qldfrog weekly Skate inspired system

[qldfrog]

system1 performed 2 buy actions this morning:
ZIM 482@10.9 for a total of $5263.8
FNP 923@ 5.79 for a total of $5354.17
we are now 78% invested

System2 more dynamic had 1 buy/sell as we have reached our max nb of position:
sold 40000 AGY @ 0.08resulting in a loss of $1580 outch
and bought
83 DMP @$44.9 for a total of $ 3736.7
here we reached another problem separating us from a backtest scenario;
I could only buy DMP after selling AGY..so could not do both at the open, I had to be present at 10:15 to manually enter the buy order: in that case, it was positive as I bought DMP below the open price but can not expect this to be always in my favour
have all a great week

 

[qldfrog]

horrendous week:
lost 15k or so on gold usd exposure, SEA collapse, bonds etc
And for the systems:
###########################
System I (the original)
LOSS of $2280 this week

WTF?
Start 25/02/2019
Total invested $ 100,000.00
Cash remaining $16,363.44
Current portfolio value $105,680.24
Profit $5,680.24
Nb of active positions 17
Nb max position 20
Return since 25/02 5.68%
Annual return so far 10.47%
purchase value per position 5486.696667
Invested percentage 84%
dividends $ 433.81
Average per week: 202.8657143

We are going opposite the XAOA which was going higher
not a nice chart

2 trades planned on Monday
###########################
system II
static just $125 loss this week

Start 5/08/2019
Total invested $ 100,532.76
Cash remaining $10.91
Current portfolio value $98,066.59
Profit -$2,484.91
Nb of active positions 20
Nb max position 20
Return since 5/08 -2.45%
Annual return so far -23.56%




We are still losing to the XAOA on that time frame

More very heavy actions on Monday
Have all a great week end

 

[qldfrog]

A few thoughts
Neither system use stop losses
But system 2 has a more dynamic behaviour and exit for example some gold stocks on monday that remains with system1
The reason i have no stop loss in either is that backtests during several periods show they were more of a negative than a positive
I just hope there was no mess up with the tests.
@peter2 exited some of the stocks causing the fall this week.and as a human , i would have done the same
Yet with oil situation, gold might rise again...
I still want to point out that, due to personal reasons.. first open house of ppor,... this was one of the busiest week i have ever had,
and a system allowed me to carry on stock trading whereas otherwise i would have been unable to practise rational clear thinking trading or investing.so no regret

 

[jjbinks]

Sorry to hear about the losses! One of the things about trading. Hopefully you are going OK!

and a system allowed me to carry on stock trading whereas otherwise i would have been unable to practise rational clear thinking trading or investing.so no regret

These really highlights one of the big benefits of a system (esp if it is weekly or monthly).

It's also interesting to note that for system 1 you have gone from about 50% invested at start of august(after about 5 months of trading) to know being 84% invested. (investing 30% of portfolio in 1 month).
Its been a volatile few weeks so no surprises that you taking some losses. Hopefully with time we'll see winners your system picks shine!

 

[qldfrog]

No win if no risk, so i am ok
Most of the losses last week were following huge gain this year.part of life

 

[qldfrog]

@jjbinks thanks for the nice words.kind of you, but no worries i am quite ok
Hope you are going well too
Did you jump paper to real dollars?

 

[Newt]

Yep, another turbulent week. I was just breaking new equity highs Mon, finished in a 6% DD by the end of the week. Happy to keep churning as required - can't be setting new highs all the time, and sideways better than down.

 

[qldfrog]

today system 2 swapped 2 parcel: 2 sells 2 buys
And system1 added 2 parcels;
ALK : 9016 @ 0.595
and MSB 2522 @ 2.17
we now have 19 out of 20 available packets invested

 

[qldfrog]

good week:
###########################
System I (the original)
gain of $2340 this week

Start 25/02/2019
Total invested $ 100,000.00
Cash remaining $5,506.18
Current portfolio value $108,017.67
Profit $8,017.67
Nb of active positions 19
Nb max position 20
Return since 25/02 8.02%
Annual return so far 14.28%
purchase value per position 5602.83
Invested percentage 95%
dividends $515.77
still loosing to index, catching up on getting fully invested

2 sells 3 buys on monday
###########################
system II
gain $727
Start 5/08/2019
Total invested $ 100,532.76
Cash remaining $6.69
Current portfolio value $98,793.80
Profit -$1,467.39
Nb of active positions 20
Nb max position 20
Return since 5/08 -1.73%
Annual return so far -14.03%
purchase value per position #DIV/0!
Invested percentage 100%
dividends $ 97.21
Average per week: -293.4774
does not seem to be able to catch up with index, fully invested




We are still losing to the XAOA on that time frame
no action on monday, plenty of buy signals but fully invested and no sell
Have all a great week end

 

[jjbinks]

@jjbinks
Did you jump paper to real dollars?

Got into trading a asx system. (loosely based on all time highs/tech trader)
Largely tracking along with the XAO. Back testing suggested that this was not going to have the greatest returns but seemed to be robust in terms of having decent return with DD<30%.
Its been a good learning experience more than anything else. Have some ideas to improve the system but need to find the time to do things properly.

