Resisting Climate Hysteria

[Smurf1976]

What we need, and what we will get over the next decade is energy that is predominantly from renewable sources and blue hydrogen and nuclear fission.

Much of the debate misses that only about one third of Australian greenhouse gas emissions are a result of electricity generation whilst some of the rest, for example agriculture, aviation and cement, are technically a problem to eliminate. So for any major cut to total emissions, the other doable things, that is road and rail transport and stationary energy use (gas appliances etc) most certainly need to be addressed in a timely manner.

Addressing road transport, rail transport, water heating, space heating and so on to majority extent involves powering it with electricity as the first step and that means consumers buying electric appliances and vehicles, not gas or petrol.

There's no technical fix that gets around the need for consumers to change what they buy.

 

[Knobby22]

Much of the debate misses that only about one third of Australian greenhouse gas emissions are a result of electricity generation whilst some of the rest, for example agriculture, aviation and cement, are technically a problem to eliminate. So for any major cut to total emissions, the other doable things, that is road and rail transport and stationary energy use (gas appliances etc) most certainly need to be addressed in a timely manner.

Addressing road transport, rail transport, water heating, space heating and so on to majority extent involves powering it with electricity as the first step and that means consumers buying electric appliances and vehicles, not gas or petrol.

There's no technical fix that gets around the need for consumers to change what they buy.

Rail could be part of the solution eventually.

 

[SirRumpole]

Much of the debate misses that only about one third of Australian greenhouse gas emissions are a result of electricity generation whilst some of the rest, for example agriculture, aviation and cement, are technically a problem to eliminate. So for any major cut to total emissions, the other doable things, that is road and rail transport and stationary energy use (gas appliances etc) most certainly need to be addressed in a timely manner.

Addressing road transport, rail transport, water heating, space heating and so on to majority extent involves powering it with electricity as the first step and that means consumers buying electric appliances and vehicles, not gas or petrol.

There's no technical fix that gets around the need for consumers to change what they buy.

Globally, air transport will also have to be addressed.

I can't see a simple fix to the jet engine consuming a lot of kerosene in the short term.

 

[Sean K]

Globally, air transport will also have to be addressed.

I can't see a simple fix to the jet engine consuming a lot of kerosene in the short term.

Bit of a discussion here.

https://skybrary.aero/sites/default/files/bookshelf/2479.pdf

 

[Sean K]

Shellenberger's book Apocalypse Never is a good read.

 

[Sean K]

I wonder how the GBR coral cover is at its highest in 36 years if catastrophic warming of the oceans is supposed to kill all the coral?

Perhaps there's something wrong with the CAGW hypothesis.

View attachment 156311

https://www.aims.gov.au/monitoring-great-barrier-reef/gbr-condition-summary-2021-22

Why don't Australians know the GBR has record coral cover? Inconvenient truth perhaps.

Great Barrier Reef in record coral cover but 97% of Australians don’t know it « JoNova

joannenova.com.au

 

[Sean K]

Going to be interesting to see if RE or something else fully replaces Liddell, or if there's going to be a problem.

 

[SirRumpole]

Going to be interesting to see if RE or something else fully replaces Liddell, or if there's going to be a problem.

View attachment 156435

I'd be interested to know if there is any contractual obligation on AGL to replace the generation it took out, or if it's just a "we may do it if we feel like it" arrangement.

Whatever happened to the National Energy Guarantee I wonder ?

 

[Sean K]

I'd be interested to know if there is any contractual obligation on AGL to replace the generation it took out, or if it's just a "we may do it if we feel like it" arrangement.

Whatever happened to the National Energy Guarantee I wonder ?

The only thing I can see they're doing on the site is a plan for a big battery, which has a far far smaller output. Storage or 'firming' capacity needs to come from somewhere else when the bird choppers stop spinning.

 

[sptrawler]

I'd be interested to know if there is any contractual obligation on AGL to replace the generation it took out, or if it's just a "we may do it if we feel like it" arrangement.

Whatever happened to the National Energy Guarantee I wonder ?

The noose is tightening.

AGL will close Victoria’s coal-fired power station Loy Yang A a decade early

Energy company accelerates its exit from coal, although timeline for closure of Bayswater in the NSW Hunter Valley remains unchanged

www.theguardian.com

AGL Energy will shut down Australia’s biggest single carbon polluting power plant a decade earlier than planned, changing the closure date of its coal-fired Loy Yang A power station in Victoria from 2045 to 2035.

