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RAU - Republic Gold

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It's going to be a significant day for RAU today I think. It is worth noting that citicorp sold down about 36m shares to take their stake from abt 12% to abt 6%.

That evening star still bothers me a bit. The third leg, the big down day was overdone a bit and accounts for a little rise back before another down day yesterday.

If good assays are posted today I think the price will probably hold above .20, but if they don't get those assay results sorted out and reported this morning, I can see the last of the DT's moving on and the price coming down further... maybe even to .10 to .12 area.

That would be my cue to get back in.
 

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I sold my holding Wednesday last week @ around 26 cents and bought back in @ 16 cents the following day. I sold yesterday @ 23 cents in the absence of any news.
Whiskers if they do drop (seems unlikely) to 10-12 cents I wont hesitate to jump back in. I don't think it will drop below last Thursday's low of 16 cents.
I've been enjoying the Republic ride, its been several Christmas presents come at once. :D
 
What did you think of today's report? It seems that the market was not impressed. On the other hand the negativity may be due to what happened in the US and UK overnight.
 
calabrese said:
What did you think of today's report? It seems that the market was not impressed. On the other hand the negativity may be due to what happened in the US and UK overnight.
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Hi calabrese.

Todays report relates to a very small part of the project. It doesn't highlight any obvious economic resource yet, but a few small economic sections seems to confirm some optimism about the project. I think the market was probably expecting more from the first announcement due to the fact that, as I pointed out earlier, John Kelly has been pumping the news at every possibility and a lot of excited investers and DT's jumped on board.

One should keep an eye on all the factors affecting the share price. Cu has been weakening of late and Au is weakening still. I think Cu might have bottomed out but Au may fall to the low 700's before it kicks on. Also the US market is continuing to sour. All of this will have a dampening effect on the share price for awhile, despite DT's trying to pump it up.

The evening star is a bear signal which I lodged firmly in my psyce and so I am expecting the price to trend a bit lower than, and look for support below the recent high's. I am still keen on the company, but also as mentioned earlier they have a lot of shares on issue and options in the money which I think makes the recent prices overvalued at this stage of development, so I will be watching for the cycle to overcorrect and buy back in again.

Good work Aargh.

I was tempted to try to emulate your nice work, but I turned my interest elsewhere for the time being.
 
Hi whiskers. I'm a noobie at this, when you mean you'll wait for things to correct and buy back in, isn't the SP already fairly low atm so wouldn't around .19 be a low price

cheers.
 
Mike,

To what reference to you think the share price is low? Ie - is it market cap, or based on the projects the companies projects?

The price of an individual share has no effect. A co coule have 1billion shares @ 20c meaning 200mill market cap or 500mill shares @ 20c meaning 100mil market cap.

Share price really means nothing unless it is in relation to something.

Hope this helps
 
hardcoremike said:
Hi whiskers. I'm a noobie at this, when you mean you'll wait for things to correct and buy back in, isn't the SP already fairly low atm so wouldn't around .19 be a low price

cheers.
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Hi Mike.

RAU has risen rapidly in the last month and may have some more retracement to fill, as not long ago it was trading at 2.9c :D

These movements may be compounded or further rises may be hindered given the choppy market were in atm.

However the right sort good news has been known to rally stocks desipte the rest of the market free falling IMO.

Welcome to ASF.
Cheers
SevenFX
 
hardcoremike said:
Hi whiskers. I'm a noobie at this, when you mean you'll wait for things to correct and buy back in, isn't the SP already fairly low atm so wouldn't around .19 be a low price

cheers.
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Hi hardcoremike.

I see Prawn and SevenFX have summed it up pretty well.

There has been a about a five times increase in the share price and fundamentally as well as techinically I feel it is getting a bit ahead of value for the stage of development of the projects. I don't discount the prospects of the company. It's just that for me it was overbought for the time being.

This is how I did the rough valuation to determine my value. There are about 597m shares on issue and 214m options mostly exerciseable at 2.5c.

At 20c per share the market cap is abt $119.4m. Fully diluted, (all options exercised) will bring in abt $6.5m to the company, and increase FPO shares to abt 811m and a market cap to $125.9m.

BUT because the exercise price of the options is so low the effect is a net dilution of value per share. The market cap is marginally increased to $125.9m. Upon exercise of the options, divide that by the new number of FPO shares and the value of a share becomes $125.9m / 811 = 15.5c per share.

At 20c I see their actual (diluted) value discounted to 15.5c because it seems inevitable that the options will be exercised. The higher the price goes the wider that difference will become. Conversely the lower it falls the less the gap.

So, in summary it is a matter of working out the market cap, checking that against the value of the assets of the company and in this case discounting for the exercise of options.
 
RAU still not what I call tanked, and seems to have little more to go... if it's going to recover to it's highs...

Bargin Basement or Premium Pirces...????

