Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

RAU - Republic Gold

Jump to new
Very dissapointing day for RAU.

I'm a newbie to trading and have just recently become Chess sponsored.

Unfortunately when I bought RAU last week it was under an SRN. As I don't have my SRN statement yet I was unable to sell out at 22c due to not having the SRN number.

So I've been burned literally today. I can't wait to convert this thing to Chess when finally I get my statement. Too little to late I'm afraid.

Anyone else get caught in this rout?
 
rapture2002ca said:
The ann hasn't made much of an impact yet.

I'm betting they just released it to stop the panic that is going on today.
Click to expand...

that's a fair assumption, anyway if you're a newbie this is a crash course in speccies, RAU has been on steroids the past week, win / lose / draw you'll be the better for it. I hold but took some profits yesterday. Good luck.
 
rapture2002ca said:
The ann hasn't made much of an impact yet.

I'm betting they just released it to stop the panic that is going on today.
Click to expand...

AS I warned three days ago a correction was warranted and it has been a severe high volume one (so far). Volume tends to run with trend and a down volume day of over 125,000,000 shares has smashed up all of the technical signals and sent them into the basement. My personal opinion is to stay way from this type of behavior until all of the panic (including T3 traders) washes out of the stock. Trying to guess up or down now is like picking red or black at the casino.

I was very pleasantly suprised at how quickly RAU "blew up". I suspect that a bunch of Asian money blew thru the stock and sucked in a lot of daytraders along the way. Will come back to look at this late next week.
 
X888 said:
imaginator you should do your research :)
Click to expand...

Thanks!
hehe, i was too caught up with the numbers and volume :D

But ended at 0.17, did anyone pick up more today?

It's strange, why so much interest from the public yesterday, but today they seem to cool????? Very very strange! EXM too!
 
Well hey, the market is well and truly down today.
Who would have thought on a day when the US finished positively we are in the red.
 
imaginator said:
Thanks!
hehe, i was too caught up with the numbers and volume :D

But ended at 0.17, did anyone pick up more today?

It's strange, why so much interest from the public yesterday, but today they seem to cool????? Very very strange! EXM too!
Click to expand...

I had been holding for a month and sold yesterday at 27c with a tidy profit.
I bought back in today at 16c.
 
imaginator said:
Thanks!
hehe, i was too caught up with the numbers and volume :D

But ended at 0.17, did anyone pick up more today?

It's strange, why so much interest from the public yesterday, but today they seem to cool????? Very very strange! EXM too!
Click to expand...


Today had nothing to do with fundamentals or long term holders. Today was all about traders taking profits off the table. This will always happen when a stock runs as hard as this has recently.

Traders have no interest in the long term potential of a stock. They just ride the wave, take a profit and move on.

Its all just part of the overall market.
 
Today I learned the value and importance of placing conditional orders for a "stop loss". The damage was minimised...phew!:bowdown:
 
Looking at the buy & sell quotes today there's lots of small lots on the buy side, on the sell side it looks like large lots, more than likely an institution(s) averageing down there exposure. porkpie
 
dubiousinfo said:
Today had nothing to do with fundamentals or long term holders. Today was all about traders taking profits off the table. This will always happen when a stock runs as hard as this has recently.

Traders have no interest in the long term potential of a stock. They just ride the wave, take a profit and move on.

Its all just part of the overall market.
Click to expand...

I totally agree with you Dubiousinfo!

The fundamentals of RAU have not changed one iota from yesterday to today. We all knew there was going to be a correction soon. It happened today and RAU was one of a number of stocks (including MHL) where traders moved in to take profits.

I guess if you're a very short term trader then today was a disappointing day. However, for med-long term holders i don't think there is reason to panick at all. We need to keep in mind that this amazing run has been virtually on the back of little or no significant news. We are expecting a raft of drilling results over the next month and if the news is positive the RAU train will continue to march on to greater heights!

Have confidence and don't get caught up in the hype! Thats my view and advice. Good luck to all :D
 
Back on the 7th Nov when I took my profits it looked like an Evening Star might form. It didn't quite form then, but a weak shooting star did and the stock took a breather and I got back onboard. As I said earlier I took profits again yesterday as it looked like a classic Shooting Star forming. Today it did form the third leg of a solid Evening Star pattern, with avengence.

