PAV Technical Analysis and Trades

[pavilion103]

I actually closed them out a support level on the 4 hour chart.

I may regret it but I’m happy to cash in $2,400.

Almost $3,000 profit locked in this evening so I’ll rest content!

I just didn’t have the nerves to hold it!

 

[barney]

I’ve never really had a strategy to trade around news.

None of my back tests take news or daily events into account, so, it follows that my trading should not take these into account either.

I'm certainly no expert on trading Futures even though I still dabble (it could be a disease I think, lol! )

Anyway, I remember "Trembling Hand" speaking of the potential of being "swept" away (price wise), at certain times of the year,

I know for sure, if you trade Forex, and don't "respect" the NEWS, you will be crucified, unless you have a bank the size of Bill Gates nephew!

And for the record, I don't like Bill Gates, lol!

Basically, respect and "be aware" of the NEWS! Particularly if you intend trading any substantial "size"

 

[barney]

I don't need to maximize every move. In fact, trying to do so will probably cost me dearly.

A wise summation methinks Pav!

Well done on the "win"

 

[barney]

I just didn’t have the nerves to hold it!

If the nerves kick in, close at least 1/3 or maybe 1/2 of the position in my experience.

The "nerves" are a reflection of your "experience"

Trust your nerves ... at least to some degree!

 

[pavilion103]

Isn’t it funny… I hold those US positions and I get nervous about the open profit. I sell those positions and I get nervous that the market will crash and I’ll regret exiting them ?

If there’s one lesson that’s hit me since I’ve been back trading it’s that a bird in the hand is better than two in the woods.

I’m much more relaxed entering my setups on open and taking my 30-50 point profits and going to bed content!
Add size to that with more contracts and there’s no need to chase bigger moves for more profit.

 

[KevinBB]

The "nerves" are a reflection of your "experience"

I’m much more relaxed entering my setups on open and taking my 30-50 point profits and going to bed content!

I've been auto trading for the past year. Actually, the one year anniversary is today! (happy birthday to me!)

Auto trading has taken all decisions out of my hands, but I still get nervous about the positions I hold. So, risk management is very important for my trading. I apply a 5% maximum risk to account size, no exceptions.

There was one, and only one, occasion where I became so nervous that I took matters into my own hands and closed almost all positions, and that happened late February 2022 after up days of 2.7%, 1.8% and 3.8%, all well above the 2 standard deviation level. One of the worst decisions I've made because after a while prices kept going in my favour. Live and learn.

KH

 

[pavilion103]

I've been auto trading for the past year. Actually, the one year anniversary is today! (happy birthday to me!)

Auto trading has taken all decisions out of my hands, but I still get nervous about the positions I hold. So, risk management is very important for my trading. I apply a 5% maximum risk to account size, no exceptions.

There was one, and only one, occasion where I became so nervous that I took matters into my own hands and closed almost all positions, and that happened late February 2022 after up days of 2.7%, 1.8% and 3.8%, all well above the 2 standard deviation level. One of the worst decisions I've made because after a while prices kept going in my favour. Live and learn.

KH

Ouch… tough lesson!

Having rules (where possible) makes it so much easier. When we learn to trust our rules it makes it even easier!

I lost 12 points on a bad trade on the ASX200 this morning.

I then got in a good one. My profit target was around 35 points. I got up 20 and then chased it in because of the previous loss. Of course sit comfortably reached the profit target.
Just a small example of emotions getting in the way of rules!

 

[pavilion103]

I got a great long on the FTSE this evening.
Entry 7090, stop 7077.
I put stop to BE after it moved up and I went to dinner.
I had an alert set at 7139.
Price only reached 7135 on a high volume, wide bar, and then fell.
So annoying!
Lost all those points.
Should have had an alert a bit lower (maybe a max 35 points away next time, 49 was a bit much even though I predicted where it would peak fairly well).

So many 30-50 point moves this week.
Feeling good.
I'm planning to go from 10 to 15 contracts next week.
If I trade well then go to 20 the following week.
Then sit there for a while!

