PSD - Psivida Limited

[motorway]

This has the potential to break out today as it has been operating very tightly and today has jumped up by 1.5c.

That bar caught My attention

some attempted Wyckoff Analysis ( No claim to being an expert here )


test response test response ..behavior ---> change of behaviour

supply overcoming demand.. Upthrusts ....Ease of movement down


...demand starts meeting supply volume off the bottom----> ending action

Demand did take visible control... A Sign of strength

A test of the low ... confirming action at the last point of support

A valid buy point for early birds ( is PSD of a type of stock that We should be early ? )

Last bar I think ( marked b ) should be contrasted with The upthrust bar ( marked a )

How has the demand supply interaction changed ?
range of bar .. Volume associated.. close ? context with neighbour bars ?
position in the trend... The character of the trend ( true trend.. low to lows highs to highs etc )

Upward slopping blue line is a reverse use of trend line
warranted by the Volume in the ending action

Angle at this stage is tentative...

But all diagonal lines on time scaled charts are tentative
When compared to horizontal lines ( support resistance half way points )

Downward slopping green bar is a valid shorter time frame supply line
Drawn from two commensurate points of action..


Subsequent action is Now key
last Bar had good volume
what will be the response

Any strength now would be a green flag..

test response , test response......

Identifying the character of the action...

look at the weekly look at the p&f ( for a different way of measuring the length of action in a trading range )

Recent low defines a valid area that would signify the break down of a
a bullish market definition ( But watch out for springs )

Volume = attention
PSD has some attention What is the effect of that attention
Will that attention gather a following.. Who then takes advantage of the volume generated ? contrast the next large range bars with bars a and b

esp near the upper trend line

Some start at analysis

I tend to be an early bird

motorway

 

[Lucky_Country]

Certainly got some attention today
Onwards and upwards I hope

 

[BraceFace]

Another share price spike for no apparent reason.
Unless there is a positive annoucement in the near future, the SP will pull back to previous levels for sure. I give in 2 weeks and it will be back to low 20's, where it has been for yonks.This is exactly what happened last time (see earlier posts)
Nice spike for the day traders out there, not so good for those who bought this company's stock a year or so ago when it was over a buck.

these biotechs are not for the fainthearted.
Fickle.

 

[motorway]

Another share price spike for no apparent reason.
Unless there is a positive annoucement in the near future, the SP will pull back to previous levels for sure. I give in 2 weeks and it will be back to low 20's, where it has been for yonks.This is exactly what happened last time (see earlier posts)
Nice spike for the day traders out there, not so good for those who bought this company's stock a year or so ago when it was over a buck.

these biotechs are not for the fainthearted.
Fickle.

There is intent behind every movement in the price

This Sign OF Strength ( nice range good close just right volume )

IS nothing like the earlier spikes

Where it went up to go down, Were opportunities for supply, for selling.
Supply was seen to overcome demand at those junctures.

This if you looked at the chart above comes from nice preperation from the
19 jan. I would designate that area as accumulation..

The lines drawn on the chart above Show price coming to a hinge ( all those evocative words... apex, dead centre , spring board )

This bar is a clear sign of strength

even a jump across resistance .. ( creek )

Probabilities are positive

initial upside implications target .36+

For those taking their urging from the chart

Raising stops to break even is always a sound consideration now..
As is looking for valid pyramid opportunities

Anyone who bought at a $1 and still holds is not interested in the urging of this or any other chart..

There is nothing in recent time that has such clarity as today's action in context..

motorway

 

[BraceFace]

There is intent behind every movement in the price

This Sign OF Strength ( nice range good close just right volume )

IS nothing like the earlier spikes

Where it went up to go down, Were opportunities for supply, for selling.
Supply was seen to overcome demand at those junctures.

This if you looked at the chart above comes from nice preperation from the
19 jan. I would designate that area as accumulation..

The lines drawn on the chart above Show price coming to a hinge ( all those evocative words... apex, dead centre , spring board )

This bar is a clear sign of strength

even a jump across resistance .. ( creek )

Probabilities are positive

initial upside implications target .36+

For those taking their urging from the chart

Raising stops to break even is always a sound consideration now..
As is looking for valid pyramid opportunities

Anyone who bought at a $1 and still holds is not interested in the urging of this or any other chart..

