"POLITICS"

[2020hindsight]

well noi, I'm just pointing out - what's the point of saying how well she is polling (in some future primary) when she needs a flaming miracle.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_(United_States)_presidential_primaries,_2008

I reckon you can get that champagne ready to put on ice doris

 

[wayneL]

well noi, I'm just pointing out - what's the point of saying how well she is polling (in some future primary) when she needs a flaming miracle.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_(United_States)_presidential_primaries,_2008

Oh brother! Straw man!

Where does Noirua state how well she is polling by stating raw figures without comment?

Your comments are starting to look a tad trollish.

 

[noirua]

Final results as follows: ( some early polls pointed to a better performance by Hillary Clinton, but her support stumbled in Indiana and crumbled in North Carolina, and she needs an Obama disaster to win)

99% of votes now in: Indiana - Clinton 51% - Obama 49%
Voting so far in North Carolina: Obama 56% - Clinton 42%

May 13th in West Virginia is next.

 

[Doris]

well noi, I'm just pointing out - what's the point of saying how well she is polling (in some future primary) when she needs a flaming miracle.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_(United_States)_presidential_primaries,_2008

I reckon you can get that champagne ready to put on ice doris

The first Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the Oregon Democratic Presidential Primary shows Barack Obama enjoying a twelve-point lead over Hillary Clinton. It’s Obama 51%, Clinton 39%.

Clinton has a statistically insignificant lead among senior citizens while Obama leads among younger voters. Obama does best among upper income voters while Clinton’s strongest support comes from those who earn less than $40,000 annually.

Obama is viewed favorably by 78% of the state’s Likely Primary Voters, Clinton by 71%. Fifty percent (50%) of Obama voters have a favorable opinion of Clinton while 56% of Clinton voters hold a positive view of Obama.

Eighty-two percent (82%) say that if Clinton is the nominee, they will vote for her over John McCain in the fall. An identical number, 82%, say they will vote for Obama over McCain.
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_...ial_election/oregon/oregon_democratic_primary

West Virginia on May 13. That’s a competition Hillary Clinton will be looking forward to with eager anticipation. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the race shows that Clinton attracts 56% of the Likely Democratic Primary Voters while Obama is supported by 27%. Seventeen percent (17%) are not sure.
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_...west_virginia_democratic_presidential_primary

On May 20, voters in Kentucky will have their say in the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination. The first Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of that race shows Hillary Clinton leading Barack Obama by twenty-five percentage points, 56% to 31%.

Seventy-eight percent (78%) of the state’s Likely Primary Voters say they’re likely to vote for Clinton over McCain in the general election. Just 55% are likely to vote for Obama over McCain.

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_...election/kentucky/kentucky_democratic_primary

The only polls that counts will be in one week for WV and two weeks for Kentucky and Oregon.

Obama is 155 delegates ahead so he can afford to lose a couple of votes in Kentucky... but once he's there campaigning he will put them under his spell... I mean, they will see his strengths and change their minds!

But it looks like Kentucky and Oregon favour both Democrats over the GOP and as I see it the only problem the supers will have in seating for Obama is a confidence that people will vote for him against McCain!

 

[2020hindsight]

Oh brother! Straw man!

Where does Noirua state how well she is polling by stating raw figures without comment?

Your comments are starting to look a tad trollish.

well I would have thought (in this post from the Barack thread) that noi was displaying a certain wild speculation - which hasn't eventuated -
frankly I'm waiting to see someone say "oops" here - no biggie

If the Democratic vote was under Republican rules then Hillary Clinton would already be the Democratic nominee.
Much now depends on the voting in Indiana where Hillary Clinton just has to win. Latest polls showed her position was improving, and she had levelled and could be a few points ahead going into the polls.
North Carolina polls showed Barack Obama is still well in the lead but the 11% lead of a few weeks ago had come down to 8% last week. IF the movement continues Clinton could go into the vote just 5% behind with the gap narrowing.
My feelings are that Hillary Clinton will win Indiana by about 3 -5% and sneak North Carolina by a narrow margin.

Meanwhile here's todays news in NY :-
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/08/u...bl&ex=1210305600&en=ce371a86470524ce&ei=5087

"Hil needs a miracle"

snap.

 

[wayneL]

well I would have thought (in this post from the Barack thread) that noi was displaying a certain wild speculation - which hasn't eventuated -
frankly I'm waiting to see someone say "oops" here - no biggie

An opinion, or even moral support for a particular candidate and wild speculation are two different concepts.

I suggest you learn to discern between the two before posting further on the topic, and point out that you have indulged in this to a far greater extent than the poster in question.

Your double standards are appalling.

