qldfrog weekly Skate inspired system

[qldfrog]

Hum, well we are back to the normal behaviour from November
Not very pleased with that
systems positive this morning, -$1.8k or -1.3 % at the close...not good...during that time the xao went from 7490 to 7540
No trade today...
should I trade my portfolio as the 2X Inverse XAO?
and a quick look at my paper trading system; would be down 1k or 3% from paper invested funds

 

[qldfrog]

interesting week,
more interesting?
-> how tonight will go on the NYSE..could be a no event trading night but i have the feeling any big move would be an indicator of what is going to happen this month;
Had more losses on the discretionary -$4k or so

As a reference, the XNT fell -0.5% during the week
for the systems:
not too bad:
daily:
attempt on small cap volatility hit back -$300 or -2%
volatility ASX:all cash..unsure where to go no change
volatility US:all in, but flat +$25
DL Guppy still 100% cash, unchanged

The weekly:
Mt Skate platinum:-$200 or -0.4% fair
QFBO new version: ramped invested from 32% to 61%
loss of $50 or -0.1%
QFSector new version: ramped invested from 21% to 54%
gain of $450 or 0.6%

QFDuc new version: -$900 or -1.1% for what was left of the old trades;
should be offloaded by monday
I did not sell the trades which were still taken by the new version..probably a mistake
For the paper traded part :9 virtual positions (11/13 invested);
not good
we have a loss of -$1.4k +900=-$2.3k or 3%
We will not go live on monday...

For the week and in real money (well kind of, AUD) : -$1k or -0.3%
systems are currently 66% cash

 

[Sean K]

systems are currently 66% cash

Do you have a strategy to deploy the cash when the crash comes?

 

[qldfrog]

Do you have a strategy to deploy the cash when the crash comes?

Just following systems here
for these, they should move in again based on both market indicators and specific share moves.
That would remove the human side which is not my strong point.

 

[Sean K]

Just following systems here

No discretionary ability to add a zero to the order after a 50% crash? That cash needs to be deployed at some stage doesn't it?

 

[qldfrog]

No discretionary ability to add a zero to the order after a 50% crash? That cash needs to be deployed at some stage doesn't it?

Not in the systems.
300k there to play and risk.
Obviously if my systems are all go, i will feel more confident with bumping my discretionary with any leftover cash around

 

[peter2]

Do you have a strategy to deploy the cash when the crash comes?

No discretionary ability to add a zero to the order after a 50% crash? That cash needs to be deployed at some stage doesn't it?

WTH! There's going to be a crash? Does everyone know about this other than myself? When's it going to start?

 

[qldfrog]

Small morning post:
Was expecting a wonderfull night for my US portfolio..and what ? -$2k...
But relief
Initial fright over i have 4k aud dividend coming this week..slight heartrate jump..
These do not appear in my charts

 

[qldfrog]

Another heavy loss week, not so much in the systems it seems but on the discretionary
Depressing it is to see loss after loss
When today saw the first whole portfolio increase since the 18/11 nearly a month of losses day in day out
Not always system based, but when the market and systems go up, the NYSE or conservative part falls more , and reverse
That is probably my longest losing streak ever...
We did had our mini crash hinted at last week and then the market recovered:
systems entered the short positions too late, exited them too late as well, add silver down down down and bleeding numbers are the results;
The good thing is that I am using proper data and systems seems to behave within expectations
As a reference, the XNT was up 1.55% during the week
for the systems:
daily:
attempt on small cap volatility.no change no play no win no loss 0%
volatility ASX:fully invested -$.1k -0.3%
volatility US:all in, but heavy loss -$1.1k -6.2%
DL Guppy started trading and now fully invested -$0.7k or -1.75%

The weekly:
Mt Skate platinum:20% invested -$0.2k or -0.4%
QFBO new version: 91% invested +$1.1k or +2.3%
QFSector new version: 74% invested -$1.1k or -1.7%


