Resisting Climate Hysteria

[rederob]

There have been a few ASF members who have accused other ASF members of not following "the Science".

Because there are proven cases of cherry picking when not otherwise using pseudoscience, debunked claims or just poor science. UAH temperature data for example uses a diurnal correction factor based on comparisons between three co-orbiting satellites rather than actual global surface temperatures, so significantly underestimates change.

What they really mean, is that those heretical members are not following hte science and scientists that they approve of,

On the contrary. Valid scientific claims don't change.

So here are some scientists that they can debunk, or accuse of not being peer reviewed , or just plain wrong.

You do know they first need to make a scientific claim, don't you?
What are you offering?

 

[Sean K]

If you understood the concept of an increasing rate of change you would know it had nothing to do with the X and Y axis.

Not true as the data shows it was cooler from 1500 to 1700. Nor is there an iota of scientific evidence that there was any "natural cycling".

This has been well explained, so another falsehood. You seem to have no idea of the role of aerosols in mitigating temperature increases.

There's actually a strong positive correlation, and here's where you could have gone to learn something:
View attachment 160477

When did central England's temperature record equate to the planets?
If you had a clue about determining global trends in climate you would know that using averages over 20 years (minimum) was necessary so that decadal-level countertrends could be ruled out. Choosing a single 30 year period is cherry picking, made worse by failing to use a global standard.

UAH and RSS use exactly the same data source, but adopt different methodologies (algorithms). Neither reflects the surface temperature (HADCRUT charted below).
In any case all the data series confirm the trend of an increasing rate of change of temperature, with UAH data showing a greater increase than RSS when using the 20-year average.
View attachment 160475

Well done Rob. You almost got through a post without the need to hurl personal abuse. Good work.

 

[basilio]

Well done Rob. You almost got through a post without the need to hurl personal abuse. Good work.

Droll Sean. Such a gentleman. Truly one of ASFs special people.
As well you should be in your special position.

 

[basilio]

Like the Great Barrier Reef? In the best condition since records have been kept.

Really ?

Expert panel calls for urgent rethink on Great Barrier Reef management amid ‘unremitting’ climate crisis​

Group chaired by former chief scientist Ian Chubb writes to Tanya Plibersek, saying ‘business as usual’ on the reef is not an option

• Follow our Australia news live blog for the latest updates
• Get our morning and afternoon news emails, free app or daily news podcast

Graham Readfearn

@readfearn
Thu 3 Aug 2023 15.34 AESTLast modified on Thu 3 Aug 2023 16.19 AEST


Leading national experts on the Great Barrier Reef have called for an urgent reassessment of the way the world’s biggest reef system is managed, saying current approaches are too inflexible in the face of “unremitting global warming.”
An established independent expert panel, chaired by the former chief scientist Ian Chubb, wrote to the environment minister, Tanya Plibersek, saying “business as usual” is no longer an option.

The reef was “in a transition driven by greenhouse gases emitted to levels unprecedented in 800,000 years”, Chubb wrote in a letter published today, warning the effects would worsen in coming decades as greenhouse gas emissions continued.

A report from the Australian Academy of Sciences, also released Thursday, said the climate crisis was likely to damage the reef in ways that could become “irreversible” by the middle of this century.

That report – released in conjunction with the advice of the expert panel – also recommended a comprehensive review of reef management.

Expert panel calls for urgent rethink on Great Barrier Reef management amid ‘unremitting’ climate crisis

Group chaired by former chief scientist Ian Chubb writes to Tanya Plibersek, saying ‘business as usual’ on the reef is not an option

www.theguardian.com

 

[basilio]

Give me a good scientific reason why the reefs across the equator where the water is 30 degrees are thriving compared to the lower barrier reefs ranging from 26-28 degrees.

Because they arn't. In fact coral reefs are moving to escape the extreme temperatures caused by global heating.
And yes some, a few, coral species are adapting to warmer temperatures.

Coral reefs shifting away from equator​

New research reveals a dramatic rebalancing of young corals from tropical to subtropical waters during the last 40 years

Date: July 9, 2019 Source: Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences Summary: Coral reefs are retreating from equatorial waters and establishing new reefs in more temperate regions, according to new research. The researchers found that the number of young corals on tropical reefs has declined by 85 percent -- and doubled on subtropical reefs -- during the last four decades. Share:

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/07/190709160136.htm

 

[Sean K]

Really ?

