RAU - Republic Gold

[Whiskers]

Its my opinion that alot of the people that are on this stock are in for the medium term, in regards to so many drilling results due out over the next few months. In my opinion, even if the next drill result was not so spectacular we wouldn't see a major drop because people are there to 'ride it out' through all the drill results. I could be wrong.

Well Automotive, we have two major shareholders on board, Zeus and Citicorp Nominees, who hold something like 20% now. I took my profit in the options and got back in the FPO where stock is moving faster and I can exit quickly if need be.

The valuation is the $64 question, and some people might feel reassured that there are buyers taking a significant holding, but sometimes they are just in it for the investment and if they see the frenzy taking the price to a level where there short term gain is better than what they might expect over a longer term, I have seen them exit just as quickly.

So I am keeping a very close eye on things.

 

[sydneysider]

Well Automotive, we have two major shareholders on board, Zeus and Citicorp Nominees, who hold something like 20% now. I took my profit in the options and got back in the FPO where stock is moving faster and I can exit quickly if need be.

The valuation is the $64 question, and some people might feel reassured that there are buyers taking a significant holding, but sometimes they are just in it for the investment and if they see the frenzy taking the price to a level where there short term gain is better than what they might expect over a longer term, I have seen them exit just as quickly.

So I am keeping a very close eye on things.

I took all of my "core" money off this table to-day. Have traded RAU all the way from 2.5 cents on the shares and 1.5 cents on the oppies. Technically RAU looks very overstretched to me. Some speccy money went into MKY who are next door to RAU in the Palmer River and are getting extrmely hi U grades.

 

[porkpie324]

Technically RAU has been a classic since 12th Oct, a 100% SP rise on heavy volume, then a consolidation phase on low volume, and now another 100% rise on heavy volume. A few more of these and I can have another holiday!!. porkpie

 

[wildmanchris]

I took all of my "core" money off this table to-day. Have traded RAU all the way from 2.5 cents on the shares and 1.5 cents on the oppies. Technically RAU looks very overstretched to me. Some speccy money went into MKY who are next door to RAU in the Palmer River and are getting extrmely hi U grades.

I agree that this share has run pretty hard and is probably due for a breather at some stage as most shares are - but as far as I can see, the company listed early 2005 at 20 cents, and has only just reached the levels at which it listed.

I guess my question is, why did it run down so low - and why is it stretched if it only listed at 20 cents in the first place?

Sorry if this question has an obvious answer that I am missing.

 

[RP_Automotive]

I guess my question is, why did it run down so low - and why is it stretched if it only listed at 20 cents in the first place?

Sorry if this question has an obvious answer that I am missing.

Maybee nobody wanted to put their coin into a stock that had no pending drill results / upcoming news. Now that everything is on the horizon people have jumped on, and many other have sat up and taken notice. At first it would have looked great but people probably got fed up with waiting??

 

[Whiskers]

I agree that this share has run pretty hard and is probably due for a breather at some stage as most shares are - but as far as I can see, the company listed early 2005 at 20 cents, and has only just reached the levels at which it listed.

I guess my question is, why did it run down so low - and why is it stretched if it only listed at 20 cents in the first place?

Sorry if this question has an obvious answer that I am missing.

Hi wildmanchris.

Firstly the company listed in 2004, I think, with about 58m shares. It has been around a bit and had some problems and a huge capital and share increase back in June. See earlier posts.

This chart shows why sydneysider says (and I agree) that it is looking pretty stretched, or over bought and due for some consilidation or a correction.

 

[shaunm]

Hi Whiskers,

What do you mean when you use the term "stretched" and why now is it due for a correction?

 

[explod]

If you can believe the reports coming through it may well be underpriced. But due to past shennannigins by the previous management, investors are wary. The chart would suggest something is afoot but with no announcement one should remain a bit sceptical.

On what has now emerged I see no reason for the teand not to continue. I just wish I had not sold down most of my holding back then at 5cents. Still smiling with what I have left, my addage is usually to follow, 'the trend is your friend untill the bend'.

But I still insist on chickening out. But there is another one that gets in the way, 'any profit is a good profit'

 

[Whiskers]

Hi Whiskers,

What do you mean when you use the term "stretched" and why now is it due for a correction?

Hi shaunm.

Sydneysider started his sentence with the word technically, as opposed to fundamentally, because we have to speculate at this stage about the fundamental values. But technically, we can gauge a number of things, relative to past performance, including buying intensity.

Stockastics and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) give an indication of buying intensity. When the stockastic indicators go over 80% it is generally considered as getting overbought. Conversely when it is under 20% it is considered oversold.

My chart shows a bit different indicator, the RSI as it is more definitive in this case. Similar thing though, getting close to 100%. The price is also getting further outside the Bollinger bands, which is a less precise indicator, but supports that the price is getting overbought.

It could be that after a couple days consilidation it might get going again. When the RSI gets this high it can fall back quite a bit if buying volume and or bidders price fall. It is all going to hinge on what the assay results bring.