I thought about getting back in late this afternoon, but as the market was taking a bit of a dive and expecting more bad news from the US could hold us back again tomorrow, discretion was the better part of valour.

PS: You make a good point Aussiepaul that no results are in yet and the long term prospects are still good, however it looks like the price needs to cool off for awhile.
 

Attachments

  • New Picture.jpg
    New Picture.jpg
    114.3 KB · Views: 263
Good to see the mods are everywhere and fast under foot. :)

I was wondering what 'that' post was all about :( and next thing it was ... gone. :axt:
 
AussiePaul72 said:
I totally agree with you Dubiousinfo!

The fundamentals of RAU have not changed one iota from yesterday to today. We all knew there was going to be a correction soon. It happened today and RAU was one of a number of stocks (including MHL) where traders moved in to take profits.

I guess if you're a very short term trader then today was a disappointing day. However, for med-long term holders i don't think there is reason to panick at all. We need to keep in mind that this amazing run has been virtually on the back of little or no significant news. We are expecting a raft of drilling results over the next month and if the news is positive the RAU train will continue to march on to greater heights!

Have confidence and don't get caught up in the hype! Thats my view and advice. Good luck to all :D
Click to expand...

..but wouldn't you say the recent run was due to traders in the first place? It would be incorrect to think when the SP went up, it was due to investors, and when it went in reverse it was down to short term traders.


I would like to know more about Mt Carbine. From what I see, should RAU aquire Mt Carbine, they will probably have a massive resource. What I dont understand is the rate of production, and why its not discussed.

I may be wrong on the following, and am happy to be corrected::)

Historically, Carbine produced 1 million MTU over the whole 15 years that it was open.

1,000,000MTU x $250 per MTU(current price) = $250million

Now, if thats the revenue that RAU would earn over 15 years, it is certainly far from impressive, now matter how long the minelife.

So this leads me onto 2 questions:

1. How much Tungsten would be in demand on an annual basis ? (China produces 60K tonnes per annum, Carbine's production was 10K tonnes).

So on these facts, how much demand would there be for a ramped up Mt Carbine, or Whumbal.

and

2. Wouldn't it be better to invest in an Iron DSO company that can dig up and ship Iron within a matter of months. There are plenty out there that can produce 2million tonnes pa for 10 years @ $60pt = $120million revenue per annum, and at half RAU's market cap.

Am I missing something?:confused:
 
Pommiegranite said:
..but wouldn't you say the recent run was due to traders in the first place? It would be incorrect to think when the SP went up, it was due to investors, and when it went in reverse it was down to short term traders.


I would like to know more about Mt Carbine. From what I see, should RAU aquire Mt Carbine, they will probably have a massive resource. What I dont understand is the rate of production, and why its not discussed.

I may be wrong on the following, and am happy to be corrected::)

Historically, Carbine produced 1 million MTU over the whole 15 years that it was open.

1,000,000MTU x $250 per MTU(current price) = $250million

Now, if thats the revenue that RAU would earn over 15 years, it is certainly far from impressive, now matter how long the minelife.

So this leads me onto 2 questions:

1. How much Tungsten would be in demand on an annual basis ? (China produces 60K tonnes per annum, Carbine's production was 10K tonnes).

So on these facts, how much demand would there be for a ramped up Mt Carbine, or Whumbal.

and

2. Wouldn't it be better to invest in an Iron DSO company that can dig up and ship Iron within a matter of months. There are plenty out there that can produce 2million tonnes pa for 10 years @ $60pt = $120million revenue per annum, and at half RAU's market cap.

Am I missing something?:confused:
Click to expand...