Expert panel calls for urgent rethink on Great Barrier Reef management amid ‘unremitting’ climate crisis​

Group chaired by former chief scientist Ian Chubb writes to Tanya Plibersek, saying ‘business as usual’ on the reef is not an option

• Follow our Australia news live blog for the latest updates
• Get our morning and afternoon news emails, free app or daily news podcast

Graham Readfearn

@readfearn
Thu 3 Aug 2023 15.34 AESTLast modified on Thu 3 Aug 2023 16.19 AEST


Leading national experts on the Great Barrier Reef have called for an urgent reassessment of the way the world’s biggest reef system is managed, saying current approaches are too inflexible in the face of “unremitting global warming.”
An established independent expert panel, chaired by the former chief scientist Ian Chubb, wrote to the environment minister, Tanya Plibersek, saying “business as usual” is no longer an option.

The reef was “in a transition driven by greenhouse gases emitted to levels unprecedented in 800,000 years”, Chubb wrote in a letter published today, warning the effects would worsen in coming decades as greenhouse gas emissions continued.

A report from the Australian Academy of Sciences, also released Thursday, said the climate crisis was likely to damage the reef in ways that could become “irreversible” by the middle of this century.

That report – released in conjunction with the advice of the expert panel – also recommended a comprehensive review of reef management.

Expert panel calls for urgent rethink on Great Barrier Reef management amid ‘unremitting’ climate crisis

Group chaired by former chief scientist Ian Chubb writes to Tanya Plibersek, saying ‘business as usual’ on the reef is not an option

www.theguardian.com

I got most of the way through your link to the The Guardian before I choked on this.

There was a “broadly under-utilised opportunity” to exchange ideas and knowledge with Indigenous communities, “whose understanding of the reef extends back prior to its contemporary form emerging after the last ice age”

Really?

Did Bruce Pascoe write that?

 

[Sean K]

Because they arn't. In fact coral reefs are moving to escape the extreme temperatures caused by global heating.
And yes some, a few, coral species are adapting to warmer temperatures.

Coral reefs shifting away from equator​

New research reveals a dramatic rebalancing of young corals from tropical to subtropical waters during the last 40 years

Date: July 9, 2019 Source: Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences Summary: Coral reefs are retreating from equatorial waters and establishing new reefs in more temperate regions, according to new research. The researchers found that the number of young corals on tropical reefs has declined by 85 percent -- and doubled on subtropical reefs -- during the last four decades. Share:

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/07/190709160136.htm

I've been diving around the World for 30 years. I guess that's not science, but from first hand accounts the coral around the equator is incredible compared to the southern GBR. There's one particular section of reefs on the GBR I've dived just about every year called the Ribbon Reefs, Osprey Reef and one site called Cod Hole near Lizard island. They are in the best condition they have been in 30 years. Probably contributed to by a lack of Cyclones recently which regularly tip over plate coral, but coral bleaching, nah. It's amazing. Having said that, I dived in Kimbe Bay in PNG last October and was at Wakatobi in Indonesia in June and they have far superior reefs and fish life. As I said, the water is about 2 degrees warmer up there. I'll show you my dive computer records. Not sure what agenda the scientists you have quoted on The Guardian have....

 

[IFocus]

I've been diving around the World for 30 years. I guess that's not science, but from first hand accounts the coral around the equator is incredible compared to the southern GBR. There's one particular section of reefs on the GBR I've dived just about every year called the Ribbon Reefs, Osprey Reef and one site called Cod Hole near Lizard island. They are in the best condition they have been in 30 years. Probably contributed to by a lack of Cyclones recently which regularly tip over plate coral, but coral bleaching, nah. It's amazing. Having said that, I dived in Kimbe Bay in PNG last October and was at Wakatobi in Indonesia in June and they have far superior reefs and fish life. As I said, the water is about 2 degrees warmer up there. I'll show you my dive computer records. Not sure what agenda the scientists you have quoted on The Guardian have....

You are right its not science.

Variations say again variations, temperature rise is not consistent across all oceans, what is consistent is the heat sink effect of oceans as they store heat geezas a 5 min google and you would see currents, different layers, and a zillion other factors at play displacing heat at different points with different results.

Ice melt is the canary in the mine.

If all the oceans temp rise 2 degrees plus god help us weather you know the thing oceans play a big part in (think surf forecasts) will never be the same.

Edit: that's science

 

[Sean K]

You are right its not science.

Variations say again variations, temperature rise is not consistent across all oceans, what is consistent is the heat sink effect of oceans as they store heat geezas a 5 min google and you would see currents, different layers, and a zillion other factors at play displacing heat at different points with different results.

