Resisting Climate Hysteria

sptrawler said:

It would be interesting to hear Smurphs take on the Eastern States system security if Hazelwood, or Loy Yang had been shut down.

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Temperatures are on course to rise at least 4 degrees by the end of the century, according to research that finds earlier climate models projecting smaller increases are likely to be wrong.

The research, by a team led by the University of NSW, says a 4-degree rise in temperature would be potentially catastrophic for agriculture in warm regions of the world, including Australia.

Current models estimate a doubling of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere - a level that may be reached by mid-century - will result in temperature rises of between 1.5 degrees and 5 degrees. Instead, the likely range will be 3-5 degrees for twice the amount of C02, the study found.

The publication of the research comes as the top business adviser to Prime Minister Tony Abbott has again caused controversy with comments about the ''delusion'' of global warming and an assertion that climate change policy has destroyed Australia's manufacturing sector and competitiveness.

In an opinion piece in The Australian newspaper, Maurice Newman, Mr Abbott's pick as head of his Business

Advisory Council, said high energy costs caused by the carbon tax and the renewable energy target, introduced under the Howard government, had eroded competitiveness.

Under Labor and the Greens, Australia had been taken hostage by ''climate change madness'', Mr Newman wrote.

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DB008 said:

Climate change: Planet to warm by 4 degrees by 2100




http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/climate-change-planet-to-warm-by-4-degrees-by-2100-20131231-304nw.html#ixzz2qpLyIsVU

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noco said:

But scientist are now saying the Sun's activity has fallen to its lowest in 100 years and we may be headed for another minI ice age where even the Thames River thorugh London could well freeze again.
Perhaps we can now forget about GLOBAL WARMING????????????????GLOBAL WARMING??????WHAT GLOBAL WARMING????????
http://www.couriermail.com.au/techn...s-to-century-low/story-fnjwlbuh-1226805090679

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Logique said:

Everything old is new again Noco. The climate scare of the early 1970s was of a New Ice Age.

The warmists really dislike this sunspot activity idea. You see, climate change is caused, and can only be fixed by humans, at a political level. The Sun?...pfft!

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What if the Sun went into a new Grand Minimum?
Filed under:

Climate Science
Sun-earth connections

— group @ 19 June 2011

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Guest commentary by Georg Feulner

During a meeting of the Solar Physics Division of the American Astronomical Society, solar physicists have just announced a prediction that the Sun might enter an extended period of low activity (a ‘grand minimum’) similar to the Maunder Minimum in the 17th century. In this post I will explore the background of this announcement and discuss implications for Earth’s climate.

It has been known for a long time that solar activity shows a very regular pattern. Every 11 years the Sun is particularly active, and numerous dark sunspots are visible on its surface. These maxima of solar activity are separated by times of low activity when only few (if any) sunspots appear.

......Solar physicists do not yet understand how an extended solar-activity low like the Maunder Minimum arises. Yet there is recent observational evidence for an unusual behavior of the Sun during the current cycle 24, including a missing zonal wind flow within the Sun, decreasing magnetic field strength of sunspots and lower activity around the poles of the Sun. These observations prompted Frank Hill and colleagues to suggest that the Sun might enter a new Maunder-like minimum after the current 11-year cycle ends (i.e. after 2020 or so).

It remains to be seen whether this prognosis turns out to be true (there have been some doubts expressed), but since grand minima of solar activity did occur in the past, it is certainly interesting to explore what effects such a minimum might have on 21st century climate if it did occur. This is precisely the question Stefan Rahmstorf and I investigated in a study published last year (see also our press release. (Earlier estimates for the size of this effect can be found here and here.) In our study we find that a new Maunder Minimum would lead to a cooling of 0.3 °C in the year 2100 at most – relative to an expected anthropogenic warming of around 4 °C. (The amount of warming in the 21st century depends on assumptions about future emissions, of course).

- See more at: http://www.realclimate.org/index.ph...nto-a-new-grand-minimum/#sthash.eetyJcIo.dpuf

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25 percent chance” of Grand Solar Minimum
November 3, 2013

Mike Lockwood is a solar physicist who became a target of climate deniers several years ago when he wrote one of the definitive papers debunking the “it’s all caused by the sun” canard.


Now check and see if this latest interview with him becomes some kind of teapot tempest among the usual suspects.

From Lockwood and Froelich 2007, “Recent oppositely directed trends in solar climate forcings and the global mean surface air temperature”

Watch for this to be spun – I am sure that Dr. Lockwood’s “don’t look for a little ice age” disclaimer’s below show that he is aware of how the game works. (see video above for an example of denialist standard O.P.)

New Scientist:

The sun’s activity is in free fall, according to a leading space physicist. But don’t expect a little ice age. “Solar activity is declining very fast at the moment,” Mike Lockwood, professor of space environmental physics at Reading University, UK, told New Scientist. “We estimate faster than at any time in the last 9300 years.”