Crunch time looms for Origin on Eraring closure

Delays to Snowy Hydro projects have revived speculation Origin may need to defer the shutdown of the country’s biggest power station.

www.afr.com

Origin last February brought forward its timetable for shutting the 2880-megawatt plant on the Central Coast by seven years to August 2025, earning plaudits for accelerating the decarbonisation of its portfolio and helping achieve Australia’s ambitious 2030 targets for emissions reduction.

Alinta concedes coal plant may shut 15 years early

The concession from the CEO supports Energy Security Board chairman Kerry Schott’s expectation that coal power will be gone from Australia by the mid-2030s.

www.afr.com

Alinta Energy chief executive Jeff Dimery has conceded that the group’s coal-fired power station in Victoria may close as many as 15 years early in comments that support Energy Security Board chairman Kerry Schott’s expectation that coal power will be gone from Australia by the mid-2030s.

Mr Dimery said he would not be surprised if the Loy Yang B generator in the Latrobe Valley, which has an official shutdown date of 2047, closes not long after 2030 as the rise of renewables ramps up financial and operational pressures on baseload coal.

 

[basilio]

Why don't Australians know the GBR has record coral cover? Inconvenient truth perhaps.

Great Barrier Reef in record coral cover but 97% of Australians don’t know it « JoNova

joannenova.com.au

View attachment 156414

Thanks for the link. As usual its always worth going to the original document for the report on what is happening to the Great Barrier Reef.

Key Results​

• This report summarises the condition of coral reefs of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) from the Long-Term Monitoring Program (LTMP) surveys of 87 reefs conducted between August 2021 and May 2022 (reported as ‘2022’).
  
• Over the past 36 years of monitoring by the Australian Institute of Marine Science (AIMS), coral reefs in the GBR have shown an ability to begin recovery after disturbances.
  
• In 2022, widespread recovery has led to the highest coral cover recorded by the LTMP in the Northern and Central GBR, largely due to increases in the fast-growing Acropora corals, which are the dominant group of corals on the GBR and have been largely responsible previous changes in hard coral cover.
  
• Above-average water temperatures led to a mass coral bleaching event over the austral summer of 2021/22, the fourth event since 2016 and the first recorded during a La Niña year. The peak of this bleaching event was in March, and accumulated heat stress measured as Degree Heating Weeks (DHW)1 for most of the GBR reached levels expected to result in widespread bleaching but not extensive mortality.
  
• Survey reefs experienced low levels of other acute stress over the past 12 months, with no severe cyclones impacting the Marine Park. The number of crown-of-thorns starfish outbreaks on survey reefs has generally decreased; however, there remain ongoing outbreaks on some reefs in the Southern GBR.
  
• The combination of few acute stresses and lower accumulated heat stress in 2020 and 2022 compared to 2016 and 2017 has resulted in low coral mortality and has allowed coral cover to continue to increase in the Northern and Central GBR.
  
• Nearly half of the surveyed reefs (39 out of 87) had hard coral cover levels between 10% and 30%, while almost a third of the surveyed reefs (28 out of 87) had hard coral cover levels between 30% and 50%.
  
• On the Central and Northern GBR, region-wide hard coral cover reached 33% and 36%, respectively; the highest level recorded in the past 36 years of monitoring.
  
• Region-wide hard coral cover on reefs in the Southern GBR was 34% and had decreased from 38% in 2021, largely due to ongoing crown-of-thorns starfish outbreaks.
  
• In periods free from intense acute disturbances, most GBR coral reefs demonstrate resilience through the ability to begin recovery. However, the reefs of the GBR continue to be exposed to cumulative stressors. The prognosis for the future disturbance regime suggests increasing and longer-lasting marine heatwaves, as well as the ongoing risk of outbreaks of crown-of-thorns starfish and tropical cyclones. Therefore, while the observed recovery offers good news for the overall state of the GBR, there is increasing concern for its ability to maintain this state.

https://www.aims.gov.au/monitoring-great-barrier-reef/gbr-condition-summary-2021-22

 

[basilio]

Global warming is happening and continuing. It is bleaching and ultimately destroying coral reefs and the eco system that lives in the coral.

Can we do anything about it ? This may be part of a solution.
Worth noting that this work is supported by the Minderoo Foudnation.

