wayneL
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Solar Activity/Ozone the major driver of climate change?
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364682612000867
Climate sensitivity to the lower stratospheric ozone variations
N.A. Kilifarska,
National Institute of Geophysics, Geodesy and Geography, BAS
Received 19 August 2011. Revised 5 March 2012. Accepted 8 March 2012. Available online 21 March 2012.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2012.03.002,
ABSTRACT
The strong sensitivity of the Earth's radiation balance to variations in the lower stratospheric ozone – reported previously – is analyzed here by the use of non-linear statistical methods. Our non-linear model of the land air temperature (T) – driven by the measured Arosa total ozone (TOZ) – explains 75% of total variability of Earth's T variations during the period 1926–2011. We have analyzed also the factors which could influence the TOZ variability and found that the strongest impact belongs to the multi-decadal variations of galactic cosmic rays. Constructing a statistical model of the ozone variability, we have been able to predict the tendency in the land air T evolution till the end of the current decade. Results show that Earth is facing a weak cooling of the surface T by 0.05–0.25 K (depending on the ozone model) until the end of the current solar cycle. A new mechanism for O3 influence on climate is proposed.
Highlights
► An increased climate sensitivity to ozone variations is analyzed. ► O3 driven model of surface T explains the greatest part of its variability. ► Impact of different factors on lower stratospheric O3 variability is estimated. ► Galactic cosmic rays have a greatest influence on O3. ► Mechanism for ozone influence on climate is described.
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364682612000867
Climate sensitivity to the lower stratospheric ozone variations
N.A. Kilifarska,
National Institute of Geophysics, Geodesy and Geography, BAS
Received 19 August 2011. Revised 5 March 2012. Accepted 8 March 2012. Available online 21 March 2012.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2012.03.002,
ABSTRACT
The strong sensitivity of the Earth's radiation balance to variations in the lower stratospheric ozone – reported previously – is analyzed here by the use of non-linear statistical methods. Our non-linear model of the land air temperature (T) – driven by the measured Arosa total ozone (TOZ) – explains 75% of total variability of Earth's T variations during the period 1926–2011. We have analyzed also the factors which could influence the TOZ variability and found that the strongest impact belongs to the multi-decadal variations of galactic cosmic rays. Constructing a statistical model of the ozone variability, we have been able to predict the tendency in the land air T evolution till the end of the current decade. Results show that Earth is facing a weak cooling of the surface T by 0.05–0.25 K (depending on the ozone model) until the end of the current solar cycle. A new mechanism for O3 influence on climate is proposed.
Highlights
► An increased climate sensitivity to ozone variations is analyzed. ► O3 driven model of surface T explains the greatest part of its variability. ► Impact of different factors on lower stratospheric O3 variability is estimated. ► Galactic cosmic rays have a greatest influence on O3. ► Mechanism for ozone influence on climate is described.