PAV Technical Analysis and Trades

[pavilion103]

2 trades today.
I took one on the ASX200 for $120 profit.
1 took another on the FTSE100 for $650 profit.

I'm looking to trade the first 1.5 hour or so now.
Usually I identify a trade within 30-45 mins.

 

[pavilion103]

I feel that this has a way to go still to the downside and to be honest I just couldn't hold my nerve after giving back so much in the past week.

There was a bit of a support/resistance on the 4 hour chart around 6170ish.
But my profit target originally was 6100. I had planned to set a limit order there for profit take.

So the most I've left on the table is 70 points.

I don't think it was a great trading decision to exit the trade where I did BUT a 65 point move (5R profit) is always a good night at the office!

 

[pavilion103]

Taking a look at the chart there really is a zone between 7100ish-7140ish where it could be reasonable to exit for profit.
Unless one was holding with the push of price smashing through this area then that's the exit zone.
I probably should have held an extra 30 points at least. And usually I would.

But I think 7140 would have been my preferred exit over 7100.
Consistently taking good profit is much better in the long run than trying to maximize every move.
That said, my exit was definitely too early.

 

[pavilion103]

Price found temporary support in that support zone that I identified above.
Before I was about to turn my phone off, I saw that price was setting up at this level for a potential long.
Initial risk 13 points.
This is a classic failed retest of the low.

Stop now to B/E so no stress.
I will probably have to let this run overnight because it's getting late.
Worst case scenario is breakeven so I'll sleep well!

 

[pavilion103]

Stopped at B/E

 

[pavilion103]

Two attempts on FTSE.
I'm not hiding my messy first attempt

 

[tech/a]

Nice entry Pav
like the B/E stop
makes the trade no stress
youll get a really good one soon enough!

 

[pavilion103]

Nice entry Pav
like the B/E stop
makes the trade no stress
youll get a really good one soon enough!

Taken out at B/E.
Brutal!

 

[tech/a]

Pav
How long is your timeframe on a 3 min chart?

I think a 15/30 min maybe better have you looked at that?
Have a look at the Dax
I found FTSE difficult and choppy
Dax is more consistent i need only get on a good
hour for a good return.

 

[pavilion103]

Pav
How long is your timeframe on a 3 min chart?

I think a 15/30 min maybe better have you looked at that?
Have a look at the Dax
I found FTSE difficult and choppy
Dax is more consistent i need only get on a good
hour for a good return.

Really I’m trying to get back to placing a trade on open and taking profit when it gets to a decent S/R.

I’m kicking myself for not lifting when the price started to top out.

My goal is going to be taking 30 to 60 point profits and increasing the amount of contracts over time as I get used to it. Holding longer just ends up giving back too much profit.

I’m really frustrated that I didn’t get out when I was up 60 points.

 

[pavilion103]

I knew that it had to correct but I thought price was too far away from my stop to worry about being taken out. I could have even exited and shorted given how much the market has been moving in both directions in this range recently.

 

[pavilion103]

The other night I took 65 points off the table with a short so that I could lock it in. That is the exact mindset that I want to take. If I trade three times as many contracts that’s $2000 for very little effort.

Anyway, a frustrating learning experience…

 

[pavilion103]

I came into the open thinking that a push-up like that one was definitely on the cards. I was also torn because I wouldn’t be surprised if we get a breakdown on the longer time frame. I feel like I’ve missed a really good shorting opportunity now.

I just have to switch it all off now and forget about it until next session!!

 

[tech/a]

Good mindset.
Hows your current closed position RR?

 

[pavilion103]

Good mindset.
Hows your current closed position RR?

I have just started recording my statistics this week. Because I have been trying to figure out what time frames I want to trade everything has been all over the place and I wasn’t keeping track!

I will most likely provide a summary of my statistics in here at some point.

 

[pavilion103]

I’ll check out the DAX

I remember years ago when you told me about it it seemed like it was a wild horse to me. Any tips to trading it compared to FTSE and ASX200?

 

[tech/a]

I look for unusual Price and Range action.
Tests of highs and lows. Every few sessions there will be
very strong and very fast moves in one direction.
These are what I want. Often 60+ points.
In out and done

 

[pavilion103]

I look for unusual Price and Range action.
Tests of highs and lows. Every few sessions there will be
very strong and very fast moves in one direction.
These are what I want. Often 60+ points.
In out and done

I’ll check it out. I can always load up the DAX as I’m reading the FTSE.

I do find with the FTSE that there are enough 30 to 60 point moves to make it very profitable when the initial risk is usually only 10 points or less.

I am happy to be on for the first 1.5 hours of the markets. Usually there’s a trade within that time frame and if I have not exited the position yet I can set alerts. It really is a good way to make money with very little time commitment.

Even so, time is not my issue at the moment. I have a Christian YouTube channel with 35K subscribers which gives me about half of an income. Plenty of time to be able to trade the opening parts of the markets and likely earn a full-time income doing that.

My main goal is to continue to increase the number of contracts and then even a 40 point move for 50 contracts on the $1 spot would be $2000. I’m not gonna worry about the idea of looking for bigger moves of 100+ points. A recipe for frustration. I can make far more taking 40-60 point profits with SIZE.

I’ll check out the DAX!

 

[barney]

I do find with the FTSE that there are enough 30 to 60 point moves to make it very profitable when the initial risk is usually only 10 points or less.

Hi Pav. Curiously have you done any testing to determine the optimum Range (Daily/Hourly etc) that best fits your objective

Given your obvious ability to pick pretty good entries etc, perhaps chasing big daily moves of 100 points /1.5% moves, which are historically less likely to eventuate, may not be your best bang for the buck?

Thinking out loud, after eyeballing the FTSE, the 0.5% level seems the sweet spot for intra-day winners (around 30 points is very common)

Perhaps a scaling out/locking in X amount of profit when tightening Stops etc plan could better optimize your longer term bottom line?

ps Appreciate your input/detail on the Thread. pps What is your You tube channel? I'd like to have a look

 

[pavilion103]

Hi Pav. Curiously have you done any testing to determine the optimum Range (Daily/Hourly etc) that best fits your objective

Given your obvious ability to pick pretty good entries etc, perhaps chasing big daily moves of 100 points /1.5% moves, which are historically less likely to eventuate, may not be your best bang for the buck?

Thinking out loud, after eyeballing the FTSE, the 0.5% level seems the sweet spot for intra-day winners (around 30 points is very common)

Perhaps a scaling out/locking in X amount of profit when tightening Stops etc plan could better optimize your longer term bottom line?

ps Appreciate your input/detail on the Thread. pps What is your You tube channel? I'd like to have a look

I agree with you exactly.
Coming back to trading I was really trying to determine what type of trading would suit my circumstances. I originally thought I would try to go for longer moves, less frequently.

But recognising how much I was giving back, and that I only have to spend the first 30 to 90 minutes at the screen for either the ASX or FTSE, for a good intraday profit with size, got me back to thinking that’s how I want to trade.

I agree that 30 points is quite common. Anything from 30-50 would give me regular opportunities. Risking 7-12 points per trade. Limiting risk at BE asap. Then taking profit as a trend begins to lose legs near the target S/R level.

I’d love to work from 10 contracts (on the spot $A1) up to 50+ which would really net a good income with little screen time.

My YouTube channel is: Lion of Fire Ministries.