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RAU - Republic Gold

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Citicorp Nominees have reduced their holding by another 7m shares on 30 Nov - ASX after market announcement.

No doubt taking a bit more profit... or are they loosing confidence? :confused:

Given the failed deals that RAU have had in the past, despite confidently talking up the prospects, I start getting worried when an important deal like Mt Carbine is extended for a third time.

I guess I have a bit of a lawyer mind :cautious: but Kelly said they have made an offer and need more time to decide on a mutually agreeable price. That's a long way from 'we have a deal but we just need to get the paperwork done'. I worry that could be as close to doing a deal as the Luzon arrangement was. :mad:

I hope my concerns are proven wrong, but it's a worry in the meantime.
 
Whiskers said:
Been trying to get a handle on when to get back in here. I initially indicated 10 to 12c based on previous support in that area.

However it looks like a Bearish pennant has formed, albeit pretty minimalist, and unsure how reliable, but pointing to a low around 5c. :eek:

As mentioned earlier there was a bearish evening star that halted the bull run. A Dark Cloud formed on the 21st and an engulfing Bearish candle on the 26th, albeit on a doji, so again not sure how reliable, but all in all the indicators seem to be pointing to more downward movement to an intraday low abt 5c.

5c seems a bit severe, but still leaves a fully diluted MC abt $40m which upon further concideration seems reasonable at this stage of development for what is known and reasonably able to be estimated compared to similar companies. eg I recently did a guestimate valuation for KAL which has a similar MC but has 1.2 m oz Au compared to an estimated .75m oz with a bit more drilling for RAU. Both also have good relatively undrilled prospects.

Am I missing something? I don't have any figures on the possible or potential sizes and values of the so far non JORC recources and prospects. Do they warrant a higher share price for the moment? :confused:

Anyone got better data to suggest otherwise?
Click to expand...

Whiskers, I think many of the punters who are playing this stock have failed to observe that the gold price has taken a hit over the last few weeks and the fact that we may have a US$ rally of some kind may pull the rug from under gold stocks. RAU is still known as a gold with some decent assets here. Your technical interpretation IMHO is fairly reasonable although i think 7-10 cents may be a more reasonable base.

See chart below, technicals are oversold but uniformly bearish both on MACD and stochastics which may "cleanse" all of the stall bulls into support at 7-10 cents.
 

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sydneysider said:
Whiskers, I think many of the punters who are playing this stock have failed to observe that the gold price has taken a hit over the last few weeks and the fact that we may have a US$ rally of some kind may pull the rug from under gold stocks. RAU is still known as a gold with some decent assets here. Your technical interpretation IMHO is fairly reasonable although i think 7-10 cents may be a more reasonable base.

See chart below, technicals are oversold but uniformly bearish both on MACD and stochastics which may "cleanse" all of the stall bulls into support at 7-10 cents.
Click to expand...

Well, this is what day traders and momentum can do to a companies SP. RAU went through a period there of being one of the biggest traded stocks on the ASX and with the momentum saw phenominal moves in SP.
I got on early and reduced my holding by half at 20c. My remaining holding i am in for the long term. RAU has now demonstrated that it is a diversified company with gold, tungsten and copper anomolies. To me it carries reduced risk through this diversification.
I know this phrase is used a lot, but 'the fundamentals of RAU have not changed' from when the company SP hit 29c to where it is at close of day today at 12c.
It would seem to me that Mt Carbine will go ahead as soon as they settle on a price. We still have a number of drilling results due including the very exciting Whumbal West tungsten anomaly.
To me the SP is just settling out to a range where it should be, prior to the short term trader momentum and SP exageration. Good luck to all fellow long term holders and don't be dis-heartened by the SP settling! This is all only IMO, so DYOR! :D
 
Nice little rally from yesterday to this morning. Would have been a good trade if I saw it coming.

Not sure that it has bottomed out yet.

Looks like today could end with a shooting star. That being the case likely down a bit tomorrow.
 
Re: RAU - Republic Gold - Change of Director`s Interest Notice

7 Dec 2007 12:02 Change of Director`s Interest Notice

It appears 2 directors have jusst exercised some options
G.Barns acquired 2M shares @ 6.25c (under his name) = cost $125K
J.Kelly acquired 765K shares @ 2.5c (via Zeus Pty Ltd) = cost $19K

Given current SP of 13c, now worth $260K and $99k respectively - nice profit!