 

[tech/a]

Price only reached 7135 on a high volume, wide bar, and then fell.

You saw it albeit in hindsite
hard the trade longer term with short term timeframes.

I have always found the FTSE difficult and stopped trading it .
I find the DAX easier and more conforming to analysis.

I think the Germans are more compartmentalised in their thinking!?

 

[pavilion103]

You saw it albeit in hindsite
hard the trade longer term with short term timeframes.

I have always found the FTSE difficult and stopped trading it .
I find the DAX easier and more conforming to analysis.

I think the Germans are more compartmentalised in their thinking!?

That particular trade was actually an intra day trade. I was out at dinner. I should have set an alert that wasn’t as far away given that I wasn’t able to watch the screen. When I’m at the screen, as soon as that type of volume comes in I am out of the trade!

I have added the DAX to my watch list.
I have looked at a few charts and it does seem like it moves quicker. Although the initial risk is more points.

I think I’m going to leave the Aussie market alone and give myself the day to do other activities. Then I can load up the FTSE and DAX in the evenings.

Only need two good trades in a week. I’m trying to get into that mindset. It makes things far more simple!

 

[tech/a]

Yes similar
if it (DAX) doesn’t set up and trade well in the first few
hours I’m looking at it. I walk away. Don’t force a trade or guess one.

As you say only need a couple of good ones and the occasional great trade.
Im a little different to you in that if a trade doesn’t move immediately in my direction
then I’m out I won’t wait for a stop to be taken out I’ll wait for a new set up. Sometimes
those setups just don’t play out or show themselves.

futures are great to trade with volatility—- in out — long/short with a click

 

[pavilion103]

Yes similar
if it (DAX) doesn’t set up and trade well in the first few
hours I’m looking at it. I walk away. Don’t force a trade or guess one.

As you say only need a couple of good ones and the occasional great trade.
Im a little different to you in that if a trade doesn’t move immediately in my direction
then I’m out I won’t wait for a stop to be taken out I’ll wait for a new set up. Sometimes
those setups just don’t play out or show themselves.

futures are great to trade with volatility—- in out — long/short with a click

I do agree that most of the best trades move immediately.
I have also found though that if I have my stop above and upthrust for a short, or below a spring for a long, it often holds.

The thing is that is it triggers my entry and then pulls back down a bit, if I were to exit then I’ve lost half my initial risk, and quite often price might play around for a few bars before moving in my favour. In those instances I feel the risk to reward is better for me to remain in the trade if I’m confident of the direction.

I have thought about this a bit and have ended up being burnt at times when I’ve got out of a trade and then back in and then out and back in. I’d rather just leave it!

 

[pavilion103]

Last night's trade on FTSE

 

[pavilion103]

My frustration was compounded here...

 

[pavilion103]

Plenty of frustration and missed dollars, but no loss, which is what matters most.
THIS is why risk management is #1!

 

[Modest]

Hi Pav glad you're doing better mate. I remember way back when I first started out trading I scoured ASF and read all your and Trembling Hands posts, I was like a info sponge back then.

I like the thread and will be following along!

 

[pavilion103]

Hi Pav glad you're doing better mate. I remember way back when I first started out trading I scoured ASF and read all your and Trembling Hands posts, I was like a info sponge back then.

I like the thread and will be following along!

Hope you enjoy the thread!
Glad my posts helped at the start of your journey!! ?

 

[barney]

The moral of the story Pav. When trading Futures, don't eat, and don't go to the dunny!

 

[pavilion103]

FTSE trade.
Price broken above the resistance on 4h chart.
Some consolidation happening just above my BE stop.
I was hoping it wouldn't pull back so close to my stop and put me at risk but ah well.
Some room above for the FTSE to move. So I traded this as a potential continuation.

 

[pavilion103]

Stopped at BE.

I was awake for the S&P500 and NASDAQ.
Took a trade on each to the short side.
Stop to BE.
Woke up with markets heavily down but my BE stop taken out ??