Ningaloo Reef coral crossbred for first time to improve resilience against warming waters​

ABC Pilbara
/ By Rosemary Murphy
Posted Thu 27 Apr 2023 at 6:50amThursday 27 Apr 2023 at 6:50am

Scientists are crossbreeding corals to help them survive in higher temperatures.(Supplied: Mindaroo Foundation)
Help keep family & friends informed by sharing this article

Link copied
Researchers have crossbred coral from Western Australia's Ningaloo Reef for the first time as part of efforts to improve resilience against bleaching events caused rising water temperatures.

Key points:​

• The aim of the research is to produce tough coral offspring that can survive warming conditions
• The coral larvae are produced by breeding corals from cooler and warmer parts of the reef, with the latter potentially more hardy
• Bleaching events caused by rising water temperatures are expected to increase to once a year by 204

 

[Sean K]

The noose is tightening.

AGL will close Victoria’s coal-fired power station Loy Yang A a decade early

Energy company accelerates its exit from coal, although timeline for closure of Bayswater in the NSW Hunter Valley remains unchanged

www.theguardian.com

AGL Energy will shut down Australia’s biggest single carbon polluting power plant a decade earlier than planned, changing the closure date of its coal-fired Loy Yang A power station in Victoria from 2045 to 2035.

Crunch time looms for Origin on Eraring closure

Delays to Snowy Hydro projects have revived speculation Origin may need to defer the shutdown of the country’s biggest power station.

www.afr.com

Origin last February brought forward its timetable for shutting the 2880-megawatt plant on the Central Coast by seven years to August 2025, earning plaudits for accelerating the decarbonisation of its portfolio and helping achieve Australia’s ambitious 2030 targets for emissions reduction.

Alinta concedes coal plant may shut 15 years early

The concession from the CEO supports Energy Security Board chairman Kerry Schott’s expectation that coal power will be gone from Australia by the mid-2030s.

www.afr.com

Alinta Energy chief executive Jeff Dimery has conceded that the group’s coal-fired power station in Victoria may close as many as 15 years early in comments that support Energy Security Board chairman Kerry Schott’s expectation that coal power will be gone from Australia by the mid-2030s.

Mr Dimery said he would not be surprised if the Loy Yang B generator in the Latrobe Valley, which has an official shutdown date of 2047, closes not long after 2030 as the rise of renewables ramps up financial and operational pressures on baseload coal.

I'm going to start a business selling 20 and 30 KVA generators that can be plugged into a standard house.

Or, are solar-battery sets ups better and cost effective by comparison?

 

[wayneL]

I'm going to start a business selling 20 and 30 KVA generators that can be plugged into a standard house.

Or, are solar-battery sets ups better and cost effective by comparison?

I have been passively investigating this conundrum for the last 6 months.

Generators are not a cheap option because of fuel consumption, but do offer complete independence from the grid with on tap power. An equivalent battery setup would be extraordinarily expensive initially, but without the ongoing expense of fuel.

When the equation becomes interesting is further down the track when replacement of the infrastructure is needed.

How long does a generator last?

How long does a battery last?

What are the ongoing costs with regards to servicing and maintenance etcetera?

What is the relative security of energy supply going into the future of each of the options, all things considered?

What are some of the left field developments that could affect each of the options?

 

[wayneL]

One of many Bjorn Lomborg interviews of late, I think this is as good as any.

One could find many points of disagreement but he does present a good common sense basis to have discussions from.

 

[Sean K]

I have been passively investigating this conundrum for the last 6 months.

Generators are not a cheap option because of fuel consumption, but do offer complete independence from the grid with on tap power. An equivalent battery setup would be extraordinarily expensive initially, but without the ongoing expense of fuel.

When the equation becomes interesting is further down the track when replacement of the infrastructure is needed.

How long does a generator last?

How long does a battery last?

What are the ongoing costs with regards to servicing and maintenance etcetera?

What is the relative security of energy supply going into the future of each of the options, all things considered?

What are some of the left field developments that could affect each of the options?

I just want to be able to charge my phone and laptop for when the power goes out so maybe I only need a small generator like a 2.5KVA or a single solar panel with a little battery. Not sure if my owners corp will allow me to put a bird chopper on the roof. Yarra Council are NIMBY types. I'm a little concerned about food and milk in the fridge, but will make sure I have some Army ration packs in the store room just in case. Don't mind a condensed milk coffee.

 

[Sean K]

And @wayneL while I'm putting a generator or bird chopper on my balcony, I need to find room for a couple of cows, a sheep and a chook pen. Maybe I need to go off-grid into the countryside....