There is nothing in recent time that has such clarity as today's action in context..

motorway

Yadda Yadda yadda.
I'm afraid I'm a little lowbrow to truly understand your postings Motorway.

Mate, you can do your analyses, you can draw the lines on the chart as you please, you ramble your technobabble, it doesn't change a thing....
SP dropped back 9% today.
It is now under your resistance line - surprise, surprise.
Just like before

If this cracks 36c+ as you claim in the next few weeks, I'll eat my shorts.

 

[motorway]

Yadda Yadda yadda.
I'm afraid I'm a little lowbrow to truly understand your postings Motorway.

Mate, you can do your analyses, you can draw the lines on the chart as you please, you ramble your technobabble, it doesn't change a thing....
SP dropped back 9% today.
It is now under your resistance line - surprise, surprise.
Just like before

If this cracks 36c+ as you claim in the next few weeks, I'll eat my shorts.

Well forums are about sharing not just taking
(And am not talking about you... )


When should We Buy... When it is going down?
Or when We detect real accumulation?

.36 gives Me a possible reward based on the same average step up.
I can then use that as part of the judgement as to IF I should risk money
and how much...

It is a target not a prediction ... Like an archery target.. I have some idea what the arrow is being fired at.. No guarantee that it will hit it
A TARGET NOT PREDICTION.


Here is My comment today:

Test and Response

Jumps and Backups

It jumped How high on how much volume And took how much time..

Compared to the Backup that is now happening..

Where was the ease of movement
Where is the ease of movement

We have had ending action.. We have has Signs of strength in the trading range.
We have had a Jump.

On tip toe it is hard to jump further.

That is why the breakout is so high risk.

So the stock backs up...

It did it's jump in one day.. On good price volume relationships
It is backing up over two days atm the greater ease of movement was on the jump

Taken a lot of effort (volume) to backup

HOWEVER The JUMP might be totally negated With further weakness

That would then put Us back in the trading range.. And more preperation

Prices move in WAVES .. As long as there is a following... VOLUME = following

Where does the selling lose its following?
Where does demand emerge?

We should look in the vicinity of the half way points
around .245 even .23 Would be OK..

JUMPS and BACKUPS
TESTS and RESPONSES

look for the LOW risk entries..

Those who are looking to buy or are holding
are still being early here

A successful backup now would be a very good entry point
(IMO)


DYOR

motorway

 

[BraceFace]

Back down to 23.5c at end of weeks trading.
No surprises there.

Once again back in between motorway's tram lines.

 

[motorway]

Back down to 23.5c at end of weeks trading.
No surprises there.

Once again back in between motorway's tram lines.

Certainly not one to have the farm on .. As I said Very early..

Lot of shares changing hands.
So in an important way it is not exactly back where it was.
and it isn't in any case..

Different hands .. different purpose, different intentions.

Some wanting In are In..
Some wanting out are out..

Subsequent action
is what is important

motorway

 

[constable]

Back down to 23.5c at end of weeks trading.
No surprises there.

Once again back in between motorway's tram lines.

After todays volume im not so sure, it may well finish in the thirtys ...
10million units and counting!

 

[motorway]

Yadda Yadda yadda.
I'm afraid I'm a little lowbrow to truly understand your postings Motorway.

Mate, you can do your analyses, you can draw the lines on the chart as you please, you ramble your technobabble, it doesn't change a thing....
SP dropped back 9% today.
It is now under your resistance line - surprise, surprise.
Just like before

If this cracks 36c+ as you claim in the next few weeks, I'll eat my shorts.

Well What can I say ?

Only that You do get to have an interesting meal in the next few weeks :

A point on resistance, resistance does decay the further away it is.
Compare this BAR to the Upthrust BAR

There has been a lot of buying Below today's finish..

BUT ,,, A trend is a higher high and a HIGHER LOW..

So We need to be in step with that reality and to take advantage of it..
And not be manipulated by it..


motorway

 

[nomore4s]

Did anyone read the answers to the speeding ticket, especially Q3?
It might be a reason for the increased volume.