Ice melt is the canary in the mine.

If all the oceans temp rise 2 degrees plus god help us weather you know the thing oceans play a big part in (think surf forecasts) will never be the same.

Edit: that's science

I've discussed the temp differension and coral/reef/fish life with every dive operator and marine biologist/scientist I've dived with over the past 5 years or so to get their opinion and the answer is the same. 'I don't understand'. The general opinion seems to be - adaption, or in regards to the inner GBR, water/waste run off has been managed better which might have influenced the reefs, but it does not explain the reef thriving after Barack Obama told us it was dead. I've got two dive trips planned in the next 9 months. I'm going back to the GBR later this year (same spots mentioned above) and back to Wakatobi in April 24. I do hope the stag coral has fewer white tips on it, if at all.

 

[basilio]

Great Sean. You have an extensive personal experience with diving in a number of places and you believe that nothing serious is really happening with the warming of oceans and its effect on coral reefs. You believe/hope that adaptation is taking place that will keep all the balls in the air and the coral reefs alive.

Be that as it may, that is not the observation of marine biologists around the world. It also doesn't square with the basic biology of coral reefs and the environment they can survive in. It's not clear cut. There are some adaptations. There are programs identifying some heat resistant coral that could replace ones that can't survive increasing temperatures.

But how far can this go Sean ? Global heating is currently at .8C above the 1960-1990 average. As a consequence ocean heat levels are relentlessly rising. On all current climate models current and future GG levels will increase global temperatures by another 2-5C unless there is a massive reduction and drawdown in CO2 levels. Do you believe the coral, the oceans will adapt to these new temperatures ?

Average temperature anomaly

Global average land-sea temperature anomaly relative to the 1961-1990 average temperature baseline.

ourworldindata.org

https://ourworldindata.org/explorer...ace+temperature+anomaly&Long-run+series=false

Climate Change Impacts Data Explorer

Explore the impacts of global climate change.

ourworldindata.org

 

[basilio]

Great Sean. You have an extensive personal experience with diving in a number of places and you believe that nothing serious is really happening with the warming of oceans and its effect on coral reefs. You believe/hope that adaptation is taking place that will keep all the balls in the air and the coral reefs alive.

Be that as it may, that is not the observation of marine biologists around the world. It also doesn't square with the basic biology of coral reefs and the environment they can survive in. It's not clear cut. There are some adaptations. There are programs identifying some heat resistant coral that could replace ones that can't survive increasing temperatures.

But how far can this go Sean ? Global heating is currently at .8C above the 1960-1990 average. As a consequence ocean heat levels are relentlessly rising. On all current climate models current and future GG levels will increase global temperatures by another 2-5C unless there is a massive reduction and drawdown in CO2 levels. Do you believe the coral, the oceans will adapt to these new temperatures ?

Average temperature anomaly

Global average land-sea temperature anomaly relative to the 1961-1990 average temperature baseline.

ourworldindata.org

https://ourworldindata.org/explorer...ace+temperature+anomaly&Long-run+series=false

Climate Change Impacts Data Explorer

Explore the impacts of global climate change.

ourworldindata.org

 

[Sean K]

Great Sean. You have an extensive personal experience with diving in a number of places and you believe that nothing serious is really happening with the warming of oceans and its effect on coral reefs. You believe/hope that adaptation is taking place that will keep all the balls in the air and the coral reefs alive.

Be that as it may, that is not the observation of marine biologists around the world. It also doesn't square with the basic biology of coral reefs and the environment they can survive in. It's not clear cut. There are some adaptations. There are programs identifying some heat resistant coral that could replace ones that can't survive increasing temperatures.

But how far can this go Sean ? Global heating is currently at .8C above the 1960-1990 average. As a consequence ocean heat levels are relentlessly rising. On all current climate models current and future GG levels will increase global temperatures by another 2-5C unless there is a massive reduction and drawdown in CO2 levels. Do you believe the coral, the oceans will adapt to these new temperatures ?

Average temperature anomaly

Global average land-sea temperature anomaly relative to the 1961-1990 average temperature baseline.

ourworldindata.org

https://ourworldindata.org/explorer...ace+temperature+anomaly&Long-run+series=false

Climate Change Impacts Data Explorer

Explore the impacts of global climate change.

ourworldindata.org

I'm obviously precious about the coral reefs so I take this very seriously. You can click on my blog to see my diving background and love of the ocean. If I hadn't personally witnessed the recovery of the reefs over the past 5 years while the oceans supposedly started to boil, I'd be really concerned about the reef death narrative. But, I'm not seeing it and I do not trust the activists promoting the death of the reef when it's simply not happening. Yep, not science, just my real time POV. Maybe I've been lucky to see healthy coral everywhere I go.

