RIO - Rio Tinto

[subaru69]

I was reading somewhere today (relatively reliable on net) that big brokers are advising dumping commodity stocks and then I read this:

'Just as investors have grown very negative about banks, there’s a looming possibility they are thinking the same way about resource stocks, despite continuing evidence to the contrary. A long view is needed, according to some analysts, to find value.' (Australasian Investment Review issue 208)

I know things aren't as simple as: RIO is digging up more stuff and selling it for more than before therefore the price should at least stay stable or heaven forbid go up. Other factors such as priced in value, the big bad bear and predictions on future exports ie China slowing also play a part.

But the fact remains : more product, higher prices.

If BHP takeover doesn't occur then that should theoretically mean the RIO is valued at more than the takeover price NOT less. Or BHP got bored and didn't want RIO anymore :.

Aussie commodities (ie not oil) haven't had the speculative run that oil has had and the grow seems realistic to date, obviously we can't get doubling coal prices every year though.

The mentality of the market at the moment is making me mental or once again are I just missing something? I've noticed on a few threads (especially re POG) that some believe the world is doomed (yes I know I've massively oversimplified the general sentiment) in the short to medium term.

Finding a bottom and then some modest recovery, though not back to the levels of a year ago, would be nice .

 

[oldblue]

I don't think that we should assume that if the BHP t/o doesn't occur then RIO is " worth" more, not less.
There are a range of reasons why the t/o may not come to pass, from political ( out of a number of affected countries) to sheer cussedness or ego on the part of RIO management. I would think that it would be more likely that RIO SP would fall somewhat ( from P/E of around 18 ) if BHP is chased away.

 

[vishalt]

BHP can probably afford to go 3.8 to 4 for 1 on Rio Tinto.

Rio is a great asset, I bought in again on Friday. Coal, uranium, aluminum, copper, lots of iron ore, great company.

 

[Trader Paul]

Hi folks,

RIO ... technically, the price action on 28072008 has confirmed 25072008,
as a morning star pattern and working from a geo perspective, we can
confirm 28082008 as another significant date.

Here's our astroanalysis for RIO, over the next few months:

11082008 ... significant and positive ... finance-related???

13-14082008 ... 2 significant cycles and positive news expected here

22082008 ... minor and positive lunar aspect

28-29082008 ... 2 significant and conflicting time cycles, one
positive and one negative = flat trading at a high ???

03-05092008 ... significant and negative news expected here,
as 2 negative RIO cycles, come out to play

29092008 ... 2 negative and one positive cycle, should focus
a negative spotlight on RIO, at New Moon

06102008 ... minor and positive lunar aspect

13-14102008 ... minor and positive cycle

24102008 ... minor time cycle

29-30102008 ... minor and positive light on RIO

07-10112008 ... minor and positive news expected

17-18112008 ... significant and positive cycle - finance-related ???

25-28112008 ... 3 time cycles to bring minor news

15-16122008 ... 2 aspects to bring significant and positive news

29122008 ... positive spotlight on RIO

02-05012009 ... expecting a short and aggressive rally

07012009 ... minor news

09-12012009 ... minor and positive ... finances ... ???

15012009 ... minor news

26012009 ... minor cycle

-----

After a strong start to February 2009, particularly around 02022009,
the next round of negative cycles should begin, about 11022009 ...

More later

have a great day

paul



=====

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Hi folks,

RIO ... technically, the price action on 28072008 has confirmed 25072008,
as a morning star pattern and working from a geo perspective, we can
confirm 28082008 as another significant date.

Here's our astroanalysis for RIO, over the next few months:

11082008 ... significant and positive ... finance-related???

13-14082008 ... 2 significant cycles and positive news expected here

22082008 ... minor and positive lunar aspect

28-29082008 ... 2 significant and conflicting time cycles, one
positive and one negative = flat trading at a high ???

03-05092008 ... significant and negative news expected here,
as 2 negative RIO cycles, come out to play

29092008 ... 2 negative and one positive cycle, should focus
a negative spotlight on RIO, at New Moon

06102008 ... minor and positive lunar aspect

13-14102008 ... minor and positive cycle

24102008 ... minor time cycle

29-30102008 ... minor and positive light on RIO

Paul is predicting a negative Sept and a positive October for RIO, I believe.

