PAV Technical Analysis and Trades

[barney]

I’d love to work from 10 contracts (on the spot $A1) up to 50+ which would really net a good income with little screen time.

My YouTube channel is: Lion of Fire Ministries.

Thanks for the link Pav. Will have a squiz. I was bought up in a "Christian environment" as a young fella, but in my older age, am a bit "alternative", lol. I do however respect anyone who has found their "path" in life, irrespective of where that path has manifest from. I have in recent times been listening to Jordan Peterson who I find quite compelling both intellectually and spiritually


Re the Futs, obviously you are very methodical Pav, and as @tech/a suggests, its only a matter of time before you work out a really good plan of attack to cash in on your abilities.

I wish I had your determination and patience because I do appreciate the concept of trading Futs since way back in the "Trembling Hand" era

Alas, as Dirty Harry suggested, A man needs to know his limitations, lol. You seem very well adapted for the Futs "swing trading" arena, so I hope you end up achieving your plan Cheers.

 

[pavilion103]

Thanks for the link Pav. Will have a squiz. I was bought up in a "Christian environment" as a young fella, but in my older age, am a bit "alternative", lol. I do however respect anyone who has found their "path" in life, irrespective of where that path has manifest from. I have in recent times been listening to Jordan Peterson who I find quite compelling both intellectually and spiritually


Re the Futs, obviously you are very methodical Pav, and as @tech/a suggests, its only a matter of time before you work out a really good plan of attack to cash in on your abilities.

I wish I had your determination and patience because I do appreciate the concept of trading Futs since way back in the "Trembling Hand" era

Alas, as Dirty Harry suggested, A man needs to know his limitations, lol. You seem very well adapted for the Futs "swing trading" arena, so I hope you end up achieving your plan Cheers.

I'd be interested to get your thoughts.
Truth is truth. It's a matter of who we trust to tell us the truth.
I trust the one who is most reliable; who fulfilled hundreds of prophecies written hundreds of years before his birth, claimed to be God in the flesh, and historically rose from the dead.
I don't trust Christianity, I trust Christ!
I certainly don't put my trust in the popular pseudo-scientific nonsense of the day, that our ancestors are bacteria!!

Re Jordan Peterson he seems close to accepting Christ. He isn't quite there yet but grappling with it.
He is a good voice for sanity in today's insane world!
Even since I was last on ASF things have changed drastically. People have lost their collective minds!!

With the futures, I'm really learning a lot getting back into it.
I have a trading plan which I have been refining over the past few weeks and it's coming together nicely.
Now that I have clarity, I just need to execute it well

 

[pavilion103]

A couple of losses on the Aussie market today.
Really this is not the type of conditions conducive to a whole lot of profit these past couple of days!
Lots of chop.
Just need to back off when it happens, and be very selective if I see an opportunity.
I didn't bother loading up the FTSE tonight. Took the chance for a Friday night off!

 

[pavilion103]

It could be an important week for the indices. I’m watching S&P500, ASX200, FTSE.

We are right at a resistance but price action appears bullish. Will we see price break out of this range?

An important point in the markets...

 

[pavilion103]

It's an interesting right now.
There seem to be some nice bases forming on the indices and a number of stocks which have fallen significantly already.
I've been thinking that there is potential for a collapse but at the same time I don't want to miss a potential bottom because on longer term investment potential because I was holding out for a bigger crash.

What do people think? Interested in any thoughts?

 

[tech/a]

Let the price action answer.
Volume and Range.

The crowd will show the way.
Remember The crowd that moves
the market aren’t mum dads and you or I!

You should look deeply into yourself and
know when your guessing. ( pre empting)

Its ok to be wrong
How long you remain wrong is a different matter!

 

[pavilion103]

Let the price action answer.
Volume and Range.

The crowd will show the way.
Remember The crowd that moves
the market aren’t mum dads and you or I!

You should look deeply into yourself and
know when your guessing. ( pre empting)

Its ok to be wrong
How long you remain wrong is a different matter!

Yeh that’s the key isn’t it!

I saw the statement “react don’t predict” - says it all!

This past week price has been trending up slowly but steadily. This is what makes me think it looks bullish. But one bar at a time!

I have had a really good read on the direction of market action most days.
It’s easy to think that I need to get it right every time, when I clearly don’t. Good RR setups and risk management creates positive expectancy, not 100% winning ratio!

 

[peter2]

As soon as we're uncertain, we're doomed.

IMO we need to be prepared to trade in both directions using objective patterns.
When trading in the direction of our overall bias aim for a little bit more (take some at our average profit and trail the rest).
When trading against our trend bias, take average profits asap.

We must keep stats so that we know our average wins and losses.

 

[pavilion103]

As soon as we're uncertain, we're doomed.

IMO we need to be prepared to trade in both directions using objective patterns.
When trading in the direction of our overall bias aim for a little bit more (take some at our average profit and trail the rest).
When trading against our trend bias, take average profits asap.

We must keep stats so that we know our average wins and losses.

Thanks mate. Great comments.

 

[pavilion103]

Good day on the ASX
$700 profit from $180 initial risk.
20 contracts x 9 point risk.
70 points profit.

FTSE I lost 8 points ($80).
Too choppy.
No point trading such wide patterns.

 

[peter2]

I appreciated that you liked my comments, so I'll add a little more for you to think about.

The best trading reversals start at the high or low of a session (Aus, UK, US). Can be High or low of the day also but not necessarily. The high of a UK session can be lower than the high of the prior Aus session.

eg If my trend bias for oil is down I'll look for a reversal setup at the high of the UK or US session to short it.
eg If my trend bias on the USDJPY is long, I'll look for a reversal pattern to go long at the low of the UK or US session.

The large market participants have a tendency to trap less experienced traders at these highs and lows.

