RIO - Rio Tinto

[SM Junkie]

Finally got into RIO today, just under $87 which I think is a good price. It has been on my watchlist since it was $115, but it took off before I could get on board, so at this price, I thought it was a great pick up for the long term. I'm hoping that:

1. Markets may look a little more positive next week if the bailout goes ahead.
2. We may see rate cuts here, which might uplift the mood even it the real costs are not passed down to the consumer.
3. And with BHP another step closer in it's takeover bid, favour may return to the stock.

And if none of this has any effect, well I'll just use it as an opportunity to buy more along the way.

 

[Frank D]

Rio:- I'm bearish on resource stocks in the 4th Quarter.

I know where I'm Buying Rio.....

Resistance around 110.00.

downside target as shown, with probably 'Quarterly' bottoms sometime in November in the 4th Quarter.

Just my thoughts...

 

[baja]

this cant be too good for the SP with everything else going on, Chinas musings included.

Rios Pilbara train drivers to strike with further possible action.

http://business.theage.com.au/business/rios-pilbara-train-drivers-to-strike-20081007-4vhw.html

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

hmmm here's something interesting

At $67 and BHP's 3.4 for 1 script offer, the implied cost/value price of BHP shares is $19

Arbitrage opp here or am I missing something?

Of course this assumes the merger goes ahead etc etc

Thoughts?

 

[Warren Buffet II]

hmmm here's something interesting

At $67 and BHP's 3.4 for 1 script offer, the implied cost/value price of BHP shares is $19

Arbitrage opp here or am I missing something?

Of course this assumes the merger goes ahead etc etc

Thoughts?

I am sure that BHP is reconsidering the merger as the prices of commodities are dropping like a rock, China is slowing, US is in recession as EU, costs in AU keep going up and up with inflation getting close to 5% or more next year and debt being harder and harder to rise.

So what do you want, who wants that junk?

WBII

 

[powerovdreams]

Hey all,

I'm new to investing in the stock market and was wondering if anyone can predict how low rio tintos' shares will fall? Is it a good time to buy in now, or should I wait a bit longer. Please give me your opinions.

 

[Joe Blow]

Hey all,

I'm new to investing in the stock market and was wondering if anyone can predict how low rio tintos' shares will fall? Is it a good time to buy in now, or should I wait a bit longer. Please give me your opinions.

Hi powerovdreams,

Welcome to ASF!

Anyone's prediction about how low RIO's price will fall will be just a guess and you should not make important investment decisions on the basis of predictions by members of an internet forum.

Also, it is not legal for those on a forum such as ASF to offer you specific financial advice such as when to buy or sell particular stocks.

I would recommend you do as much of your own research as possible and if you are still in doubt about when (or if) to purchase RIO that you consult a licensed financial adviser about your situation.

All the best!

 

[sammy84]

Hey all,

I'm new to investing in the stock market and was wondering if anyone can predict how low rio tintos' shares will fall? Is it a good time to buy in now, or should I wait a bit longer. Please give me your opinions.

Hey powerovdreams.

Now's probably not a good time to be guessing lows on any particular share as there is no common sense in the market. If your looking at RIO with a particularly long time frame then the price is looking cheap at the moment. Might be good to look at the topic relating to whether the china boom is over in order to help work out if you want to buy in.

 

[noirua]

Rio Tinto are in a bid situation, that through the present share price, the market thinks will be dropped. Despite the different setup in the UK Rio Tinto the affects eventuate a ripple threw effect through the sterling equivalent. The reason I've added a few.

 

[Miner]

Woh !

The last person visited the RIO thread was 10th November. Why this share forum is not popular ? FMG and others are over inundated with posting

Any way I noticed something very interesting after the market closed today at about 4.33 PM Sydney time.

The screen shots are given here

Share Quote as at 4:33 PM Sydney Time, Thursday, 20 November 2008 Commsec Site RIO TINTO LIMITED FPO
CommSec Margin Lending LVR: 70%


Code Bid Offer Last Change* % Change* Open High Low Volume Trades Value News
RIO 57.240 57.300 57.250 -8.650 -13.13 61.200 61.380 56.030 5,085,742 16,382 302,570,596


Buy | Sell | Add to Watchlist | Research | Chart | Course of Sales


Trading Status: Pre Open

Delayed share price (COPIED FROM ASX SITE AT WST 2.35 PM (MARKET CLOSED IN SYDNEY: ON 20 Nov. 08) Prices are delayed by at least 20 minutes. Retrieving any price indicates your acceptance of the Conditions.
Code
Last % Chg Bid Offer Open High Low Vol
57.500 -12.75% 70.150 43.900 61.200 61.380 56.030 4,748,817

Differences are in percentage change, bid and offer values, volume of shares sold.

Even if considering ASX reports 20 minutes after actual sale the end price remained same and the report is 15 minutes after market was closed.

How come the offer price is so low accepted regardless the figures are not matching what quoted in ASX and Commsec site.

As per trading rules you can not put a target sell or buy too high or low figures
Any one can throw some light

 

[skc]

How come the offer price is so low accepted regardless the figures are not matching what quoted in ASX and Commsec site.

As per trading rules you can not put a target sell or buy too high or low figures
Any one can throw some light

It's all to do with ASX opening and closing auctions.


Mate, you are 1,000,001st person to ask this
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=11619

 

[Miner]

It's all to do with ASX opening and closing auctions.


Mate, you are 1,000,001st person to ask this
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=11619

Thanks SKC for making me a millionaire for something even if in real money terms it is happening opposite

The link was useful and educative.

Regards

 

[Miner]

Here's how we saw it a week ago. The chart patterns were quite straightforward.