 

[wayneL]

I'm obviously precious about the coral reefs so I take this very seriously. You can click on my blog to see my diving background and love of the ocean. If I hadn't personally witnessed the recovery of the reefs over the past 5 years while the oceans supposedly started to boil, I'd be really concerned about the reef death narrative. But, I'm not seeing it and I do not trust the activists promoting the death of the reef when it's simply not happening. Yep, not science, just my real time POV. Maybe I've been lucky to see healthy coral everywhere I go.

Interesting, in light of the Peter Ridd situation.

Thanks for those observations ?

 

[mullokintyre]

You are right its not science.

Variations say again variations, temperature rise is not consistent across all oceans, what is consistent is the heat sink effect of oceans as they store heat geezas a 5 min google and you would see currents, different layers, and a zillion other factors at play displacing heat at different points with different results.

Ice melt is the canary in the mine.

If all the oceans temp rise 2 degrees plus god help us weather you know the thing oceans play a big part in (think surf forecasts) will never be the same.

Edit: that's science

Nah thats bull****.
The amount of energy required to raise the temperature of all the oceans by 2 degrees
would require every bit of energy the sun produces that strikes earth for two years.
Given the amount of energy thats absorbed by plants, the land, solar panels, reflected back into space, or just escapes as radiation from weather convection humans will all be dead before it happens.
Thats maths.
Mick

 

[IFocus]

Nah thats bull****.
The amount of energy required to raise the temperature of all the oceans by 2 degrees
would require every bit of energy the sun produces that strikes earth for two years.
Given the amount of energy thats absorbed by plants, the land, solar panels, reflected back into space, or just escapes as radiation from weather convection humans will all be dead before it happens.
Thats maths.
Mick
View attachment 160510

As a total mass correct but as a surface area no it can go much higher than 2 degrees c hence ice melt extreme weather

 

[IFocus]

Meanwhile more hysteria no doubt some one massaged the data.

Climate scientists have been left "flabbergasted" as temperatures in parts of South America near 40 degrees Celsius in the middle of what is supposed to be its winter.

Mid-winter temperatures in South America rival those of the baking northern hemisphere summer

Winter temperatures have neared 40 degrees Celsius in parts of South America, which is up to 20C higher than normal for this time of year and the equivalent of Sydney hitting 35C in the first week of August.

www.abc.net.au

 

[wayneL]

Gaslighting, almost literally

 

[mullokintyre]

Meanwhile more hysteria no doubt some one massaged the data.

Climate scientists have been left "flabbergasted" as temperatures in parts of South America near 40 degrees Celsius in the middle of what is supposed to be its winter.

Mid-winter temperatures in South America rival those of the baking northern hemisphere summer

Winter temperatures have neared 40 degrees Celsius in parts of South America, which is up to 20C higher than normal for this time of year and the equivalent of Sydney hitting 35C in the first week of August.

www.abc.net.au

The article that says temps hit 37 degrees has been "upgraded" to "near 40degrees" in the headline analysis.
Would it be ok for me to say it was only near 34 degrees?
Mick

 

[Knobby22]

Meanwhile more hysteria no doubt some one massaged the data.

Climate scientists have been left "flabbergasted" as temperatures in parts of South America near 40 degrees Celsius in the middle of what is supposed to be its winter.

Mid-winter temperatures in South America rival those of the baking northern hemisphere summer

Winter temperatures have neared 40 degrees Celsius in parts of South America, which is up to 20C higher than normal for this time of year and the equivalent of Sydney hitting 35C in the first week of August.

www.abc.net.au

Breaking the record by 5 degrees. Wtf

 

[basilio]

The article that says temps hit 37 degrees has been "upgraded" to "near 40degrees" in the headline analysis.
Would it be ok for me to say it was only near 34 degrees?
Mick

Being really picky Mick. This was the quote that allowed reporters to say "nearly 40 degrees
This is off the page temperature extremes. Remember it is still winter.
And no it wouldn't be cool or even close ,to say it was near 34C.

"South America is living one of the most extreme events the world has ever seen, unbelievable temperatures up to 38.9C in the Chilean Andine areas in mid-winter," Mr Herrera wrote on social media.