 

[wayneL]

And @wayneL while I'm putting a generator or bird chopper on my balcony, I need to find room for a couple of cows, a sheep and a chook pen. Maybe I need to go off-grid into the countryside....

I have one of these in my rig, its the Duck Nuts. It'll keep you going for a bit and no noise. You can get bigger units too.

 

[qldfrog]

if you are just concerned about fridge freezer laptop..a cheap generator at bunnings or ebay will do.
next house is fully off grid [ solar] but has a massive diesel generator with autostart, automated monthly run, etc ..probably an overkill imho but this is what it is and goes with the house

I have an interesting view on some of the hysteria targeting red meat and beef supposedly creating CC;
some simple science:
methane burped by cattle is made of carbon extracted from existing cycle: air and from grass, the methane is then decomposed within 12y at most into CO2. Co2 which was already there.
Your beef burp is not adding to the planet balance of CO2 as a fossil fuel burning would, just cycling existing one( from the air..or the grass which is cycled every year or so
Basically, cows are not adding anything to the atmospheric CO2
Yes for 12year you get methane instead of CO2 but remember that 12y ago, hey we had cattle then too whose methane has just been switched back to the CO2 it came from.
And 12y ago, we probably had more gorilla, elephants and rhinos so I dout that there is any significant increase in atmospheric methane concentration due to animal origin, the only expending without limit among farting animals I can see affecting the balance are humans, and probably the worst being vegans farting their chickpeas meal.
So eat your red meat steak, fight senility and stop listening to the BS
only by expending more the herds than we remove wild animals and termites could we actually increase methane, but in any case, never expanding the atmospheric CO2.
Beef burping do not add any CO2 in the system.potentially far less than the plant based processed food replacing meat produced using fossil fuels (machinery and fertilisers) especially if sticking to local grass fed beef
Be really green, eat more red meat

 

[basilio]

Not surprisingly in the middle of rapidly increasing global temperatures Asia has endured an intense and record breaking heat wave in April.

Sprawling heat wave envelops large swath of Asia​

• Andrew Freedman, author of Axios Generate

Temperature departures from average in degrees Celsius on April 18, as shown by the European model. Image: Weatherbell.com

An intense and large-scale heat wave has enveloped large parts of Asia during the past two weeks, breaking longstanding records.
The big picture: From India to southern China to Thailand, stifling heat has set in unusually early this year.

• Studies show that this part of the world is especially vulnerable to the impacts of extreme heat.
• China and India alone are home to one third of the world's population.
• The link between more frequent and severe heat waves and human-caused climate change is firmly established, as formerly low probability, high-impact events occur more frequently.

By the numbers: The heat in India has brought temperatures exceeding 40°C (104°F) to numerous locations.

• On Monday, Prayagraj in India reached 44.6°C (112.3°F). Bangladesh also saw temperatures exceeding the 40°C mark, with weather historian Maximiliano Herrera warning, "It will just get worse."
• In China, temperatures have exceeded 35°C (95°F) in multiple provinces; on Monday, more than 100 weather stations broke their monthly high temperature records. Heat records fell in a dozen Chinese provinces.
• On April 15, Thailand set its highest temperature on record for any month, marking the first time the country has exceeded 45°C (113°F) when Tak, in the country's northwest, rose to 45.4°C (113.7°F), Herrera stated via Twitter.
• Many other locations set all-time records that day, too.

Threat level: Herrera called this event the "worst heat wave in Asian history" given its footprint, severity and timing, encompassing at least a dozen countries.

• These events have significant ripple effects. For example, heat waves can curtail daily activities and reduce economic output, from limiting outdoor construction work to closing schools that lack air conditioning.
• In India, the heat has been deadly. At least 13 people died of heat stroke on Sunday while attending a government-sponsored event honoring a revered social worker from Maharashtra. The ceremony was held outdoors, with tens of thousands of people packed close together.

• Typically, the hottest part of the year in much of India and Pakistan is later in April and during May, preceding the South Asian monsoon's arrival.

Between the lines: Though India and Pakistan saw a more severe April heat wave last year, the current system is affecting a much wider area.

• India was also hit by unusual heat during March of this year, too, making 2023 stand out even more.
• China also saw an unparalleled heat wave last year, but it occurred later in the summer.

The bottom line: The most recent report from the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change made clear that "every increment" of additional warming will worsen climate change effects, including heat waves.

Deadly heat wave envelops large swath of Asia, including India and China

Records were set in 12 Chinese provinces, and an outdoor government ceremony in India turned deadly.

www.axios.com