Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

RAU - Republic Gold

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Word has it there has been a fair bit of accumulation happening over the last few weeks.....whether this surge is pump-and-dump, or people buying because they are in the know, remains to be seen.

I'll continue to hold for some time - plenty o' cash, no debt, sitting on some solid deposits - will come good eventually (either in take-over or make it happen themselves).
 
hi guys, im quite new to this forum, just wondering if you guys know what triggers the price and volume rise today?

any chance of breaking 0.06?
 
re 30/11/ ann, letter of intent signed with regional govt in bolivia and in discussions with bolivian govt re approval to explore up to 50% of el mutun - amongst world's largest underdeveloped fe projects

potential to host target resource of up to 40Bt @ 50% fe

i say, i say, i say ... 40 billion t (up to 50% being up to 20Bt)

indian co currently developing other 50% of project

rau currently has gold project in bolivia

sp currently 0.028

marketrazon has landed
asf 100% el mutun
 
happytown said:
re 30/11/ ann, letter of intent signed with regional govt in bolivia and in discussions with bolivian govt re approval to explore up to 50% of el mutun - amongst world's largest underdeveloped fe projects

potential to host target resource of up to 40Bt @ 50% fe

i say, i say, i say ... 40 billion t (up to 50% being up to 20Bt)

indian co currently developing other 50% of project

rau currently has gold project in bolivia

sp currently 0.028

marketrazon has landed
asf 100% el mutun
Click to expand...

These projects are in Bolivia which is run by Morales who is a "soul mate' of his neigbor Hugo Chavez. Chavez has a habit of taking other peoples assets such as most of the resources industry in Venz. He took Las Christinas from Crystallex which is a 12 million ounce gold orebody. Both of these characters are now in Copenhagen singing the praises of Communism and death of capitalism. There are videos on You Tube of the delegates cheering wildly to the death of capitalism. IMHO this might explain why the Bolivian assets of RAU are only worth 2.7 cents because of the political risk involved. No-one can judge what will eventually happen in Bolivia if Morales stays on and becomes more like Chavez, but the risk IMHO is too high. Good luck to RAU longs, this is all a question of measuring risk. Better to be in places like Brazil which is a stones throw away.
 
Yes I would agree with the accumulation and commencement of a new uptrend occuring. I have attached a chart and some caluclations over the last 17 days which show significant accumulation in my view.

Firstly (Picture 1) I have posted the Green days as up days, Red is down days there is significant more accumulation than distribution

4196098244_0dd6e8e41a_o.png


Next (Picture 2 chart 1) is the chart showing accumulation via the OBV, on balance volume indicator and most likely supports. It is worthy to note a new uptrend is in the progress of forming, which will be demonstrated in chart 3

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Finally (Picture 3 chart 2) shows the emerging up trend (current primary trend up) now testing supports (secondary trend down)

4195182086_023d84d27f_o.png

One would have to consider this maybe a good entry point, for the on coming year. Drilling results Far Nth Qld, expected mid to late January 2010; production to commence 1st Qtr and then Bolivier by end of 2010 so should be a steady stream of anns comming out during the year from begining to end.

Yes is speculative, however when buying on support risk is minimised.

Have a great Christmas and New Year

P.S. Do your research and make your own decisions, this is not deamed in any way shape or form to be financial advice
 

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Worth keeping an eye on RAU too with Amayapampa in Bolivia moving forwards - once DFS is finished they should get a bit of a boost with fairly low cost (not sure of $/oz?) production a positive.

Reasonably priced atm IMO.
 
Thought I'd bump this again - I don't hold but I'd like to hear opinions about why the SP hasn't appreciated more since release of the BFS.

Essentially the NPV shows $366m at $1200/oz and the company's MC is currently $20m????

Cash costs are forecast at under $400/oz, capital cost of $140m which they are going to issue $100m in bonds to cover most of at "very competitive rates".

Yes they have 1.7bn shares issued and are looking at another 400m in a SPP at 1c to raise $4m more. Then they are looking at an equity component of the financing for another say $40m which at 1c/share would mean another 4bn shares:eek: Still while that means a total of 6bn shares on issue, if they are making $800/oz and producing 90koz a year that is $72m a year or say $50m a year after tax and royalties, which is 0.8c per share.

Given their current SP of 1-1.1c, it seems like they have some serious rerating ahead over the next 12-18 months...with a conservative PE of 5 gives a SP of 4c!

Any comments?
 