"pSivida is aware of rising trading volume in the Company's securities on NASDAQ (PSDV), Frankfurt (PSI) and the ASX (PSD) in line with increasing interest in the outcome of negotiations currently being conducted with a major global pharmaceutical company. pSivida believes that this is a result of the important annoucement on 27 December 2006 in relation to the Company entering into a 3 month exclusive licensing negotiation period with a major global pharmaceutical company to acquire a worldwide, royalty bearing license to make, use and sell products using pSivida's drug delivery technologies. The 3 month exclusivity period of this agreement has now expired and the Company is continuing in these negotiations which are at an advanced stage."

Any comments/thoughts?

P.S I don't hold

 

[motorway]

Did anyone read the answers to the speeding ticket, especially Q3?
It might be a reason for the increased volume.

"pSivida is aware of rising trading volume in the Company's securities on NASDAQ (PSDV), Frankfurt (PSI) and the ASX (PSD) in line with increasing interest in the outcome of negotiations currently being conducted with a major global pharmaceutical company. pSivida believes that this is a result of the important annoucement on 27 December 2006 in relation to the Company entering into a 3 month exclusive licensing negotiation period with a major global pharmaceutical company to acquire a worldwide, royalty bearing license to make, use and sell products using pSivida's drug delivery technologies. The 3 month exclusivity period of this agreement has now expired and the Company is continuing in these negotiations which are at an advanced stage."

Any comments/thoughts?

P.S I don't hold

The part of the announcement I liked was the part

Stating that the announcement in Dec was NOW being more fully considered by investors.

Now what does this mean ?

What is clear is mkt reaction in Dec compared to more recently.

Is The suggestion there, that investors are now getting it right ?
After all IF you give something more consideration a more full consideration
are You not going to come up with a better and more accurate appreciation ?

News is always News
It was news in Dec ..

But the effect of News reveals something.
For one thing it reveals the technical position
something about who is holding..
And something about the line of least resistance..

What it reveals about the meaning of the News itself is more suggestive
But probably as real an indication as anything else..

DYOR... Only opinions
Mkts are about The transfer of risk under the cover of ( possible ) reward.
Make sure that reward is real and adequate.
Because the risk is always a given..



motorway

 

[BraceFace]

Well What can I say ?

Only that You do get to have an interesting meal in the next few weeks :

motorway

OK let's no get ahead of ourselves here....
After Thursday's speculation, the SP still ended the week at 27c.
Not even close to 36 c yet.
My shorts drawer is still safe until PSD actually make an announcement, not just answer an ASX speeding ticket.
:blbl:

 

[constable]

OK let's no get ahead of ourselves here....
After Thursday's speculation, the SP still ended the week at 27c.
Not even close to 36 c yet.
My shorts drawer is still safe until PSD actually make an announcement, not just answer an ASX speeding ticket.
:blbl:

Hope youve washed those shorts and cutting them up into bite size pieces!
Ann. due tomorow it would seem as suggested by the trading halt.
Really tho only god knows at this stage what it will mean price wise. Got caught trading these overnite so i will be eagerly waiting.

 

[constable]

Look its a pre-open seesaw!!

 

[constable]

Look its a pre-open seesaw!!

Little joke to myself really! First ann today was regarding finance restructuring (not that exciting ) and of course the high market expectations didnt like it but wait there's more ....1 hour later 2nd ann, 203mill deal with pfizer which i think will make the market very happeee.

 

[constable]

Little joke to myself really! First ann today was regarding finance restructuring (not that exciting ) and of course the high market expectations didnt like it but wait there's more ....1 hour later 2nd ann, 203mill deal with pfizer which i think will make the market very happeee.

Missed the open ......they dont give you much warning! out at 31c, machograssyarse love!

 

[BraceFace]

Uninspiring announcement...
Uninspiring response.....
High volumes but closed at it's opening price. 28.5c
...Shorts still safe.

I'm tipping this will retreat back to previous levels (low 20's)
I hope I'm wrong.

 

[constable]

Uninspiring announcement...
Uninspiring response.....
High volumes but closed at it's opening price. 28.5c
...Shorts still safe.

I'm tipping this will retreat back to previous levels (low 20's)
I hope I'm wrong.

yep i think you can put the scissors away!

 

[BraceFace]

yep i think you can put the scissors away!

LOL :
Gotta love it when you pick it right!!
maybe PSD will grow some legs on the back of more positive news.

At this stage - it's a dud.

I irks me to say that, because I still hold. (not for much longer methinks)