PPS Trading System by Curtis Arnold

[MRC & Co]

Some fantastic stuff there Nick!

The point that grabbed me, was the part Wayne highlighted.

Its a pattern that has defined right/wrong boundaries - exactly what you need in order to manage the trade! Thus, you know where to place your stop (know when your wrong), and if your right, let profits run. Then the exit becomes the important part. Does Arnold talk about exits in the book?

Well I will read it for myself when I get around to it.

 

[sleepy]

Then the exit becomes the important part. Does Arnold talk about exits in the book?

Yes there is a chapter on Exits and in it he also discusses TWO rules that will allow you to move your stop to break-even, thus reducing your risk to zero.

Only 7 pages long but invaluable in my opinion.

Place the trade.
Manage the outcome.

As Nick keeps reminding us its all about 'focusing on the losing trades', as the winning trades take care of themselves.

sleepy

 

[MRC & Co]

Yes there is a chapter on Exits and in it he also discusses TWO rules that will allow you to move your stop to break-even, thus reducing your risk to zero.

Only 7 pages long but invaluable in my opinion.

Thx sleepy. I'm sure 7 pages include well and truly enough technicals on exits.

Cheers

Oh and good questions IFocus.

 

[Boggo]

Take a look at PPX.

1. What do you see?
2. What is the trend?
3. How do you know that is the trend?

#3 is not a loaded question. Just tell me exactly what you see when you first look at the chart.

My worth on PPX @ Sunday 13/04/08.
(The US on Friday night may have an overriding influence on all of this)

1. Possible completion of wave 4
2. Trend is up
3. Close on 13/03 was above downtrend wave 4 high of 04/02/08

Pivot high on 08/04 = $2.95
Pivot low on 26/03 = $2.07
Diff is = $0.88

0.88 * 0.618 = $0.54
0.88 * 1.000 = $0.88

Most recent low 10/04/08 = $2.62
Initial target ($2.62 + $0.54) = $3.16.
Wave 5 target ($2.62 + $0.88) = $3.50.

Summary...
Go long at $2.81 with a stop at $2.61
or
be patient and go long at $2.96.


Mike

 

[MRC & Co]

Anybody know where to get the book from?

I ordered Adaptive Analysis from the ASF bookshop, but could not find PPS anywhere. Amazon is all sold out and don't know if they are going to get in any new stock of the book!

 

[sleepy]

I bought mine 2nd hand/used off amazon

http://www.amazon.com/gp/offer-list...olp_1?ie=UTF8&s=gateway&qid=1208361830&sr=8-1
http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/offer-li...olp_1?ie=UTF8&s=gateway&qid=1208361830&sr=8-1

sleepy

 

[MRC & Co]

I bought mine 2nd hand/used off amazon

http://www.amazon.com/gp/offer-list...olp_1?ie=UTF8&s=gateway&qid=1208361830&sr=8-1
http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/offer-li...olp_1?ie=UTF8&s=gateway&qid=1208361830&sr=8-1

sleepy

Sweet, wonder why it told me all were sold out before.........

Ah well, cheers mate.

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Snake,
Arnold got into some trouble by the authorities for false advertising. I think he was banned from the industry and therefore suggest the publisher would deem a republish as a waste of time. The book is well worth the read regardless of his dubious dealing. If you want a real laugh, get the video.

Thanks for that info Nick.

 

[Nick Radge]

Here is one straight out of the PPS textbook:

I took my leave late today:

 

[Mike Trader]

I am probably way to late with this post but as far as I can remember Curtis Arnolds system is right 50% of the time and it only works that consistantly on commodities-not on indexes or stocks-if my memory serves me correctly( read it about 8 years ago)

 

[Nick Radge]

I'd suggest it works at about the 41% - 43% rate and it works perfectly well on any market and in any time frame.

 

[Mike Trader]

I'm sure your right Nick,I have never researched it in depth.