Another update for anyone interested

Latest ann stated they have appointed the top bond financier in Bolivia to arrange $100m bond issue to finance Amayapampa. Still looking pretty attractive around 1.2-1.3c with a MC of only $25m. Producing 80k oz of gold at $450/oz makes for some nice margins even if gold drops back to $1000 (which I don't think anyone is forecasting atm:eek:)
 
noirua said:
More drilling results due as Republic Gold, ASX:RAU, move to becoming the largest gold miner, with their Amayapampa Gold Mine, in Bolivia.
http://www.republicgold.com.au
An interesting company website to browse for a while.
Click to expand...

A massive drilling campaign is taking place at Amayapampa to prove up and extend Bolivia's biggest gold project. Drilling started in August and results are expected from the three drilling rigs from October to December - the tension mounts.
 
noirua said:
A massive drilling campaign is taking place at Amayapampa to prove up and extend Bolivia's biggest gold project. Drilling started in August and results are expected from the three drilling rigs from October to December - the tension mounts.
Click to expand...

Batting in three directions are Republic.
1). Massive drilling campaign underway last August to extend and prove up resource.
2). Fund raising to be finalised for $136m plant.
3). Maintaining the Governments quest to improve the position of people in and around the Amayapampa future mine.

Voting for favorite stock forum is at: http://www.thebull.com.au/the_stockies/forums.html
 
noirua said:
Batting in three directions are Republic.
1). Massive drilling campaign underway last August to extend and prove up resource.
2). Fund raising to be finalised for $136m plant.
3). Maintaining the Governments quest to improve the position of people in and around the Amayapampa future mine.
Click to expand...


Whats your interpretation of the results so far noirua, are they looking for higher grades or for an economic, large open pit with low costs ?
 
mr. jeff said:
Whats your interpretation of the results so far noirua, are they looking for higher grades or for an economic, large open pit with low costs ?
Click to expand...

mr.jeff et al, as you may know Amayapampa has a chequered history and under the previous government there was a massacre at this gold mine as the army was sent in. It was in 1996 but this has always made this an environmental headache and memories run very deep - the reason the stock price is so low though a $136m cash raising is also needed.
At 0.4c a share the market cap is around $14m for a future gold mine that has a bankable feasibility study completed and reserves to last 10 years already.
At the moment there is a 3-phase drilling plan underway that started in late August and the plan is to widen and firm up the resource - results are due anytime now though RAU from past history give out results over a long period that may run to the next Autumn, in Australia that is.

Take away the Latin American risk factors and funding, then this stock is already worth far more. Risk factor about 75% and maybe 90% when drilling results are known.
 
noirua said:
Batting in three directions are Republic.
1). Massive drilling campaign underway last August to extend and prove up resource.
2). Fund raising to be finalised for $136m plant.
3). Maintaining the Governments quest to improve the position of people in and around the Amayapampa future mine.
Click to expand...

As most will know, everything fell apart as far as Republic are concerned at Amayapampa. Now negotiating the sale of the mine with a number of companies and from a fairly weak position; MD in Bolivia has resigned with the MD of Republic and the CFO taking over, it seems, for the final run in.

A gamble here with it likely to turn out OK for those paying just 0.2c for their stock and who knows what the price may be in the end.

It looks as if Republic should get work for the handover of the company for 12 to 18 months.
 
noirua said:
As most will know, everything fell apart as far as Republic are concerned at Amayapampa. Now negotiating the sale of the mine with a number of companies and from a fairly weak position; MD in Bolivia has resigned with the MD of Republic and the CFO taking over, it seems, for the final run in.

A gamble here with it likely to turn out OK for those paying just 0.2c for their stock and who knows what the price may be in the end.

It looks as if Republic should get work for the handover of the company for 12 to 18 months.
Click to expand...

... and so it is coming to pass. An announcement at 3pm on Friday (strange time) says, that a non-binding agreement has been reached for the sale of the company's Bolivian subsidiary; owns 100% rights over the Amayapampa future gold mine.

RAU have had to sell, with the company's market cap only $7 million at 0.2c a share and development costs at around $136 million, hardly a goer.

Rumours in the Bolivian press say the agreement is around US$34 million which covers exploration expenditure. Some might say 'great' but I doubt any money will arrive that easily and may only be paid once certain hurdles are crossed. We all know that cash in a company is often discounted if it is going partly on overheads and a gamble on a future mine.

However, Republic at 0.2c might be seen as a fair gamble.
 
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