SevenFX
 
SevenFX said:
RAU still not what I call tanked, and seems to have little more to go... if it's going to recover to it's highs...

Bargin Basement or Premium Pirces...????

SevenFX
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MACD is stll in its "rollover phase" indicating further weakness ahead. I would stand aside and watch the distribution phase finish its work. Another point that might be relevant to the golds is that the US$ may be attempting a rally that will send down the gold price. I do not hold any golds at this time. I did a very interesting switch from RAU into MKY which holds adjoining leases to RAU in the Palmer River (for uranium) and which has much better technical action. So a switch in the RAU oppies from the 20-22 cents level to MKY at 5.1 to 5.5 is paying handsome dividends (now 6 cents). The Palmer River area may turn out to be a treasure trove of various metals.
 
rollover phase quite right but i believe the price drop mainly reflect investor lack of enough confidence dut to external element follow asx index drop(also successive bad news from american) whenever they wake up the price will rise after all RAU is a good one with good outlook.by the way i believe gold price will last rising until next year may be after march because chinese and indian traditional new year high demand for gold also due to high oil price
 
rapture2002ca said:
Seems like more downward selling pressure for RAU today, everyone must be waiting for the deal about Mt Carbine to be released.
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Mt Carbine news due any day now. I expect it to be positive and that they will aquire it as everything that John Kelly has mentioned about it has been positive right up to the boardroom radio interview yesterday.
There are also more drilling results due in the near future from a number of prospects.
I sold a portion of my holding at 20c and am not panicking at all with the SP back at 15.5c currently. I still believe there is a lot of upside potential for RAU and am in for the long term. :D
 
It's an exciting day for all holders. Approval (or less likely disapproval) of Mt Carbine will happen today.

I have been on and off the RAU ride and I'm back on board :rolleyes:
 
Called Republic today, John Kelly answered...asked him about when drill results next out, he said should be soon, maybe next week .....didnt ask him about Carbine, forgot to !!...must admit it I did not expect JK to answer, thought a secretary, maybe it was the o/s number I called in on, but he seemed like a real nice guy and had time to chat.
 
Superfly said:
Called Republic today, John Kelly answered...asked him about when drill results next out, he said should be soon, maybe next week .....didnt ask him about Carbine, forgot to !!...must admit it I did not expect JK to answer, thought a secretary, maybe it was the o/s number I called in on, but he seemed like a real nice guy and had time to chat.
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Yeah he is a good guy. Talked to him also. The decision on Carbine is being made today. Not sure if they'll release to market this afternoon or on Monday.
 
RAU finished 1.5c down today, seems like more sellers than buyers at the moment.

I wonder if it is the calm before the storm, hopefully we will get some good news next week.
 
Been trying to get a handle on when to get back in here. I initially indicated 10 to 12c based on previous support in that area.

However it looks like a Bearish pennant has formed, albeit pretty minimalist, and unsure how reliable, but pointing to a low around 5c. :eek:

As mentioned earlier there was a bearish evening star that halted the bull run. A Dark Cloud formed on the 21st and an engulfing Bearish candle on the 26th, albeit on a doji, so again not sure how reliable, but all in all the indicators seem to be pointing to more downward movement to an intraday low abt 5c.

5c seems a bit severe, but still leaves a fully diluted MC abt $40m which upon further concideration seems reasonable at this stage of development for what is known and reasonably able to be estimated compared to similar companies. eg I recently did a guestimate valuation for KAL which has a similar MC but has 1.2 m oz Au compared to an estimated .75m oz with a bit more drilling for RAU. Both also have good relatively undrilled prospects.

Am I missing something? I don't have any figures on the possible or potential sizes and values of the so far non JORC recources and prospects. Do they warrant a higher share price for the moment? :confused:

Anyone got better data to suggest otherwise?
 

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Announcement from RAU this morning. I guess that confirms my analysis a bit. I wasn't surprised to see this extension of time because it seemed to me that a lot of things had to fall into place pretty well first shot to live up to the timeline expectations that were generated. I can understand that because there are certainly some good looking prospects if we are to believe what we are being told.

Still those interesting assay results to come though. But anticipating a pre xmas glut at the labs, they might take a bit longer too.

PURCHASE OFFER MADE FOR MT CARBINE
The Board of Republic Gold (“Republic” or the “Company”) today announces that it has made an
offer to purchase Mt Carbine and the associated quarrying businesses. The vendor has agreed to
a further extension of the exclusivity arrangement to enable the parties to hold discussions on a
mutually acceptable purchase price and to draw up the sale documentation.
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Another radio broadcast my John Kelly this evening about the Mt Carbine deal.

Looks like they are in the final stages but just need a proposal to be signed off which may take another few weeks. It looks lik a goer once done.

What do you techie's think about the news on Mt Carbine so far?
 
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