Lockwood and his colleagues are reassessing the chances of this decline continuing over decades to become the first “grand solar minimum” for four centuries. During a grand minimum the normal 11-year solar cycle is suppressed and the sun has virtually no sunspotsMovie Camera for several decades. This summer should have seen a peak in the number of sunspots, but it didn’t happen.

Lockwood thinks there is now a 25 per cent chance of a repetition of the last grand minimum, the late 17th century Maunder Minimum, when there were no sunspots for 70 years. Two years ago, Lockwood put the chances of this happening at less than 10 per cent (Journal of Geophysical Research, DOI:10.1029/2011JD017013).

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Little ice age

The Maunder Minimum coincided with the worst European winters of the little ice age, a period lasting centuries when several regions around the globe experienced unusual cooling. Tree ring studies suggest it cooled the northern hemisphere by up to 0.4 °C.

But Lockwood says we should not expect a new grand minimum to bring on a new little ice age. Human-induced global warming, he says, is already a more important force in global temperatures than even major solar cycles. Temperatures have risen by 0.85 °C since 1880, with more expected, according to the most recent assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

http://climatecrocks.com/2013/11/03/25-percent-chance-of-grand-solar-minimum/

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wayneL said:

Interesting ironies basilio.

But irrespective of the case presented, you show a consistent absence of honour, while you persist with the D word.

May your armpits br infested with the fleas of a thousand camels.

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wayneL said:

Interesting ironies basilio.

But irrespective of the case presented, you show a consistent absence of honour, while you persist with the D word.

May your armpits br infested with the fleas of a thousand camels.

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basilio said:

What this infested website really needs Wayne is a specific thread to detail just how routinely and outrageously dishonest climate change denial has become.

I notice you don't have the bottle to acknowledge how Mike Lockwoods research was deliberately twisted to come up with a conclusion he specifically and categorically refuted.

And as I pointed out exactly where is the intellectual honesty(let alone numeracy capacity) in selecting one scientific possibility which could result in a.3C decrease in temperatures and then completely ignoring the remaining body of work which takes us in a completely different direction?

Zilch, zero, 0

____________________________________________________________________________

So, should I start up a specific thread on the 1001 ways climate deniers work ? Or would the sound of apoplectic screams across the blogosphere melt the wires ?

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Andrew E. Dessler
Professor of Atmospheric Sciences
Texas A&M University

My name is Andrew Dessler and I am a professor of atmospheric sciences at Texas A&M University. I have been studying the atmosphere since 1988 and I have published in the peer-reviewed literature on climate change, including studies of the cloud and water vapor feedbacks and climate sensitivity.

In my testimony, I will review what I think are the most important conclusions the climate scientific community has reached in over two centuries of work.Let me begin by describing some important points that we know with high confidence””and how that has led me to personally conclude that climate change is a clear and present danger.

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Antarctic sea ice has grown to a record large extent for a second straight year, baffling scientists seeking to understand why this ice is expanding rather than shrinking in a warming world.
On Saturday, the ice extent reached 19.51 million square kilometers, according to data posted on the National Snow and Ice Data Center Web site. That number bested record high levels set earlier this month and in 2012 (of 19.48 million square kilometers). Records date back to October 1978.

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The bounce back in the extent of sea ice in the Arctic this summer was reflected also in the volume of ice.

Data from Europe's Cryosat spacecraft suggests there were almost 9,000 cu km of ice at the end of this year's melt season.

This is close to 50% more than in the corresponding period in 2012.

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Generation Investment Management, the private equity fund chaired by former U.S. vice president Al Gore, has acquired a 9.5 percent stake in Camco International Ltd, a carbon asset developer.

Generation, set up in 2004 by Gore and David Blood, former chief of Goldman Sachs's asset management arm, now holds 16 million Camco shares, Camco said in a statement.

Camco, which has one of the world's largest carbon credit portfolios, works with companies to identify and develop projects that reduce greenhouse gas emissions and then arranges the sale and delivery of carbon credits.

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the short answer is that a Maundy minimum phenomenon could result in a Global temp drop of .1 to .3C. At the same time we have the overwhelming effect of increasing greenhouse gas emissions which will cause a further 1.5 to 4C increase in global temperatures.

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Logique said:

Basilio,
Citation? Just ridiculous zealotry.

I think the mention of sunspot activity has upset you Basilio. Solar vs anthropogenic, we know which side you are on.

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basilio said:

...
b) The ongoing effects of anthropogenic climate will far outway the very limited possible effects of
solar activity. ...

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burglar said:

By rotating our planet every day, we switch off the solar activity.
The difference is noticeable, to say the least.

So your point is moot, at best!

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