U have not missed a thing and made a very perceptive comment. Tungsten mines do NOT carry massive valuations, nor do they produce massive volumes of metal due to grade distribution of tunsten. At 2-3 cents RAU was IMHO a massive buy AND at current levels a major sell. This may change if they make a major strike on one of their other properties where they are drilling for gold and copper BUT they are already very richly valued on their drilling at Whumbal and option to buy Mt Carbine.
 
sydneysider said:
U have not missed a thing and made a very perceptive comment. Tungsten mines do NOT carry massive valuations, nor do they produce massive volumes of metal due to grade distribution of tunsten. At 2-3 cents RAU was IMHO a massive buy AND at current levels a major sell. This may change if they make a major strike on one of their other properties where they are drilling for gold and copper BUT they are already very richly valued on their drilling at Whumbal and option to buy Mt Carbine.
Click to expand...

Sydneysider, what do you mean "at 2-3 cents massive buy and major sell"? Do u mean its good to buy now, and its also good time to sell now?
:confused:
 
sydneysider said:
U have not missed a thing and made a very perceptive comment. Tungsten mines do NOT carry massive valuations, nor do they produce massive volumes of metal due to grade distribution of tunsten. At 2-3 cents RAU was IMHO a massive buy AND at current levels a major sell. This may change if they make a major strike on one of their other properties where they are drilling for gold and copper BUT they are already very richly valued on their drilling at Whumbal and option to buy Mt Carbine.
Click to expand...

Thanks SS,

I'm now out of RAU....again...lol. I've noticed on the other forum that nobody seems to be taking this into account. Its all "Quick...buy..the Chinese are coming..(with briefcases full of cash)":D

Market Cap of RAU is now $150million. I know of many other companies with higher NPVs at 1/4 the market cap.
 
Pommiegranite said:
Thanks SS,

I'm now out of RAU....again...lol. I've noticed on the other forum that nobody seems to be taking this into account. Its all "Quick...buy..the Chinese are coming..(with briefcases full of cash)":D

Market Cap of RAU is now $150million. I know of many other companies with higher NPVs at 1/4 the market cap.
Click to expand...

Care to elaborate on these other companies Pommiegranite?
I jumped out of RAU Wednesday @ 27c and Jumped back in yesterday @ 16c.
 
AussiePaul72 said:
From the drilling update announcement and boardroom radio interview with John Kelly, there is exciting times ahead for RAU.

There are many announcements that will be flowing through Nov & Dec that were outlined in todays announcement:

Northcote Gold Project (75% owned) - Last 6 drillhole results expected 1st/2nd week Nov

Barraga Copper-Gold Project (75% owned) - 3 drillhole results expected 1st/2nd week Nov & other 5 drillhole results expected 3rd/4th week Nov

Mt Carbine Tungsten Project (Option to Purchase) - 8 drillhole assay results expected late Nov

Whumbal West Tungsten Project (100% owned) - 3 drillhole results expected late Nov/early Dec, remaining drilling to be completed next week

Tregoora Gold Project (100% owned) - Drilling will commence next week

Even though it wasn't stated in the drilling update, i would expect the remaining drillhole results for Whumbal West and drilling results for Tregoora to be expected in the period mid Dec through to mid Jan.

So a lot of potentially exciting results to be delivered between now and early in the new year. I topped up with some more earlier today at 0.088. Good luck all and DYOR (but its all laid out in the drilling update today and it was very plain to me the excitement in John Kelly's voice in the boardroom interview) :D
Click to expand...

G'day All ..... another update on RAU
After Thursday's correction from profit takers, IMHO Friday was a strong consolidation day. After closing previously at 0.17, it opened at 0.185 and traded up to close on the intra-day high of 0.215 on good volume of 78 million.
First drilling results expected on Monday from Barraga Copper Project in NSW. This was indicated by John Kelly in the boardroom radio interview last Thursday.
Below is a quote out of the drilling update (2nd Nov) after drilling at the Barraga Copper Project:
"Significant copper mineralisation as chalcopyrite, associated with lead and zinc sulphides, has been reported from the field in a number of drillholes. Chalcopyrite is one of the major economic copper minerals. The presence of intrusive porphyries has also been noted, which supports the interpretation that mineralisation could be related to a larger deeper seated intrusive system. Importantly, previously unknown zones have been intersected away from the historical Lloyds Mine. Analysis results are awaited."
I'm looking forward to seeing whether the drill results on Monday confirm the above potential.....good luck to all holders! :D
 
Top