RAU - Republic Gold

[imaginator]

RAU looking like it's going to break up from what might be seen as a pole and pennant. Target generally considered the length of the pole from the break from the pennant. Just depends on your judgement of where the pole starts and finishes and where the break is....

(just probabilities, not certainties)

Hi Kennas, can you please explain what pole and pennant is, and what you mean by "Target generally considered the length of the pole from the break of the pennant".?

 

[sydneysider]

Hi Kennas, can you please explain what pole and pennant is, and what you mean by "Target generally considered the length of the pole from the break of the pennant".?

Technical talk for a major eruption / re-evaluation of the share price. Stocks typically pause in the middle of a run and the weak bulls flee IF there is enough buying power then the stocks climbs above its previous hi..which just happened at 13.5. U can then measure the first run which went from 5 to 12.5 a distance of 7.5 cents. U then add this count to the "break point" at 9 cents, so 7.5 + 9 = 16.5 cents. This break has to come on substantial volume, we are around 43,000,000 at 13.5 so that certainly qualfies. I have printed a copy of a 10 day chart measured at 15 minute intervals where u cann see the very steady hi volume push from below 9 cents. Notice that it has gapped when it took off three days ago, this is a very bullish signal on a run.

 

[Whiskers]

16 cents projection, from 5 to 12 cents (speculatively speaking). Made a substantial placement this morning IMHO getting major support from Asian investors who may also be buying on market. Good luck to all longs

Thats about what I figured too sydneysider, and they are hireing another top class geologist too by the second ann. It seemed the market took a bit of an indifferent attitude to the placement at first as the price dropped back a bit, but since it stated it was to purchase the Mt Carbine project, and with the second ann engaging another geogolist, they started coming around in numbers.

I had a sell order hanging in there for some of my opies at 8.7c, to take a bit of profit, but this morning I frantically had another look at the chart and moved the price up to 10c... then pondered things a bit more jumped it up to 14c. The way things are going that could go in a day or two.

Thanks for the chart and confirmation Kennas. It's always good to have some confirmation in volitile times.

 

[wildmanchris]

Question re the options on RAU - what is the option exercise price and what is the exercise date for the parcels on issue?

 

[Whiskers]

Question re the options on RAU - what is the option exercise price and what is the exercise date for the parcels on issue?

The listed options are RAUO with exercise price of 2.5c by 30 November 2008.

There are a number of unlisted options also. The most recent Appendix 3B will have the option details. Alternatively, the quarterly financial statement will have them at the end of the statement.

 

[windyday]

Hi

I am new for trading. Now the RAUO is trading at 10c/10.5c. What does it mean when the exercise price is 2.5 c at the end of this month for the trading price right now?

Thanks

 

[Sean K]

Hi Kennas, can you please explain what pole and pennant is, and what you mean by "Target generally considered the length of the pole from the break of the pennant".?

For more info go to chartschool. I think this site is pretty good at explaining some of the basics of TA. Follow the links to find more detail. Cheers, kennas

 

[Whiskers]

Hi

I am new for trading. Now the RAUO is trading at 10c/10.5c. What does it mean when the exercise price is 2.5 c at the end of this month for the trading price right now?

Thanks

Hi windyway

The exercise date is next year, November 2008.

All it means is that you have an option to buy (convert to) a full ordinary share with the payment to the company of 2.5c per share. How it generally works is subtract the exercise price from the current share price to work out what the option is worth.

There is a qualification to that. If the exercise price is well into the future and the company assets and or income are solid and expected to grow, sometimes the option + exercise price may be more than the current share price. Conversely, if the assets and or income is not looking good or there is not much time left in the option, the option price + exercise price may be less than the current share price.

It's a bit of a risk, but it can give you more leverage into the company if you buy the options before the company starts to do well. On the other hand if you happen to buy the options and the share price falls below the exercise price by the exercise date they virtually become worthless.

 

[windyday]

Hi Whiskers,

Thanks for your explanation. The company just only said it is going to be good one - but it seems the sp is up so much. What is the real value here for this stock? if the result is good then the sp will be more than 20c ???? Should I wait and see

Cheers

 

[Sean K]

if the result is good then the sp will be more than 20c ????

windyway, please ensure that if you nominate any target that you provide some rationale. Why should the 'good' results end up with more than 20cents? Cheers, kennas

 

[Whiskers]

Well, that was another solid performance on not too much at all. It was a bit of a hairy start just after the ann, when about 20m shares or 1/3 of the days volume traded from 12c on the way down to 8.8c and back again, but finished on a bit of a kick. The question is whether this is indicitive of buyers queing up again in the morning in expectation of more news, or whether they will go away over night.