 

[2020hindsight]

CBS seems to have been quick to call Clinton's victories early. (Indiana)
Meanwhile senior Clinton official says "We lost this thing in February"

CSI: Clinton Campaign ~Olbermann

 

[noirua]

Longest and shortest odds to be President of the United States, main candidates:
Obama 5/6 - 3/5
McCain 6/4 - 11/8
Clinton 10/1 - 13/2
Root 150/1 - 100/1
Nader 250/1 - 100/1

 

[Aussiejeff]

Longest and shortest odds to be President of the United States, main candidates:
Obama 5/6 - 3/5
McCain 6/4 - 11/8
Clinton 10/1 - 13/2
Root 150/1 - 100/1
Nader 250/1 - 100/1

"Aaah! McCain, you've done it again!"

Oh, sorry mate, .. wrong Ad campaign!

LOL


AJ

 

[2020hindsight]

http://www.easyodds.com/compareodds/specials/Politics/m/115075-234-3.html
Herewith the odds for vicepresident - assuming Democrat
US Presidential Election - Democrat Vice President Candidate

Interesting that Hillary is favourite (3/1)
long shot Bill Clinton - (100/1)

thought for the day
maybe the 3am phonecalls could be diverted to Bill

PS Will Obama choose a) experience, or b) a woman (to compensate for those who will be pining over Hillary's demise

I'm guessing experience.

 

[noirua]

It's all on West Virginia and Hillary Clinton needs at least 65% of the vote.
There are a number of small parties battling away and Barack Obama may not make more than 25% of the vote. These small parties, and McCain supporters voting for Hillary, could make for a nasty shock for the Obama camp.

"The Mountain Party": http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mountain_Party

 

[2020hindsight]

Here's Roy Zimmerman's opinion of the Democrat's superdelegate system - the ones who can change their mind etc.

"Superdelegate" by Roy Zimmerman

 

[noirua]

Suffolk University Polling on 10th and 11th May for the West Virginia Primary: Hillary Clinton 60%, Barack Obama 24%, undecided 8%, 2% non-respondent, 2% undecided, 4% Edwards who remains on ballot: http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/200...est-virginia-obama-clinton-may10to11-2008.pdf

 

[noirua]

West Virginia primary voting closes shortly and exit poll results due in about 15 minutes or so. Hillary Clinton needs a massive win in this caucus and Barack Obama must be hoping to cut back her 36% exit poll lead.

 

[noirua]

West Virginia, the Mountain State, voting with 3% of the votes in: Hillary Clinton 58%, Barack Obama 36%

Updating regularly

There are only 28 delegates up for grabs. Only 3% of the electorate is Black or Hispanic. Important State in that it was 1916 since a Democrat was voted President without winning West Virginia.

 

[noirua]

West Virginia, the Mountain State, voting with 28% of the votes in: Hillary Clinton 62%, Barack Obama 31%

There are only 28 delegates up for grabs. Only 3% of the electorate is Black or Hispanic. Important State in that it was 1916 since a Democrat was voted President without winning West Virginia.

Hillary Clinton is making her election victory speech in Charlston, Virginia.

 

[noirua]

With 34% of the votes in for the West Virginia caucus: Hillary Clinton 64%, Barack Obama 29%, John Edwards, still on the ballot 7%.

 

[noirua]

51% of the votes are in for the Democratic West Virginia caucus: Hillary Clinton 65%, Barack Obama 28%, John Edwards (still on ballot) 7%.

 

[2020hindsight]

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/05/13/politics/main4094471.shtml?source=mostpop_story

20 to Hillary, 8 to Obama = 12 gain , but since NC and Indiana, Obama has gained 27 superdelegates

Even as Clinton rolled up large vote totals, she made precious little gain in the race for delegates. In the week since winning North Carolina and narrowly losing Indiana, Obama picked up the support of 27 superdelegates - nearly as many as the 28 pledged delegates at stake in West Virginia. So, despite a big win, Clinton isn’t making any headway on her delegate deficit.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_(United_States)_presidential_primaries,_2008

PS the odds aren't wavering much ...

http://www.easyodds.com/compareodds/specials/Politics/m/51363-234-3.html

Obama 7/10 = $1.70 (in from $1.83 on the weekend)
MCain 7/4 = $2.75 (out from $2.50)
Hillary 8/1 = $9.00 (in from $11.00)

Obama and Hillary both tighter, McCain gone out a bit

 

[noirua]

Final Result from West Virginia: Hillary Clinton 67%, Barack Obama 26%, John Edwards (still on ballot paper) 7%.

This caucus hardly matters in delegate terms but the victory by Clinton was at the top end of expectations. There are legal challenges, concerning States that were disallowed from the contest, and Hillary needs to bring the contest close enough that, were they allowed by a court, she could win on the delegate final calculation.
A long way to go yet but Clinton debts at $20 million will rise to $25 million and husband bill is backing all of it. He'll be handing round the hat shortly.