 

[Barndat]

I bought mine 2nd hand/used off amazon

http://www.amazon.com/gp/offer-list...olp_1?ie=UTF8&s=gateway&qid=1208361830&sr=8-1
http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/offer-li...olp_1?ie=UTF8&s=gateway&qid=1208361830&sr=8-1

sleepy

Sleepy can I ask, did u get the Disk that's included when u bought the book from Amazon..??
I bought the last second-hand copy available to Australia but it came without the disk. I was wondering what the disk was, instructional or the PPS program or what..??

Thanks..

 

[bunyip]

I've owned the PPS book for more than 10 years and I'd rate it a very good book.
Curtis Arnold's core pattern is the symmetrical triangle. These are good patterns to trade and are very profitable when traded in the direction of the trend.

The limitations of symmetrical triangles are.......
1... They don't occur all that often in each stock (although you get quite a few if you follow enough stocks)
2... They're difficult to scan for....a distinct disadvantage if you're trying to find them among a large number of stocks.
3....They mostly occur after the trend has been under way for some time. Usually there are various other patterns that would have given you a far more timely entry than the symmetrical triangle.

In the PBG chart, for example, long before the triangle showed up there were various other patterns that would have put you into the downtrend and had you harvesting good dollars on the short side. This does not in any way detract from the validity of the triangle as an entry signal when it eventually showed up.

Another good pattern outlined by Curtis is double tops and double bottoms. What's interesting is that he uses them as trend continuation patterns, not trend reversal patterns.
We've all seen someone give examples of a double top calling the end of an uptrend, and giving a signal to go short once price falls below the trough between the two tops.
And we seen examples of double bottoms calling the end of a downtrend, and giving a signal to go long once price climbs above the peak between the two bottoms.

Curtis did extensive testing that showed double tops/bottoms to be unreliable when used in this manner. Instead, he looks for double bottoms that occur during uptrends, and double tops that occur during downtrends.

Example......
A stock or market is uptrending, then starts selling off....a counter-trend retracement. After a few days the selloff ends and the uptrend resumes, creating a trough within the uptrend.
Several days or maybe a week or two later, another selloff. This second retracement goes to the same or very similar level as the first retracement, then the uptrend resumes.
Now you have a double bottom within an uptrend.....a valid buy signal.

The mirror image of this pattern is a double top occuring during a downtrend. A downtrending stock or market rallies temporarily before resuming it's downtrend. A bit further down the track, along comes another temporary rallies that ends at the same or similar level as the first rally. Now you have a double top within a downtrend...a valid short entry signal.

I've found this pattern to be fairly rare, but when it shows up I'll trade it without hesitation, due to it's reliability.

 

[Barndat]

Bunyip, Thanks for the info. I still don't know about the disk that is suppose to comes with the book. Did you receive it and if so what does it contain..??

Thanks

 

[bingk6]

Bunyip, Thanks for the info. I still don't know about the disk that is suppose to comes with the book. Did you receive it and if so what does it contain..??

Thanks

Barndat,

I also got a copy of the book from amazon, cost me a small fortune, and it did not come with the disk

 

[bunyip]

Bunyip, Thanks for the info. I still don't know about the disk that is suppose to comes with the book. Did you receive it and if so what does it contain..??

Thanks

I got the disc but for some reason I could never open it . Presumably it just gives examples of the PPS software in action.

 

[Nick Radge]

The book was the precursor to his PPS software so the disk was an example of how that worked. It was an old ugly program (probably good for those days). I doubt computers these days could run that type of disk anymore anyway.

This was the program that led to his eventual downfall because of the false claims he made during its marketing.

I had the triangle patterns as per his book coded into TradeStation for me back in 1999 or so.

 

[Barndat]

Thanks for that info Nick, I won't lie in bed wondering what I may have missed out on by not getting the disk with the book now.
Cheers..

 

[sleepy]

I did get a disk ... but never looked at what was on it as it was on a Floppy disc which my laptop cant read.

sleepy