BOTTOM LINE
12/11:
EW Trend: Corrective
Price Trend: Up
Trend Strength: Weak
Broker Consensus: Strong BUY

TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
12/11:
VIDEO ANALYSIS (3 mins 3 secs)
LAYMANS: Our October 20 review highlighted the prospect of a near term bounce to be followed by the resumption of the larger trend. That bounce occurred the very next day and now appears to have terminated below the all important $97.00 level. As such we should now look for follow through weakness in expectation of some new lows being made. If this analysis is correct we should not exceed last weeks highs at $86.60 and start tracking lower with $55.00 being the target with an outside chance of making slightly lower prints, maybe nearer $50.00. It's worth noting that Broker Consensus opinion has moved from Intermediate BUY to it's strongest rating at Strong BUY. As usual we'll let the charts to the talking for us.
TECHNICAL: The chart patterns are quite clear to me so we need to run with them until proven otherwise. At this juncture the highest interpretation is that we've made a minor degree wave-(iv) high which sits within an intermediate degree wave-3 that in turn sits within a larger degree wave-(C). I'll highlight these during tonight's video for clarity. This wave-(iv) off the October 17 lows unfolded in a distinctive 3-wave movement so now we just need follow through to get wave-(v) confirmed so keep a watch on that smaller up sloping channel. The completion of this wave-(v) will also signal the end of the wave-3 that should be followed by a decent bounce into wave-4. I don't wish to get too far ahead of ourselves in this environment so one pattern at a time. Weakness wanted now to $55.00.

TRADING STRATEGY
12/11:
I have tentatively labeled last weeks low at $70.00 a smaller degree wave-i. We may get a bounce in the next day or so to complete the wave-ii and then see prices start sliding lower toward the target. I have traced out a small diagonal channel on tonight's chart. When the lower boundary breaks we're confirmed into the wave-iii but this doesn't offer such a great risk reward. If however we see this wave-ii take a little more upside bounce then one could fade that move with stops above $87.00 enabling a tighter risk/reward opportunity.


This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.

Good stuff

Let us see if RIO goes down further to give some buying opportunity

It also depends on DOW tonight

 

[Family_Guy]

Let us see if RIO goes down further to give some buying opportunity

Gee.......and i thought $58 bucks was a bargin and went swimming with it today. I'm in, hope it bounces big time.

 

[bluey]

It's hit $54 today - when is this carnage going to end..

And my friend was telling me RIO is a bargain at $95 a couple of weeks back..

Given all the reports of how difficult it is conjure up funds/credit - surely there must be a point where the institutions come into play and start buying...

 

[radar23]

BHP Drops Rio take over bid.. Rio's price on the FTSE has drop 40% from opening. Will this cause the same free fall effect on the ASX RIO listed price.

Who knows...

 

[eric35]

I imagine RIO will fall, while BHP will get a boost.

Maybe too late to go short in the morning (on RIO)

My opinion only

 

[Prospector]

RIO is currently down 36% in Britain. This would seem to be your buying opportunity. BHP up 6%. Market seems to like BHP's decision, well, BHP's market does.

 

[Nick Radge]

We were bearish, but that's a big move. Clearly the market was hoping BHP would help out with the debt. Here is our review from last night:



BOTTOM LINE
24/11:
EW Trend: Corrective
Price Trend: Down
Trend Strength: Strong
Broker Consensus: Strong BUY

TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
24/11:
VIDEO ANALYSIS (2 mins 42 secs)
LAYMANS: The first target of $55.00 was met on Friday but there remains no evidence that a push higher is upon us just yet. Therefore we must continue to play the odds suggesting the larger trend will prevail and that $50.00, our second target, will come into play. We will follow this smaller degree decline off the early November highs as the primary indicator of a reversal but in the interim we could slide below $50.00 if this current pattern traces out to its fullest. Only a move back above $70 would add some quiet bullish confidence but even so it will not be enough to turn the larger trend. A clear inhibitor to price action is the significant amount of debt RIO is carrying and its current inability to offload non-core assets. We don't need read too much into this nor predict when the market will be satisfied - its all written into the price action and ongoing patterns. When they change, then we will know.
TECHNICAL: The smaller degree wave-ii we discussed in the last review (see archived below) did transpire and so it is we're now impulsing lower in the wave-iii. The $70.00 is significant because it represents the lows of wave-i and therefore the point of invalidation, at least on this smaller degree pattern. This current 5-wave patterns stands within an intermediate degree wave-(v) which in turn stands within larger degree wave-3. After the completion of the two smaller patterns we will see a reasonable bounce, certainly one very tradable, but the larger degree pattern stays in play until $110.00 is surpassed. That's a big call in this environment which is why a lot of this RIO story is yet to unfold but a number of trading opportunities will be seen in the interim. $70.00 is the key level and we must stay bearish whilst prices stay below.

TRADING STRATEGY
24/11:
We're more than likely very close to seeing a moderate low point in general terms, although a slide into the $40.00 handle is still probable. I'm hesitant to look for selling opportunities here but also suggest we're not ready to try and pick a low point. There is minor bullish divergence on offer, but firstly not enough to get involved and secondly because we're exposed to BHP already.



This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.

 

[DionM]

Well a drop in RIO was expected when the takeover got canned - when BHP announced the plan, BHP went down, RIO went up.

Must admit - 40% is pretty extreme but in a jittery market that's what happens I guess.

What was RIOs price before BHP's offer? Around $100?

So using some simple maths:
- BHP recently hit 2/5 of it's peak ($20/$50)
- RIO therefore is due to hit 2/5 of it's peak prior to the offer ... e.g. $40 (2/5 of $100).

I'm not touching it with a big stick though ... I already have BHP and OZL (from ZFX days) and have suffered enough with those two. I don't need a hat-trick.