 

[qldfrog]

Thanks for the status on your system @jjbinks
today, no change in system2 which is fully invested but for system1, we sold 2 goldies:
AQG:sold 1176 @5.85 for a profit of $ 1,861.60
AGG:sold 1070 @5.91 for a profit of $ 1,435.20

bought 1527 IMF @ 3.69 for a total of $5644.63
bought 298 BKW @ 18 for a total of $5374
bought 427 BAL @ 12.87 for a total of $5505.49
once again BAl is under takeover so should I buy it or not...backtest do not check and my system was tested on backtest, BUT shares of companies under takeover usually diseappear so may not be taken into account in my backtest..anyway, there was only 3 buys so I could store money there for a week but not a very pleasant thoughts
I pondered a lot before sending the order..

 

[qldfrog]

result of the week:
for the systems:
###########################
System I (the original)
LOSS of $141 this week

Start 25/02/2019
Total invested $ 100,000.00
Cash remaining $2,165.36
Current portfolio value $107,876.44
Profit $7,876.44
Nb of active position20
Nb max position 20
Return since 25/02 7.88%
Annual return so far 13.56%
purchase value per position 2447.72
Invested percentage 97%
dividends $ 619.52


No trades planned on Monday
###########################
system II
gain $ 1,840.22 this week

Start 5/08/2019
Total invested $ 100,532.76
Cash remaining $6.69
Current portfolio value $100,634.02
Profit $82.52
Nb of active positions 20
Nb max position 20
Return since 5/08 0.10%
Annual return so far 0.71%
Invested percentage 99%
dividends $ 236.61
Average per week: 16.5036
We are back in black after a disastrous start during the august fall




We are still losing to the XAOA on that time frame but results are improving

More actions on Monday 2 buy and 2 sells
Have all a great week end

 

[qldfrog]

For anyone interested
Neither of my 2 systems use stop loss but i am a believer in stop loss, so yesterday, i went and tried again to put stop loss triggers in my formula and backtest these
Well this is monte carlo tested and i tried on several past periods
Crash, uptrend etc
I have very marginal only slightly improved results with a trailing stop set at 47%
And it sometimes even return worse results
I have trouble to believe this but such are the figures
There is a psychological advantage if i say to myself, i have a stop loss so i sleep better
But that's about it
Anyone with similar experience where SL are useless in their system?

 

[Newt]

Its really hard qldfrog, and SLs do often curb profits. I found some value in the concept of "consider selling when your entry criteria are reversed". Thinking this through allowed me to develop a compromise of trailing stops versus "would I enter here now if I had never held this stock?".
Whatever conditions you're using for entries, perhaps review and see if there is some useful way you could flip them for trailing stops at a distance you're happy with from current price action.

Skate has some clever double trail stops on not dis-similar principles if you read back through stuff he's shared.

 

[rnr]

For anyone interested
Neither of my 2 systems use stop loss

Hi qldfrog,

So your only exit strategies are your Initial Stop and Take Profit?

Cheers,
Rob

 

[qldfrog]

No, no
There is no stop loss but there are exit conditions, stale, change of trends etc
But none are applied intra day, they just point to
- exit on monday open as part of my weekly system
So if disaster happens, i am exposed naked until next monday when the damage or most of the damage is done

 

[Newt]

That could be an advantage too, that you DON'T have stops in the market all the time, so won't get taken out by wild daily moves in the market - get to stand back and look at the bigger weekly picture?

 

[peter2]

Just want to confirm that stop losses do reduce the profits in all trend following systems. The only reason to use them is to reduce the draw downs to a comfortable level. This comfortable feeling has a cost and that is reduced profits.

The best stop loss is a very tight initial stop loss but this is very hard to trade as the W% is only 10-20%. The AW/AL is HUGE and there is much more work to do as so many trades are stopped out quickly and need to be re-entered.

 

[qldfrog]

That is exactly what the figures on my backtests show indeed

 

[qldfrog]

This is the time again:
OK week especially considering the indexes:
###########################
System I (the original)
win of $368 this week

Start 25/02/2019
Total invested $ 100,000.00
Cash remaining $2,166.18
Current portfolio value $108,245.27
Profit $8,245.27
Nb of active positions 20
Nb max position 20
Return since 25/02 8.25%
Annual return so far 13.74%
purchase value per position N/A
Invested percentage 97%
dividends $ 865.08
Average per week: 294.4739286
Catching up on the XAOA , nearly there with initially far less exposure but now fully invested

no trade planned on Monday
###########################
system II
small loss of $245 this week

Start 5/08/2019
Total invested $ 100,532.76

Cash remaining $31.00
Current portfolio value $100,388.49
Profit -$163.06
Nb of active positions 20
Nb max position 20
Return since 5/08 -0.14%
Annual return so far -0.89%
purchase value per position N/A
Invested percentage 99%
dividends $ 133.77
Average per week: -32.6114




We are overtaking the XAOA on that time frame

No action on Monday
Have all a great week end