It may not mean much, but I get nervous when directors exercise options when the share price is currently so low. Does it mean they think the SP will go down even lower, I don't know? Anyone?

I saw some obvious fanboy ramping on HC yesterday made it jump a little, can't help thinking what's going on with this stock. Does it have any confirmed resources etc etc?

PS - I still hold some from 21c :(
 
Re: RAU - Republic Gold - Change of Director`s Interest Notice

Bowey said:
7 Dec 2007 12:02 Change of Director`s Interest Notice

It appears 2 directors have jusst exercised some options
G.Barns acquired 2M shares @ 6.25c (under his name) = cost $125K
J.Kelly acquired 765K shares @ 2.5c (via Zeus Pty Ltd) = cost $19K

Given current SP of 13c, now worth $260K and $99k respectively - nice profit!

It may not mean much, but I get nervous when directors exercise options when the share price is currently so low. Does it mean they think the SP will go down even lower, I don't know? Anyone?

I saw some obvious fanboy ramping on HC yesterday made it jump a little, can't help thinking what's going on with this stock. Does it have any confirmed resources etc etc?

PS - I still hold some from 21c :(
Click to expand...

Hi Bowey.

I suspect it has more to do with maintaining control of the company. I mentioned earlier that two companies, Zeus and Citicorp had acquired about 20% of the company. Although Citicorp has sold down it stake a bit since, they still have a very substantial voting position.

I think the exercise of these options to fully paid shares has probably been bought on out of concern for loosing control of the company.

EDIT: Just checked the numbers. Citicorp had nearly 13%, but as I said sold down some. Possible they could be buying back now at lower prices. Zeus is associated with some of the directors and it's interest got watered down a bit by the recent placement, so you would assume that it would support RAU.
 
actually this is a good thing :

1. shows confidence in the company
2. directors will try to exercise as close to the lowest price as possible to minimise taxes

DW im in for much higher a T+3 trade gone bad...
 
Yep, both replies make sense.

I would like to know, is there a minimum volume or % at which director transactions are announced, or is the company obliged to announce ALL director buy/sell transactions? I ask this because it would be good to know whether the directors cash out immediately after exercising the options or if they keep.
 
Good start to the week….ip 1.5c to 14.5c….the sell-off on Friday looks like profit taking from the run from 10.5c to 16c last week….

When do you guys reckon will we see the next batch of announcements re drilling & the biggest one of them – Mt Carbine?

Too many things to look forward to out here and the two-way movement of the past 8-10 trading days has kept the holders nervous IMO….
 
The Burraga drills results have been released today with some encouraging results. We will probably get a radio ann out sometime today or tommorrow to further elaborate. That's why I think the SP has jumped a bit today.

On Mt Carbine it doesn't look like anything will be signed until early in January 2008 as John Kelly tries to finalise the deal. I think the vendor might be trying to squeeze as much out of RAU as possible.
 
anyone knows what happen to RAU?
is it citicorp reducing its shares again?
seems twice HUGE transactions wipe out all buyers to 10.5c.
any ideas?
 
powerkoala said:
anyone knows what happen to RAU?
is it citicorp reducing its shares again?
seems twice HUGE transactions wipe out all buyers to 10.5c.
any ideas?
Click to expand...

Don't know yet powerkoala, but one would expect it is citicorp.

Todays ann wasn't very flash. Had a look at the charts again and I'm afraid there is more downside coming I think.

I think after all the optermistic expectation furnished by John Kelly, they will need to pull something pretty spectactular out of the hat now to turn the share price around. Maybe the gold prospects will provide that for them.

Problem is if citicorp decide to evacuate totally we could see the share price beat down under 10c... maybe to that 5c that I came up with earlier. :eek:
 
With a 'yet to dig anything out of the ground mining company', whenever there's a spike in the share price it pays to flog your holding this works about 9 times out of 10, you can always buy in again later, usually at a much lower price. porkpie
 
Re: RAU - Chinese Investors

Today's release by RAU, not sure if a turnover of AUD$3B would be considered a "major" mining group in China, seems overstated to me. Anyway, market has already factored this into the current pricing and I don't think it will do much today, given the state of the market.

Cheers,


HIGHLY PRODUCTIVE VISIT BY CHINESE DELEGATION


The Board of Republic Gold (“Republic” or the “Company”) today announces that over the past weekend the Company hosted a delegation of senior executives from a major Chinese mining group. This mining group has an annual turnover of approximately AUD$3B.

