PAV Technical Analysis and Trades

[pavilion103]

So I've decided on a trading strategy that suits my preference to not spend hours a day in front of the screen.

I am looking to use the daily chart (in conjunction with the 4 hour chart) to identify and attempt to enter positions as a trend is beginning or just under way.

My goal is to trade in that direction and hold positions for a number of days to ride the trend up to my target level (support or resistance) or when I see signs that I should exit.

This is a rough idea of the types of trends I am attempting to capture (FTSE daily chart below).

Of course, I will not be able to get on and off every trend as easily as I've marked up the chart below but I aim to capture what I can, which I think will be incredibly profitable.

This allows me to place trades, be very hands off and achieve big R:R.
Of course the risk is that I give back decent profits at times, which I believe is well worth the potential benefit (in the long run) of holding during a trend.

 

[pavilion103]

KEY RULES:
- KNOW which way I want to trade prior to the session.
- KNOW the KEY LEVELS (support/resistance).
- Look to be aggressive where necessary at the open.
- Get on a trade in the first hour at the high/low of the day.
- MOVE stop to BREAKEVEN ASAP (as soon as the chart allows it).
- Set and forget (profit limit order if necessary). Turn off computer and don't think about it.

 

[pavilion103]

Today I entered on the FTSE (FTSE Cash A$1) CFD
Below is 3 min chart

I was very certain that I wanted to be long prior to the trade.
First bar was a HUGE push down.
I opened the 1 min chart in conjunction with the 3 min.

The numbers below correspond to the numbers that I have marked up on the chart.

1. I actually entered on the 1 min chart as it showed signs of the down bar halting.
Enter- 7121, Stop - 7114 (7 point risk).
I was very aggressive because I knew that if this was the low of the day the RR would be MASSIVE!
Because it was so aggressive I only took 10 contracts (not the usual 20).

2. Price rose and pushed down to 7125. I strongly considered adding another 10 contracts @ 7127.
It was a 13 point risk which I knew would be a good spot but I hesitated unfortunately.

3. Once this bar closed and price started pushing up, I moved stop to BE. Turned off platform. Will relax and enjoy the evening. Job done for tonight!

Of course there is a chance I could be stopped out but this is my process.
Attempt to get in at the potential high/low of the day in the first 30-60mins, limit risk. Let it run...

 

[pavilion103]

Target for the trend, on the daily and 4 hour chart would be around 7300.
That would be 180 points, $1,800. That would be huge RR for the initial risk of $70.
Had I taken the second position that would be 360 points, $3,600 for initial risk of $200.
Of course this won't always come off, and will result in $0 many times but over time it will be an enormous positive expectancy.

I was strongly considering a long yesterday but was hesitant about the direction because the week before I had attempted longs on the S&P500 and ASX200, but they reversed and fell sharply (managed risk well for only $200 loss).

This what psychology can do.
I saw it all there yesterday. Could have easily claimed 100 points but a bad experience the week before was the reason I didn't enter.

Now I DIDN'T enter all these BUT... Here is the potential (won't hit them all the times but many times I will).
Had yesterday been entered 20 contracts $7020, and IF (big IF) the trend hypothetically went up to 7300, then that's.
Yesterday 280 points (20 contracts) $5,600.
Today 180 points (had I taken 20) $3,600
Total $9,200 (not including any trades in the following days for potential additions. Although the later the entry in the trend the more risky, the less RR, and the better the opportunity has to be).
$9,200 for a risk of maybe $400. Not bad RR.

Like I said, I didn't all these trades, AND, the chart could reverse any time to the downside, BUT this is my mindset in how I want to profit from the markets!!

 

[pavilion103]

Even getting on one decent trade @10-20 contracts for any given trend of 200-300 points is a great result.
You could miss a number of opportunities (and be stopped out of a number of trades for a small loss) and still make big profit.

My goal is then to get comfortable with trading more contracts.
For example 50 contracts for a 200 point move = $10,000.
That could easily be achieved a few days/week at times WHEN the market is moving.
As long as losses are minimized and there's no overtrading, it's going to work very very well.

 

[barney]

Even getting on one decent trade @10-20 contracts for any given trend of 200-300 points is a great result.
You could miss a number of opportunities (and be stopped out of a number of trades for a small loss) and still make big profit.

My goal is then to get comfortable with trading more contracts.
For example 50 contracts for a 200 point move = $10,000.
That could easily be achieved a few days/week at times WHEN the market is moving.
As long as losses are minimized and there's no overtrading, it's going to work very very well.

I like the way you think Pav .....

Just to state the obvious for anyone bedazzled by the potential gains;

Taking large/multiple contracts of course requires a large/larger trading "bank"

With that in mind; each Punters trading bank should realistically be "X" amount (percentage) of their overall "wealth"

ie. Don't bet the house on a short time frame (unless you have a **** load of houses to risk, lol)

It seems obvious to seasoned traders, but the lure of great returns whilst ignoring the potential risks can cause life long consequences.