QFDuc new version: -$0.3 or -0.35%

For the paper traded part :9 virtual positions (10/13 invested);
gainedb1.1k
but not comfortable with signal given as we seem to have some buy signal from last week disappearing?
We will not go live on monday either and will fully liquidate

For the week and in real money: -$1.7k or -0.5%
systems are currently 38% cash

 

[qldfrog]

was hopefully the week would mark a turning point after the last 4 weeks hammering from all sides for my overall portfolio
But that was to happen with thousands going in smoke from this morning to close tonight
the XNT fell 0.67% this week:
for the Frog:
daily systems:
attempt on small cap volatility.flat +$60 or 0.4% just one play this week
volatility ASX:fully invested -$0.7k -1.4%
volatility US:all in, but loss -$0.1k -0.7%
DL Guppy fully invested +$0.1k or+0.4%

The weekly:
Mt Skate platinum:0% invested and flat
QFBO new version: 90% invested -$1.2k or -2.6% disappointed
QFSector new version: 83% invested -$1.1k or -1.7%


QFDuc updated paper version: -$0.6 or -0.8%
Still not feeling ready to start with current market conditions and limited advantages


For the week and in real money: -$3k or -0.9%
systems are currently 38% cash

Overall lost 4k after a good session today where I gained 5.1k overall
just to tell you how bad it was yesterday
FFX SPP cost me dearly as I was invested in 3 packets in 3 different systems >1k loss just for that ticker
Have all a great weekend.
some interesting findings last night which will be leveraged from next week






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[Sean K]

For the week and in real money: -$3k or -0.9%
systems are currently 38% cash

Overall lost 4k after a good session today where I gained 5.1k overall
just to tell you how bad it was yesterday

Yesterday was ugly for most of us I think. On the sum of it you seem to be doing better than the market. Do you measure against he XAO?

 

[qldfrog]

Yesterday was ugly for most of us I think. On the sum of it you seem to be doing better than the market. Do you measure against he XAO?

I measure against the XNT for my system , and results were atrocious in the last 4 weeks or so;
the worst 4 weeks I have had
[ both systems and the other investments]
Overall it is hard to find a reference.

I use currencies, US and local market discretionary exposure, PM, bonds and used to have a bit of cryptos..minimal now;
Then you add crazy real estate here in QLD so how is a week going?
What matters is that I am as wealthy at the end of the year as at the beginning considering inflation and this based on a world wide criteria;
I do not really care making 25% on the ASX if the AUD falls 50% against the international basket.
I am not aware of an easy to access reference..maybe there is a need for that universal index of returns
By default USD is used but I have a feeling this has a limited life

 

[KevinBB]

Interesting post, @qldfrog - interesting enough to get me thinking a bit. Not good late on a Friday night.

It is my opinion that any investment returns should be measured in the "home" currency. It doesn't really matter what that currency is, it is up to you, I, or any other investor, to make that decision. For me, AUD is convenient. Everything else from wealth to taxes to my weekly grocery shop is measured this way, so AUD it is.

Your decision to use XNT as your benchmark is a good one, many investors would just use an index like XJO and beat their chest because dividends have helped them beat a benchmark. If you wanted to use a world index, MSCI have a few of them, but I still think that measurement in the home currency is more appropriate.

Once you know your measurement basis, then the rest is easy. Convert everything to the home currency on a regular basis, again, its up to the investor to decide whether day, week, month or year is appropriate.

I do not really care making 25% on the ASX if the AUD falls 50% against the international basket.

I don't think this is a measurement problem, or a cause to look for a different benchmark for measurement of investment returns. Making a perceived loss because investments are in AUD instead of USD is just like, for example, investing in WBC instead of CBA, it is just a poor investment decision (kicking myself).

What would you do if you find yourself holding WBC over the long term instead of CBA? Or holding investments in AUD instead of USD? The answer is to change the investment mix, not to look for a different system of measurement.