I don't agree.

Any ideas?

Enclosed a chart.

There seems to be a bounce at $110 , with previous support and resistance.

gg

 

[Boggo]

Just a quick worth after a couple of reds :

There seems to be a lot of (mainly resource) stocks in potential wave 4 patterns at the moment.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Just a quick worth after a couple of reds :

There seems to be a lot of (mainly resource) stocks in potential wave 4 patterns at the moment.

A very good observation Boggo, I reckon RIO would get heaps of support if it were to dip below $100, barring any major global catastrophe. Any other resource stocks you've noticed in this pattern ?

gg

 

[shadow123]

looks like she is getting whipped today...

any big news out i dont know about?
surely drop in commodity prices couldnt do all that damage

* spot on boggo

 

[Seneca60BC]

does that mean since RIO has breached 110, next resistance is 100 ?

Cheers
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[Garpal Gumnut]

does that mean since RIO has breached 110, next resistance is 100 ?

Cheers
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Yep next support is $100. And then after that $80 then $65.

$87.50 could be another support as it was resistance on the way up.

gg

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I enclose a chart of RIO.

Its interesting there have been so few posts on RIO on the premier Australian Stock Forum recently.

Maybe the members feel it is not worth their time, its such a tiddler, and its under threat of takeover.

Its about $100 now, I predict a $200 price on expansion from the wave 3 before the end of this financial year.

Then I'm just a mere Chartist.

On EW analysis its a goer.

gg

 

[golfmos123]

GG - and I thought you were a RIO basher $200 by next June would be nice indeed. Some positive news on the takeover front would help stoke those fires too.

As indicated earlier in this thread, there must be a quite a number of resource companies in similar chart positions to this one.

At $100, I'm not sure that now is the time to buy - I'd be looking at either further falls and purchasing in low 90's, or waiting to see rises and looking at something just south of 110 with some fairly tight stops.

 

[peter g]

Rio is being hammered today $95.9 looks like it is about to go through a year long support level......All this with no announcemnt....is there any news that i have missed??

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

GG - and I thought you were a RIO basher $200 by next June would be nice indeed. Some positive news on the takeover front would help stoke those fires too.

As indicated earlier in this thread, there must be a quite a number of resource companies in similar chart positions to this one.

At $100, I'm not sure that now is the time to buy - I'd be looking at either further falls and purchasing in low 90's, or waiting to see rises and looking at something just south of 110 with some fairly tight stops.

Couldn't agree more golfmos123. It depends I guess on the reaction to the Wall St. bailout.

Some (Daily Telegraph UK ) are tipping a 33% fall in equities.

gg

gg

 

[agro]

ACCC not opposed to merger

look at live chart

just rocketed from 90 on that news

seems like it will hit 100 now, its not stopping

 

[NightWolf]

Didn’t make it too $100 today... Closed $5 below… I think if we see positive news from the states (if they actually vote on Thursday US time) on Friday we should see a bit of a spring back in most stocks, hopefully enough to bounce RIO over $100…

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

RIO is one stock I can see hitting $200 at some stage in the not too distant future. Its a takeover play, it is rich with good assets and it has good management, and there is even better of both in its predator.

In the present circumstances BHP will have to sweeten the offer to get shareholders to agree, and this may not occur until the present credit crunch is over.

Thus I see RIO continuing its upward course.

Todays recovery of 10% is one of the best in the market.

gg

 

[NightWolf]

Bit of a dive today... I think $200 is a bit optimistic... I think we will see $140-150... By the end of this month...

 

[golfmos123]

NO matter how you slice and dice it, buying RIO under $100 is value if you are looking anywhere beyond a 2-3 month timeframe.

My earlier post was looking at low 90's entry, but I missed the chance to jump in in the mid 80s a couple of days ago. It's a bummer when work takes you away from your computer!! Picked up more today in low 90s and don't really expect it to fall much further. Positive US news tonight will see oil up, commodities probably up and the world will look rosy again.

I think long term, RIO under $100 will look like one of the classic steals.......

 

[eric35]

I bought RIO the other day at $94, intending to hold it. But boy, what a wild ride. That is one of my very few buys where I use intuition rather than charts. maybe I live to regret it, but I don't think so.