Some may suggest .... What gives me the right to "preach" such "condescending", I know better/holy joe talk? (not my intention btw)

Anyone who genuinely wants to know the answer to that is welcome to "private message" me

 

[pavilion103]

I like the way you think Pav .....

Just to state the obvious for anyone bedazzled by the potential gains;

Taking large/multiple contracts of course requires a large/larger trading "bank"

With that in mind; each Punters trading bank should realistically be "X" amount (percentage) of their overall "wealth"

ie. Don't bet the house on a short time frame (unless you have a **** load of houses to risk, lol)

It seems obvious to seasoned traders, but the lure of great returns whilst ignoring the potential risks can cause life long consequences.

Some may suggest .... What gives me the right to "preach" such "condescending", I know better/holy joe talk? (not my intention btw)

Anyone who genuinely wants to know the answer to that is welcome to "private message" me

Managing risk is very important. People should only take a risk that they are comfortable with and which is appropriate for their situation.

It never hurts to post the reminder that you have. There definitely is a lure of potential life changing gains which can make people act irrationally to try to achieve it.

I actually spent the best part of four years learning how to trade before I even put a dollar in the market. I’m not saying that everyone has to go to that extreme, but what I’m saying is that I understand the importance of getting one self prepared before they put their money on the line.

 

[barney]

I actually spent the best part of four years learning how to trade before I even put a dollar in the market. I’m not saying that everyone has to go to that extreme, but what I’m saying is that I understand the importance of getting one self prepared before they put their money on the line.

100% Pav .... My previous comment was in no way directed at yourself. Your methodology is something that new punters in particular should take note of!

Looking forward to your next period of input on ASF. Many will benefit I'm sure.

 

[pavilion103]

Trade stopped at breakeven.
It got as high as 70 points up ($700).
I’m not fussed in the slightest. That’s a price I’m willing to pay to get on a decent trend (200-400 points) from time to time.

I’ll move my stop loss within the trend to lock in profit where appropriate. But only after a decent correction within the trend.

A stop too tight will lock in some profit but will get taken out too easily. Defeats the purpose of the strategy!

My focus is on managing risk on entry and then getting stop to BE.

 

[pavilion103]

I’m quite bearish overall at the moment for FTSE, ASX200, S&P500.

Price has trickled up over this past week and I’m looking for the next shorting opportunity.

 

[DaveTrade]

I’m quite bearish overall at the moment for FTSE, ASX200, S&P500.

Price has trickled up over this past week and I’m looking for the next shorting opportunity.

Short squeeze at moment, could go to the end of the week.

 

[ducati916]

I’m quite bearish overall at the moment for FTSE, ASX200, S&P500.

Price has trickled up over this past week and I’m looking for the next shorting opportunity.

Pav, nice thread.

I'll definitely follow along as I trade the US.

Echo @DaveTrade, SPY is bouncing currently. Therefore new short positions are potentially in the wind currently until the trend re-establishes itself.

jog on
duc

 

[pavilion103]

This is something I'm grappling with...
I'm uncertain how aggressive or patient to be.
I want a good setup. I also am a bit worried about missing if it does push straight down.
Either way I need to manage risk!

Jerome Powell testifies 9:30am Wednesday morning US time.
Will be interesting to see his tone, and any potential impact on markets!

 

[bk1]

US futures just turned bearish for the open, and the Aussie market has turned over.

 

[pavilion103]

ASX200.
I'm new to attempting these types of trades on a larger time frame but I'm seeing how it works.

I looked for an intraday entry as price pushed up to 6550. 10 contracts x 35 point risk = $350 risk.

The high from Tues 21 June is 6583.

This has been rejected a couple of times on the 1 hour chart.

I feel like this is the earliest spot to take an aggressive trade to the downside.

What do you think? Too risk? or worth it for the RR?

 

[tech/a]

Pav

Try not to trade noise.
Not every day is a trading day on the Futs in the timeframe your trading.
Look for opportunities out of consolidation.

 

[pavilion103]

Pav

Try not to trade noise.
Not every day is a trading day on the Futs in the timeframe your trading.
Look for opportunities out of consolidation.

Yeh I’m finding that it’s easy to overtrade!

I’m trying to find potential short entries at the top of these consolidations so that it’s in the best spot not to get taken out!

Definitely fear of missing out is my biggest enemy at the moment. Need to get on top of that.

 

[pavilion103]

Trying to get on a short in case this market collapses downward.
Past few days uneventful.
Yesterday ASX200 - breakeven (was 30-40 points in my favor)
FTSE - breakeven (was 30-40 points in my favor)

All with good setups.
Didn't have time to post the charts.

 

[pavilion103]

I'm on this trade now.

 

[pavilion103]

Here is the entry. Can't get the chart to fill the screen properly to give a better perspective. But you get the picture.
I anticipated potential for a down move.
10 contracts @6683 (stop 6691).

Of course wish I took double position! Did this with FTSE yesterday for B/E in the end.