Hope this helps.
KH

 

[qldfrog]

Probably too late for a proper answer, but basically, that's what i do practically.after all, that is what the ato does before sending the bill
correction that's what i pay my accountant to do so that the ato sends the bill.

 

[qldfrog]

But it is not ideal so you can have a bumper day on the market and then the USD falls and once you sum the lot om AUD..another day in red
That definitively influenced my investment mix with a lot of PM exposure on top of USD EURO and even Rubles and Yuan to try to reach a currency agnostic level.
But I am still fooling myself by only looking at RE valuation yearly or half yerly.
Note I actually remove the PPOR valuation from the total Which it should not as the average or high Aussie RE is usually overpriced ny world standard (or even in Oz vs renting option)
But if anyone has a currency agnostic, location agnostic measure of wealth, I am interested.
That is an interesting subject , prone to a lot of manipulation
And the Hamburger index is not that great as in china f.e., you do not eat hamburgers that commonly..I know that starbucks coffees there was actually dearer thanin Oz in AUD ;-)

 

[qldfrog]

An interesting eoy award article.
To lighten the mood?
https://www.smartcompany.com.au/bus...utm_content=smartco_daily&utm_term=2021-12-22

 

[Sean K]

An interesting eoy award article.
To lighten the mood?
https://www.smartcompany.com.au/bus...utm_content=smartco_daily&utm_term=2021-12-22

 

[qldfrog]

A merry Christmas to the people following my pathetic attempts at system trading, and a very warm one for @Joe Blow for allowing that wonderful site to exist;I hope you benefit from my mistakes and errors.
With only a few exceptions quickly sorted with an ignore push, the site is a wealth of different but tolerant thinking, of highest quality and populated by exceptional individual..compare this with FB for example
So Thanks all, even in differences, you help build knowledge.
Enjoy a well deserved rest and share love and happiness in a time where even our leaders seems to want to split us
Will get back to the EOW results in the next post

 

[qldfrog]

This week:
for whatever reason, between Gold PM and USD fluctuation Monday and Tuesday saw $11k go in smoke but Santa came back and smoothed the hit, with decent positive days from Wednesday
Still lost $7.4k on the week overall;
But what we are interested here is the systems:
XNT went up 1.6% which is substantial
we were nowhere near that and lost money

daily systems:
attempt on small cap volatility.flat no play this week
volatility ASX:fully invested -$0.3k or -.6%
volatility US:fully cash +$0.3k or +1.9%
DL Guppy over invested with a sell on a stock in trading halt
fully invested -$1.5k or -3.9%

The weekly:
Mt Skate platinum:0% invested and flat
QFBO new version: 90% invested +0.6 or +1.2%
QFSector new version: 81% invested -$0.9k or -1.3%


QFDuc updated paper version: -$1k or -0.8%
Not good so still pure paper play, note that this week purchase with the latest version are mostly positive whereas last week are ALL in red...


For the week and in real money: -$1.8k or -0.53%
systems are currently 42% cash

 

[qldfrog]

A bit of a dilemma this week; I am more and more convince we will have the major crash this quarter..talking 60% fall...
I am obviously VERY BAD with my crystal ball, but the last time I had such a feeling and resisted changing my systems.it costed me 40k or more from memory with the covid crash;
Morever I expect a small 10% correction then a sudden surge before that collapse so room for a bit of profit making i think.
I checked again my backtests etc..fair behaviour during crash.
I so edged the asx via put option for some of my system exposure and have decided the following;
Systems will proceed as normal:
daily volatility ASX and NYSE ;
no play with small cap volatility too exposed to sudden changes
DL Guppy as usual;
I carry on with my 3 weekly systems: Mr Skate Platinum trial on limited assets and my QFBO and QFsector; QFDuc stays off line and i will only revisit this next year;
I will instead add a daily (for reactiveness) BO system to try to capture some of the expected rebond; here as well on 1/2 std capital (50k)
So on monday I will start that DLQFBO
Let's see how we go Have all a great xmas NY break