Hi Whiskers,
What is the real value here for this stock? if the result is good then the sp will be more than 20c ???? Should I wait and see
Cheers

That's the $64 question windayday. If I new the answer I wouldn't be wondering whether I should have sold today or tomorrow or not at all. I will have another look at all the data again tonight and see what transpires first thing in the morning.

That's why they call them speculative stocks. Unlike blue chips that have earnings and dividend records etc that you can use as a barometer, all one can do at this stage of the company development is speculate about what might be.

The best you can do is follow the stock, read all the announcements, get an understanding of the company and the people behind it, do some maths and study some charting etc like kennas and sydneysider outlined above and if you feel comfortable invest, if not don't.

Sometimes you will get some that really do well, most stagger around for a few years before they come good or go bust or get taken over and sometimes just when you think you have a little gem, it turns out to be smoke and mirrors or runs into a heap of troubles and falls in a big heap.

My golden rule is do your research, weigh up the risk and reward to decide how much you are prepared to risk. For example I watch numerous stocks at any one time, sometimes for months before I decide to buy, and sometimes I hold for a year waiting for them to come good (or not).

 

[windyday]

Hi Whiskers,

Thanks for your input. I will take your input to think and learn seriously.

Hi kennas,
This is the first time I have stock that jumps more than 30% in a few hours. For 20 cents, I just guess - no reason.
Other stocks I have - moving up and down by less than 5%. This is new experience and I hope this is a good one too.

Cheers

it is really nice to have forum so, we can get someone to talk to...
God saves this forum then...

 

[Sean K]

RAU looking like it's going to break up from what might be seen as a pole and pennant. Target generally considered the length of the pole from the break from the pennant. Just depends on your judgement of where the pole starts and finishes and where the break is....

(just probabilities, not certainties)

I hate it when I see these things and don't commit.

Hope you other guys are enjoying the break...

 

[imaginator]

Hey I see a cross at the top.

Is that a sell trigger?

Today the price was 0.16, then its 0.14 now.

Anyone see it may go 0.2 or retrace back to a support?

 

[Whiskers]

I hate it when I see these things and don't commit.

Hope you other guys are enjoying the break...

So far so good kennas.

But it's testing times controlling the impulses and trying to rationalise out the best way to go. Last kick I traded the cycle and got away with it nicely. Not sure if I will try it again cos I'm thinking maybe it will not settle back this time with so much news expected.

The other side of the coin is as you would know, sometimes good initial soil samples turn out to be precious little when it is drilled, but although the MD is pumping out the news, and despite my bit of a loss of confidence in the company when the Luzon deal went sour, my gut feeling so far is pretty good.

I still worry a bit about the degree of Aisian investors and whether they are working of similar values to me or more inflated 'Chinese' style valuations.

 

[Whiskers]

Well, I decided to cash in and take my profit again. I reckon the XAO is trending down on the weekly chart and I was feeling nervous about the Dow.

By early afternoon it was becoming apparent that volume was falling off and the most likely candle formation was somewhere between a symmetrical Doji and a Hanging Man. If the market fell off a bit as I was expecting it was probably going to be the second leg of an Evening Star. All things considered it looked like it had hit a top for now so if I took my profit again, as I figured there was a better than even chance that it would come back a little.

 

[Superfly]

First post for this newbie....

Just wanted to send my thanks to Sydneysider on this stock... bought in large for me, under 3.4c months ago. Holding my breath on this one... been following ASF for about a year, and it really helps get an insight for the likes of myself.
Wow....waiting on these upcoming drill results & Mt Carbine...

Sawasdee to all...

 

[razsta]

Hey,

Im a uni student who has always been intrested in the stock market but did not have the knowlege and more importantly the capital to get started until Jan this year. I took a look several sub 5c companies. Cheap to play around with. RAU looked the most attractive and recently has turned out to be a great start to this game.

Thanks to RAU and its activity this year like its renouncable share offer back around April/MAy or so and reading what you guys have had to say objectively as possible. I have learnt so much in the last 6 months. But I am still trying to learn as much as I can and want to ask a question related to recent oil prices.

Does a high oil price effect gold? If so how will it fair with Republic? Or will there be no relation whatsoever? Or may it effect the market generaly in turn having an effect on RAU?

I am in no rush with this company and since this is not my living yet. I think this one might be a good one to hold on for a while.

Cheers

From a cautiously optimistic first time investor

 

[Sean K]

Does a high oil price effect gold? If so how will it fair with Republic? Or will there be no relation whatsoever? Or may it effect the market generaly in turn having an effect on RAU?

Higher POO increases inflation causing interest rates to rise. POG appreciates as gold is bought as a hedge against inflation. All things being equal, gold shares should also eventually go up with rising POG. However, not all shares are equal...

 

[imaginator]

Looks like RAU is going up even today. Support of 0.14?

It is 0.155 now on a red ASX day. Good stuff.

Does anyone know are there anymore reports coming out soon?