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Recession? What recession?

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sptrawler said:
I may have the wrong end of the dog, but from my recollection, this is the first time we have actively tried to inflate our debt away.

To me, it just seems we are turbo charging our dive into the U.S model, of a massive social divide.
Click to expand...
Well, as the 51st State of the US of A I guess that is all right then.
 
sptrawler said:
I may have the wrong end of the dog, but from my recollection, this is the first time we have actively tried to inflate our debt away.

To me, it just seems we are turbo charging our dive into the U.S model, of a massive social divide.
Click to expand...
no think after WW1 and WW2 ( and Vietnam war ), but as a social divide device yes that seems possible
 
The surrogate mother and her 2 sisters really gave it to me this morning.
The mob got 220kg of apples and pears yesterday, Grannies and Josephines.
 
The Dallas Fed Manufacturing survey Analysts mostly miss ed with their guestimates.
There has been only one month in the last 12 when the fed survey of expected orders has been positive.
Those surveyed were more optimistic on the prices they would receive.
Looks suspiciously like a pattern of stagflation.
Production slowing down, but an expectation of higher prices per unit.



Mick
 
Those who fail to heed the lessons of history are inclined to repeat its mistakes.
The above saying is often trotted out, but rarely understood or acted upon.
Mick


 
The following chart could have gone into a number of threads, but I ended up choosing this one as I reckonthats where the US and also the rest of the world is heading.


Mick
 
A couple of Data points from the USA.
1. Nike has reported a 10% drop in sales in the first quarter of 2024 (source WSJ ).
Macdonalds had already indicated the first quarter was the fourth in a row where its sales had decreased. (Source Reuters )
3M had reported a 2.6% decline in sales revenue in the first quarter, and are expecting worse in the secod quarter ( source Reuters )
POOL corporation US biggest swimming pool manufuacturer, had reported sales down 6.5% YOY . ( source Yahoo finance )
Coca Cola North American earnings were flat for the first quarter this year (source CNBC )
2. Walgreens, a huge Pharmacy chain with around 8,600 stores that also sells food, snacks, and other non pharmacy items) , will close 25% of of its stores, putting 57,000 employees out of work.
3. persona consumption, the engine of US GDP, is on the downward slope.

4. From Zero Hedge


Mick
 
Meanwhile, despite the fake job creation figures from the BLS,
Continuing unemployment claims are still rising.
Mick


And thanks to the wonders of being able to revise upwards or downwards past months figures, you can make any month look better.



Mick
 
And in another announce,ment, a chain of Arby's resturants has filed for bankruptcy.
From National Restaurant News

One of the most telling parts of this story was that restaurants did not get the leel of government subsidies they were relying on.
Miracle’s working capital also has been hampered by delays in $3.5 million in tax refunds it applied for under Employee Retention Tax Credits, which it requested in the quarters ended March 31, 2021, through September 30, 2021.
Click to expand...

Mick
 
RCI Hositality Industries , is a large US company that operates a lot of "hositality" venues, aka strip clubs.
Its a great barometer of the economy, as its a discretionary spending item.
Its price peaked just shy of 100 bucks back in January 2023.
Its now at $40.
Mick

 

That's a 50/50 for me. Hospitality is definitely an indicator, but people are changing, young men are less likely to visit strip clubs compared to the previous generations. Some governments around the world are making it difficult for such venues to operate and new ones to open.
 
Of course, and these alternates only started happening in Jan 2023.
Mick
 
mullokintyre said:
Of course, and these alternates only started happening in Jan 2023.
Mick
Click to expand...

No, but what I am saying is that change has been happening for a while and reaction happens slowly. I agree that hospitality is a great indicator of how the economy is traveling, but I'm more reserved on which sectors of hospitality I would look at. Hence why I mentioned 50/50.
 
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