 

[AussiePaul72]

WOW .... when will this baby take a rest????
There is definitely a big tug-o-war between fundamental analysis vs technical analysis for die hard investors on RAU, of which i am one of them! After jumping on board at 3.5c and then again at 8.8c when it took a short breather, i am now in a dilemma as to whether to take profits, and if so, when and how much?? One school of thought is that a lot of the increase in SP has factored in positive drill results. However, I really do like the fundamentals and if the drilling results are positive .... well there is no reason why RAU may run again, particularly with the amount of interest in this stock now!
As i keep harping on about in my posts .... hold on guys and strap yourself in if you are willing to take a risk & possibly a wild ride.... as there are lots of drilling results due over the next month (timing & detail outlined in detail in my previous posts) .... first of these due out ANY DAY NOW and highly likely before the end of the week as indicated in RAU's last drilling update announcement.
I'm holding on for the moment .... for better for worse .... will re-assess as some of the big key drilling results are released!

 

[wildmanchris]

Sydneysider started his sentence with the word technically, as opposed to fundamentally, because we have to speculate at this stage about the fundamental values. But technically, we can gauge a number of things, relative to past performance, including buying intensity.

Good point - I think techincal has a place in trading for sure.....

I work for a company where there are WAY too many technical analysts and asked them for their opinion (these are guys that shorted the spi august correction to the hour and value) - they think that its really hard to track a speccie on technical grounds as the things that are driving them are hard to understand sometimes - this to me seems to be fundamentals driving the run.

I mean, with three sets of drill results due this month and the potential buying of a tungsten mine - it might just be time that it woke up!!!!

Having said that - I am no expert and these guys could be wrong. I have made a fair whack in it already and everything points to taking profit, but I just havent mastered the trading psych side yet.......

 

[mick2006]

wow can't believe how far this one has run, although not complaining have been trading in and out from about the 3.3c level, making an absolute killing.

Would be very careful buying in at these levels as has been mentioned by others it is overdue for a break.

I have been switching some funds back into EXM which has the first set of results due from Tennant Creek in two weeks, with some amazing historical gold results this one could be the next one to take off following in the footsteps of RAU and PRE.

 

[imaginator]

wow can't believe how far this one has run, although not complaining have been trading in and out from about the 3.3c level, making an absolute killing.

Would be very careful buying in at these levels as has been mentioned by others it is overdue for a break.

I have been switching some funds back into EXM which has the first set of results due from Tennant Creek in two weeks, with some amazing historical gold results this one could be the next one to take off following in the footsteps of RAU and PRE.

Still no report or announcement yet for RAU. This morning volume already hits 30 million? In Comsec it is entered the 'Most Buy' list in the morning. Why the sudden public confidence in this one?
Price shot to 0.29, not at 11am is 0.255

 

[shaunm]

I have been switching some funds back into EXM which has the first set of results due from Tennant Creek in two weeks, with some amazing historical gold results this one could be the next one to take off following in the footsteps of RAU and PRE.

Hi Mick,

Thanks for the tip.
Yeah this is quite a lot of fun to watch and be part of.

Re EXM, when you say "amazing historical results" are you saying you expect this or it has been announced by the company?

I'm off to do some research.

 

[imaginator]

Hi guys

Is today extraordinary or what? Wow the volume is sky high.

Was there a radio interview or something going on?

Have millions waiting at each price.

 

[rapture2002ca]

Bad start for RAU today, down 5c already.

Well I guess it had to have a correction sometime considering the super run it has had. Lucky I'm in this one for the long term.

 

[Whiskers]

Bad start for RAU today, down 5c already.

Well I guess it had to have a correction sometime considering the super run it has had. Lucky I'm in this one for the long term.

Yes, the correction was expected. But since no assay results are out yet I wouldn't expect it to fall much more. Still looking good for the longet term though.


I took profits yesterday and got over into the KAL camp for a bit. I'm thinking I'll probably get back into the RAU camp later today though.

 

[shaunm]

"Correction" is really such a negative word.
It's just people taking some of their "hard-earned" profits which is OK.:kiffer:

 

[imaginator]

Guys it is at 0.19

ANyone topping up again?

I sold half yesterday at 0.26 luckily. Am holding this other half for already 2x more profit than i paid for.

Hands getting itchy to buy more again.........

Im wondering, everyone was expecting some sort of result, but did RAU said they are gonna release or announce anything soon?

 

[X888]

From the drilling update announcement and boardroom radio interview with John Kelly, there is exciting times ahead for RAU.

There are many announcements that will be flowing through Nov & Dec that were outlined in todays announcement:

Northcote Gold Project (75% owned) - Last 6 drillhole results expected 1st/2nd week Nov

Barraga Copper-Gold Project (75% owned) - 3 drillhole results expected 1st/2nd week Nov & other 5 drillhole results expected 3rd/4th week Nov

Mt Carbine Tungsten Project (Option to Purchase) - 8 drillhole assay results expected late Nov

Whumbal West Tungsten Project (100% owned) - 3 drillhole results expected late Nov/early Dec, remaining drilling to be completed next week

Tregoora Gold Project (100% owned) - Drilling will commence next week

Even though it wasn't stated in the drilling update, i would expect the remaining drillhole results for Whumbal West and drilling results for Tregoora to be expected in the period mid Dec through to mid Jan.

So a lot of potentially exciting results to be delivered between now and early in the new year. I topped up with some more earlier today at 0.088. Good luck all and DYOR (but its all laid out in the drilling update today and it was very plain to me the excitement in John Kelly's voice in the boardroom interview)

imaginator you should do your research