,looks like bhp will have to go to 5/1 + now..rio looking good on

open tomorrow..

 

[dj_420]

Does something look wrong here? After close someone is selling Rio shares at 10.5..... Surely a mistake?

Prob no mistake, thats to make sure they get sold. It doesn't mean they would actually sell for 10.5, they would be matched up in pre auction.

 

[mlevit]

RIO opened at $155 today, its 52 week high. I've been holding since August last year and not too sure what to do with it these days.

1. Does anyone think BHP will attempt another bid for RIO, one that RIO will actually accept?
2. Since the resource boom in China is nearly at full steam ahead, are we expecting resource stocks like RIO to keep rising? or is $155 overpriced?

 

[nizar]

RIO opened at $155 today, its 52 week high. I've been holding since August last year and not too sure what to do with it these days.

1. Does anyone think BHP will attempt another bid for RIO, one that RIO will actually accept?
2. Since the resource boom in China is nearly at full steam ahead, are we expecting resource stocks like RIO to keep rising? or is $155 overpriced?

Ive seen a few reports saying the next bid will be 3.8 BHP shares per RIO.
With BHP's share price at $50, that values RIO at a lot higher than $155.

But the talk of a higher bid could just be rumours, still, when theres smoke theres fire.

But even at todays market price, RIO is trading at a discount to 3.4 BHP shares which was the original takeover bid.

 

[njc.corp]

RIO opened at $155 today, its 52 week high. I've been holding since August last year and not too sure what to do with it these days.

1. Does anyone think BHP will attempt another bid for RIO, one that RIO will actually accept?
2. Since the resource boom in China is nearly at full steam ahead, are we expecting resource stocks like RIO to keep rising? or is $155 overpriced?

Mlevit-i can't advise u on what to do or when to buy or sell-

but when u bought in august-did u have a target of what u wanted the stock to go to?

has it been reached?-

thats how i operate-when i buy something-it has to have a target or a good sale value-

Either good luck,and well done on buying in that time period-

Thanks

Nick--

 

[Miner]

PATIENCE PAYS OFF

China's Baosteel agrees 2008 iron ore term prices
SHANGHAI, June 23 (Reuters) - China's largest steel maker Baosteel <600019.SS> has agreed to pay up to 96.5 percent more for its 2008 iron ore under a term contract with Australian miner Rio Tinto (RIO.AX


RIO TINTO23 June,200823/06/2008 23:15 Sydney, Australia. (REPORTED BY REUTER IN NINEMSN )
Value Change % Change
137.580 -1.020 -0.740%

Company overview
Real-time quote
RIO.AX , 137.580, -1.020, -0.740%), Baosteel said in a e-mailed statement on Monday.

Baosteel agreed to a 79.88 percent price rise of Pilbara blend fines and Yandicoogina fines, and a 96.5 percent price rise of Pilbara blend lump, the company said in the statement.

 

[subaru69]

Apart from the recent volatility, I have a lot of trouble understanding RIO's SP lately. I thought maybe it was overcooked at $135 but then the substantial increases in IO contracts came out which IMO should have at least maintained the SP.

Hopefully the Q2 results will pull things back up tomorrow, as I'm holding.

Assuming the BHP takeover goes ahead and BHP is ~$40, then that should value RIO @ $136 (3.4:1).

Is there something I'm totally missing?:bonk:

 

[mshepherd]

Maybe the take over isnt as likely as it once may have been. Rio released a very positive Q2 report, the more productive/profitable Rio is the more unlikely BHP will succeed in a hostile take over, hence drop in share price due to good report. BHP I beleive is due to release their Q2 report sometime soon.

 

[oldblue]

Apart from the recent volatility, I have a lot of trouble understanding RIO's SP lately. I thought maybe it was overcooked at $135 but then the substantial increases in IO contracts came out which IMO should have at least maintained the SP.

Hopefully the Q2 results will pull things back up tomorrow, as I'm holding.

Assuming the BHP takeover goes ahead and BHP is ~$40, then that should value RIO @ $136 (3.4:1).

Is there something I'm totally missing?:bonk:

The biggest problem seems to be getting BHP to ~ $40 and holding it there!
We're dealing with a big bad bear market out there!