I thought AGWers have been proclaiming the science is settled. If it is settled, how come they are still learning?
Why did they resort to such lies stating it is settled when it wasn't? Why haven't they apologised about claiming it was settled when now you post they didn't foresee some things. Unbelievable.
And Bas, do you have a vested financial interest in carbon tax or global warming? I don't recall you answering that question and I think it is valid given the repetitive spamming you keep dishing up here.
Are you serious Sails ? There is almost never any certainty including science. Every field of science is discovering and learning new things every day.
As far as Global warming goes? This comes down to some solid scientific principles, observed facts and continued research.
The basic scientific principal at the heart of Global warming is the effects of CO2 and other Greenhouse Gases to hold heat in the atmosphere. In fact we wouldn't have a temperate climate on earth if it wasn't for the CO2 component.
So if there is a substantial increase in CO2 and other Greenhouse gases ( methane for example) we would expect the earths temperature to rise.
Current observations have show an increase in the earths temperature as CO2 levels have risen. Climate researchers have extended our knowledge of earths historic climate through drilling in the ice cores of Antarctica. This tells us how CO2 levels climate have changed in the past and the consequent effect this has had on temperatures.
The overwhelming view of climate scientists is that the unrestrained increase in CO2 and other greenhouse gases will cause increases in global temperature. The understanding of biologists and earth scientists is that our current ecosystems and physical environment will be drastically changed if average earth temperatures are raised by any significant figure. We already have .7C degrees increase. A further 1.5 degrees is considered very dangerous. Increases of 2-3-4C degrees will cause havoc to all current ecosystems and make most of the earth uninhabitable for humans.
Of course at this stage we also have total meltdown of the ice caps and increases in sea levels of 80 plus metres.
How certain are scientists about the degree of global warming to come ? It depends on
1) How high the concentration of greenhouse gases rise
2) How much effect will these GG gases have on the temperature. This is called climate sensitivity.
The climate sensitivity of CO2 is still not accurately known.If it proves to be on the lower level of expectations then temperatures will rise more slowly than anticipated. Of course if CO2 levels just keep going up temperatures will follow. And it will all get very messy
If you want a metaphor consider the following.
If you jump off a 1 metre high wall certain things might happen to you. Or they might not.
Make the jump 5 metres and the first statement still holds. We don't know
exactly what will happen if people jump off tall buildings. But we are sure it will be messy and potentially lethal. Or you might be lucky.
What risks are we prepared to take ? How much absolute certainty do we need of what will happen if we jump off a tall building ?
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My interest in "global warming"? Just wanting to survive in a benign world. Just wanting to see my children grow up in at least a similar environment to the one I have enjoyed.
Reference to Antarctic Ice Cores and Environmental Change
http://www.chem.hope.edu/~polik/warming/IceCore/IceCore2.html