qldfrog weekly Skate inspired system

[qldfrog]

shaky week" but not a bad result with a $330 gain
And we got a weekly gain
Start 25/02/2019
Total invested $ 100,000.00
Cash remaining $49,455.28
Current portfolio value $105,878.15
Profit $5,878.15
Nb of active positions 10
Nb max position 20
Return since 25/02 5.88%
Annual return so far 13.67%
purchase value per position 4979.244
Invested percentage 53%

a lot of action on Monday: 6 buy/sell planned.
Have all a great week end

 

[willoneau]

Really what I was getting at when I asked about backtest results was that how it fits in with monitoring of your live trading results. As a trader you must have some kind of evaluating your own performance and my question is what do you use as your benchmark. As you mentioned different systems can take more or less time depending on market conditions to become profitable. (Not sure what you mean by 100% profitable as opposed to say 50% profitable). If you back test over periods which cover different parts of the market cycle this should give you an idea. I feel 3 years is a long time to wait to find out if your system truly works or not!

I guess, ultimately that leaves you with trying to find a system which becomes profitable within an acceptable time frame for you. For me that would be somewhere between 6-12 months! But it is easier said than done.

HI jjbinks, just another thought I remembered was that usually at the start of your system weather testing or live most of your closing trades will be losses because you will be accumulating and holding the winners for longer periods and getting rid of those losers quickly.

 

[qldfrog]

True, i am just starting selling winners after 6 months

 

[willoneau]

Hi qldfrog, keep it up mate, I just did some back testing with my system from your start date until start of month(12month period). I found my daily system not very impressive compared to previous year with a return of 10%, my weekly is nearly 21% return mind you single backtest. I also use AXO but my buy price limit is $1
If i go back to 1/8/2017 a period of two years my return jumps up to an amazing 63% return.
Keep following it , i also thought you were using weekly system?

 

[qldfrog]

Yes , i am on a weekly system

Hi qldfrog, keep it up mate, I just did some back testing with my system from your start date until start of month(12month period). I found my daily system not very impressive compared to previous year with a return of 10%, my weekly is nearly 21% return mind you single backtest. I also use AXO but my buy price limit is $1
If i go back to 1/8/2017 a period of two years my return jumps up to an amazing 63% return.
Keep following it , i also thought you were using weekly system?

Thanks for the info, putting the final touch on a System Ii

 

[qldfrog]

OK
System II finalised and will start on Monday
$100k
20 positions max
5k per position initially
very good results on backtests, more dynamic
8 purchases planned Monday for that system

I will add the systemII results to my weekly reports
I start SystemII 6 months after System I so a good starting date
Planning to run both in parallel till Christmas and may consider to merge both together if a version is distinctively more performing

 

[qldfrog]

System1: the original system saw a lot of tradings today:
sell
DXS for a profit of 61.4
EPW for a loss of -261.11
JIN for a good profit of 3046.75..I will miss JIN
and we bought today
RBL 3496 @ 1.4 for a cost of $ 4904.4
RMS 4405 @1.135 for a cost of $5009.675
WLL 715 @ 6.79 for a cost of $4864.85

System 2:
we start : initial capital 100532.76
8 purchase trades for a cost of $39204
and a loss at the end of the day of 967 dollars :-(
bad choice for a start day!!!!

 

[willoneau]

After following tech/a a bit i would have had conditional order just above that large expantion bar say 1.47/1.48 (RBL).
What is with WLL jumping from 5.25 to 6.71?

 

[peter2]

You may like to read about the takeover offer for WLL. The huge gap up on the daily chart is a clear indication that an offer has been made. Weekly charts may not show the gap and weekly systems don't read the ASX announcements.

 

[willoneau]

thanx peter2 , my system doesn't read them either.

 

[qldfrog]

After following tech/a a bit i would have had conditional order just above that large expantion bar say 1.47/1.48 (RBL).
What is with WLL jumping from 5.25 to 6.71?

Then it would not be systematic and i can trust myself to be influenced by my mood or the market falling 2pc.
Or thinking i know the takeover will be rejected or..
Or being always too early
I failed for years that way so the beauty of systems

 

[qldfrog]

Note:
When designing this system, o also tried to remove shares which did jump too quickly
Take over or results announcements, overall and on the different periods i tested, end results were lower and i scrapped that filter off

 

[willoneau]

I find with my system there are times those large expansion bars are the triggers but price then falls away, i usually might give up a few cents by not getting in on open but on weekly system not too important i think . i don't scrap them just put conditional order just above high instead of open.
I am waiting on three at moment in daily system , MMI-INR-SEN , if they hit my stop before closing above i just remove from my watch list and remove conditional order too.

 

[qldfrog]

I understand and see the point but then you trade an hybrid system
So you must behave and be able to control yourself better than i can ,

 

[willoneau]

Wouldn't say control myself better, went and had a look at my results over the last year and tried to improve my results. I found that if i had placed conditional orders just above the high of the trigger instead of open as per system i was able to scratch 5 or 6 not sure , trades. I didn't go and calculate the difference between the other trades entry on open and what they would have been just above the high but i think by scratching those i was in front. Test it and see what you find? if you enter on open on Monday (weekly system).

 

[qldfrog]

Thanks @willoneau, I will go into these refinements when I get more experienced, but until I can code these checks in AB, I prefer sticking to the basic rules with a backtest comparison for my system as i go along.
I do not contest your check will avoid many doomed entries..
Thanks nevertheless for raising that issue..I really am using a crude system but sometimes the KISS rule is the best for novices like me.
I am just wondering today if I did not start system @ at the trigger of the down slide....anyway, have to start sometimes

 

[willoneau]

i'm no programmer , just manually went through was about 40 odd trades in the year i think

 

[qldfrog]

Not a bad result this week:
###########################
System I (the original)
with a $1525 gain this week

Start 25/02/2019
Total invested $ 100,000.00
Cash remaining $52,350.81
Current portfolio value $107,403.77
Profit $7,403.77
Nb of active positions 10
Nb max position 20
Return since 25/02 7.40%
Annual return so far 16.48%
purchase value per position 5268.797
Invested percentage 51%

we are catching up on XAOA
No action on Monday
###########################
system II
not toooo bad considering our start date!!!!!

Start 5/08/2019
Total invested $ 100,532.76
Cash remaining $61,328.29
Current portfolio value $100,134.31
Profit -$398.45
Nb of active positions 8
Nb max position 20
Return since 5/08 -0.40%
Annual return so far -36.17%
purchase value per position 5110.690833
Invested percentage 39%
We beat the XAOA on that time frame
Some action on Monday
Have all a great week end

Report Bookmark

 

[qldfrog]

I just noticed a difference between backtest and real on System 2, I will investigate..teething issue...

 

[jjbinks]

Nice to see you bucking the trend.

Was going to update my us flipper diary because I've got a busy weekend but then realised us market will be trading till tomorrow morning haha!
But when I was doing my update at this week has interestingly been the best week for the flipper system up 3% as of close of trade thursday us time compared to russel 3000 which is flat.
US market had strong bounce overnight with didn't follow through for in the all ords today.

A daily system which I was testing (buys new highs essentially) and have been tracking was up ~4% this week. I was suprised as Monday the system was down by 4% and sold 3 positions. The new positions were found pretty quickly (gold miners - my system also picked up RMS which has had a great week!!) and biomed compay OPT which have had a ripper week.

Your results and mine seem to suggest that there is profit to be made in volatility. Just a matter of how to make the most of it!