This process saves me time as I only need look for the strongest and clearest trends with current pull-backs. I arrange the 4 - 6 charts to observe them all and wait for the reversal patterns to form near the high/low of the UK/US sessions.

Very occasionally the trend will move in the AUS session but that's rare. If I miss out then I'm looking for a trend continuation pattern to get in. The AUS session is a low volume one and frequently has a narrow range increasing the odds of a winning break-out opportunity in the UK session. Once price makes a new high (if it was a BO up) be on the lookout for the reversal trap. If you trade the daily trend then you're less likely to be trapped.

Your nice ASX winning trade started soon after the open. Where? At the high of the day. Many of your FTSE reversals form soon after the London open. Where? At the HOD or LOD.

 

[pavilion103]

I

I appreciated that you liked my comments, so I'll add a little more for you to think about.

The best trading reversals start at the high or low of a session (Aus, UK, US). Can be High or low of the day also but not necessarily. The high of a UK session can be lower than the high of the prior Aus session.

eg If my trend bias for oil is down I'll look for a reversal setup at the high of the UK or US session to short it.
eg If my trend bias on the USDJPY is long, I'll look for a reversal pattern to go long at the low of the UK or US session.

The large market participants have a tendency to trap less experienced traders at these highs and lows.

This process saves me time as I only need look for the strongest and clearest trends with current pull-backs. I arrange the 4 - 6 charts to observe them all and wait for the reversal patterns to form near the high/low of the UK/US sessions.

Very occasionally the trend will move in the AUS session but that's rare. If I miss out then I'm looking for a trend continuation pattern to get in. The AUS session is a low volume one and frequently has a narrow range increasing the odds of a winning break-out opportunity in the UK session. Once price makes a new high (if it was a BO up) be on the lookout for the reversal trap. If you trade the daily trend then you're less likely to be trapped.

Your nice ASX winning trade started soon after the open. Where? At the high of the day. Many of your FTSE reversals form soon after the London open. Where? At the HOD or LOD.

I appreciate this. Thank you.

I am with you on this!
I like to be at the screen for the first 1.5h max because I know the best setup for a move most often comes within that time (often in the first 30-60 mins).
Then I can turn it off and set alerts or limit order etc.

I’ve definitely also noticed the reversal traps!
That’s why I like to be clear on support and resistance levels. It also makes it a challenge to hold overnight unless it’s in a really good spot!!

I have not ventured into commodities or forex but that sounds very interesting how you approach it in conjunction with the indices!

 

[pavilion103]

Question for anyone experienced @peter2 @tech/a

Do you avoid trading a particular day prior to major news? eg. CPI, GDP etc

How do you trade around this news?

For example, on the FTSE, if there is news coming out 1-2 hours after the start of the session, would you simply not trade before that?

 

[peter2]

I didn't respond as we each have to make our own decisions and I thought the question had an obvious answer. I always close open positions before important news. I won't even start one in the hour before because price can meander sideways. Here's an example of why I chose the close my open trades before news. Check out the price spike after the US CPI news.

AUDUSD: My trend bias is up (based on the 4hr chart as the daily trend is unclear). I started this trade after the reversal formed at the low of the UK session. I earned ~2.5R on this trade. There was more available but I'm happy with this above average result before the news.



Just about every market had a huge spike in response to that news.
Reversal setups formed in the US session (again at the low of the session) but my focus had shifted to the US after the news.

The hardest part of this business is being patient and waiting for the perfect setup. Yesterday I traded three reversal setups in one market and two in another. I lost on all five. On review, three of those "setups" were less than perfect. I was a little impatient but the market finally gave me a winning trade later on. We all have bad days and good days.

 

[peter2]

Re: Your question on the FTSE. This index does get quite volatile an hour before open and then immediately after the open. I prefer to let it settle so if there's important EU news later I'll not trade it.

 

[pavilion103]

I stayed up for the news and allowed it to drop and then traded a reversal on the FTSE.

I wasn’t awake for the other moves but it looks like some great setups.

I’ve never really had a strategy to trade around news. The reason I asked the question is that I wondered if people held prior to news if they anticipated a certain move, or if it’s just too unpredictable to benefit from an open position!

 

[KevinBB]

Do you avoid trading a particular day prior to major news? eg. CPI, GDP etc

How do you trade around this news?

None of my back tests take news or daily events into account, so, it follows that my trading should not take these into account either.

I use trend following methods to trade futures when my signals tell me to trade. Price is the only factor, news isn't taken into account at all.

KH

 

[pavilion103]

Tonight's trade. Very clean. Simple.
I was looking for a short.
After the pushdown on the open I was looking for the push up to be halted with action looking weak.
I got a nice little 2 bar setup. Great RR.
I sold near a profit target. I didn't have the guts to hold longer until there was a clearer halt to the downward momentum.
But I am content with 49 points from a 10 risk.
I don't need to maximize every move. In fact, trying to do so will probably cost me dearly.
That's a good chunk profit for me!

 

[pavilion103]

I held a position on the ASX200 all day with a stop above the highs. I then sold out after the Aussie market close for a 6 point loss.
I'm still unclear about holding trades after the session heading into the next market. The stop was wider (16 points) so I didn't want to take any unnecessary risk.

Unfortunately the trade has moved 65 points since then. My profit target was 50 points. Annoying but that's ok.
I need to learn what to do... should I hold in future or not?!

 

[pavilion103]

I'm a bit nervous. I have two big (for me) open profit positions on S&P500 and NASDAQ.
I got in a few days ago at resistance on the 4 hour chart, with a play to capitalize on a push down to lower lows on the daily chart.
Initial risk was about $2,000.
Stops to B/E so no stress.
Open profit is:
S&P500 = $1,040
NASDAQ = $1,600