The members of the delegation expressed great interest in investing outside of China and in Republic’s prospects in particular. This company has two investments already outside of China, both in Africa. The delegation travelled to Australia with the sole purpose of visiting the Company to view its projects and hold preliminary discussions on a possible involvement with Republic. A
follow-up visit has already been agreed and will take place in the New Year.

The delegation was particularly interested in the Company’s gold projects in Far North Queensland and in the Burraga Copper Project. This is an excellent compliment for the Malaysian Chinese investors who have predominantly invested in the Company because of the tungsten
projects.

Yours faithfully
John Kelly
 
seems like we're starting to lose interest in this company..
Does anyone here know when new announcements will be up?

i've still got holdings from when the shareprice was in the 20s :(
 
hardcoremike said:
seems like we're starting to lose interest in this company..
Does anyone here know when new announcements will be up?

i've still got holdings from when the shareprice was in the 20s :(
Click to expand...

Don't know when more announcements are coming Mike, but my reading of the charts hasn't changed much from sydneysiders earlier chart. Still looking south and no sign of turning yet, for me.

I'm feeling a bit tempted to buy back in under 10c at the moment.
 
Hey Mike,

Bare in mind part of this selloff being based on Overall downward market pressure, and till that is lifted sellers are likely to selldown.

Perhaps we could see some releif should XAO bounce off 6000 and RAU news hits soon after.

OR perhaps XAO will test the Aug lows of around 5450...????

SevenFX
 
Just out...

20 December 2007
The Manager
Companies Announcement Platform
Australian Stock Exchange Limited

FURTHER HIGHLY ENCOURAGING MULTIPLE MINERALISED ZONES ENCOUNTERED AT BURRAGA

KEY POINTS
♦ Best intersections of 3.9 metres at 1.48% Zn, 0.93% Pb & 8.3 g/t Ag, 2.5 metres at 0.97% Cu & 9.4 g/t Ag and 2.35 metres at 0.95% Zn, 0.72% Pb & 6.1 g/t Ag.
♦ The range of base & precious metals mineralisation encountered in the initial
drillholes at Burraga continues to be encountered – copper (Cu), zinc (Zn), lead (Pb), gold (Au) and silver (Ag)
♦ Best individual analyses of 7.56% Zn, 3.20% Pb, 3.08% Cu, 0.28 g/t Au and 22.4 g/t Ag
♦ The 3.9 metre intersection equates to 2.75 g/t Au and the 2.5 metre intersection equates to 2.85 g/t Au at current metal prices
♦ Further Burraga analysis results are awaited
♦ Burraga is a large target with dimensions of up to 4,000 x 900 metres. Drilling to-date now confirms base and precious metal mineralisation over a strike length of 850 metres on the western limb of the syncline
♦ A stage 2 drilling programme will be designed following the receipt of the remaining analysis results.

The Board of Republic Gold (“Republic” or the “Company”) today announces that it has received the third batch of analysis results from the recently completed drilling programme at the 75%-owned Burraga Copper Project that is located in mineral-rich Central New South Wales.

The results continue to confirm the potential for a large scale body of mineralisation at Burraga.

These new analysis results are for part of drillholes RCR-002 and RCR-003. These analysis results continue to confirm the polymetallic nature of Burraga.
Managing Director of Republic Gold, Mr John Kelly said “These analysis results are the highest combined metal grades encountered in this drilling programme to-date and indicate that Burraga has the potential to host an economic body of polymetallic mineralisation. The positive results in RCR-003 mean that the mineralised structure that this hole is drilled on is now extended to 850 metres in length when the results of four other holes are taken into account.”
 
Any geologist out here? Please comment on these grades....I am so blind with these grades that I wouldn't understand a word out of it all....these are just a lot of numbers for me....sorry about that as I am just a humble IT guys & all the numbers I understand is IP addresses....
 
mr_delta said:
Any geologist out here? Please comment on these grades....I am so blind with these grades that I wouldn't understand a word out of it all....these are just a lot of numbers for me....sorry about that as I am just a humble IT guys & all the numbers I understand is IP addresses....
Click to expand...

These results are not exciting, values are low, interesctions are thin. RAU is now captive to firming US$ and bearish trends in gold. The whole gold sector has been "whacked". RAU was a wild ride on the upside and same on the downside. Recent placement was at 7.5 cents which IMHO represents reasonable "fair value". Stay way from stocks that look like "falling knives" as the turning point could be quite bloody.
 
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