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Personal Bias Risk.

Watching the Wall Street indicies and noticing they were trading up. The fall on the US was so big last night that there is sure to be a small rebound tonight, thus pushing our market up a little. I am still bearish for the medium term though.
Click to expand...

They did and we didnt.
Let the market dictate.
Your opinion isnt going to shift the market.
Unless thats you George!
 
Now your looking for that opportunity to pyramid.
Also looking for a place to raise that trailing stop from B/E to a little higher.

What do you reckon Aussie!

Or have you pulled the pin again?
 
Yesterdays high would be a good place for a stop for a pyramid today into the current short.
 
tech/a said:
Now your looking for that opportunity to pyramid.
Also looking for a place to raise that trailing stop from B/E to a little higher.

What do you reckon Aussie!

Or have you pulled the pin again?
Click to expand...

Thanks for asking tech.

Well, i made a mess of this one (don't ask).

The things i have learned are this:

1. Decide which timeframe you are trading (thanks to all of you who drummed this concept into my head); whether it's intraday, few days at at time or a few weeks. I think i am most comfortable with a few weeks, but i don't mind the occasional intraday trade either.

2. Look at appropriate charts for timeframe.

Eg. Yearly, last few months for medium term trade

Eg. Last few weeks, daily and minute by minute charts for intraday - identify support and resistance levels.

2. Position sizing. Yes, i finally get it... If you are sure about your direction, can do 1/2 position now and leave half for later.

3. Patience. Do not panic. If i calculate my position carefully and have reasons for entering (weight of evidence), then i will feel more comfortable with my position.

Patience is also important when determining entry. Do not panic and settle for second best, be patient and wait for your entry. Do not compromise (another limitation of mine).

4. Initial stop loss - still working on this i admit. Not sure whether to set % of position value, just above or below support or resistance (depending on direction). *Grr*… will be working on this over the weekend.

I now, however, have woken up to the importance of trailing stops. Still unsure as to exact % away from position to set them, but am assuming tighter for shorter term trades, and looser for longer term.

Right now, i am not sure where the broader market is heading, so i am taking time out and will think about it over the weekend. Am going to plan a long and short entry, with reasons. Will post here and stick with it.


Summary (i need to do this for my own sake): plan carefully, work out timeframe, have reasons for entering <and preferably for exiting>, position size carefully, stops <have to work on this>, patience for entering and exiting).
 
i reckon ya doing pretty bludy good Aussie ---- well done for having the ticker to put your stuff out there for scrutiny
 
So Monday.

The dilema.

Leave the stop on the Pyramided trade where it is OR move it up to B/E.

Personally I would be moving to B/E. I like to see a trade move immediately and convincingly in my favor. Happy to let a pyramid go at B/E if hit and re assess the next opportunity.
Its a personal choice but as we have the opportunity to limit loss then I like to take it.
 
Hmm, yes. Well, the market hasn't been moving 'convincingly' in my direction, so i would move the pyramided position to b/e.

What's possible:

1. SPI will find weak support at 3,800 and continue till around 4,100 before a correction back to 3,600 or 3,500.

2. SPI shies away from 3,800 as usual and corrects back down to 3.650 (don't forget this support level) or 3,500.

3. SPI finds support at 3,800 and trends upward for a while, with small corrections along the way.

3. Anything's possible. Maybe we all have no clue

Thoughts:

SPI has tested 3,800 resistance 3 times since Dec/Jan 09. This fourth one is particularly important: SP has been hovering, news not so bad in US.

Reporting season in the US was "better than expected" last week. Hence one surprise day on wed/thurs, and a strong end to the week on Friday with 1.5% rise.

Nice green candle on last trading day, although it didn't gap up. Could be a worry.

Slight changes in short term trends every month or so. Statistically speaking, we are due for a change mid-late next week.

Also, have to remember that 3,100 was a significant low. Sentiment would have to be shattered in order for it to reach that again, or even 3,300. Is that possible? What news could possibly do that?

Interesting news to come this week:

ANZ and NAB to report half year results
US GDP March Qtr results
2 minor reports AUS: new home sales & private sector credit data (not market movers IMO).

And, then there's the future of GM, which could move the market in June.

Right now, i'd be aiming for a short around 4000-4,100. So, let's see
 
Aussiest said:
I don't think this rally's quite had it's run. Next few days perhaps?
Click to expand...

We do know that moves up or down dont move in one direction from top to bottom, Bottom to top without periods of pause.
As the original analysis is looking for a prolonged down move then we would be expecting this pause.
 
Aussiest said:
1. SPI will find weak support at 3,800 and continue till around 4,100 before a correction back to 3,600 or 3,500.
Click to expand...

Where did you get these numbers? Have you found these points on a graph or are you just assuming what the market will do?

Aussiest said:
2. SPI shies away from 3,800 as usual and corrects back down to 3.650 (don't forget this support level) or 3,500.
Click to expand...

IMO this one is the most likely, we should reject 3820 and if not 3850. If we push through 3850 then red flags might start arising

Aussiest said:
3. SPI finds support at 3,800 and trends upward for a while, with small corrections along the way.
Click to expand...

It is still in an uptrend, albeit a weak-overlapping one. Higher highs and lower lows. 3800 is a significant level, but not so significant as 3820 & 3850

Aussiest said:
3. Anything's possible. Maybe we all have no clue
Click to expand...

Yep. I have no idea what the market will do either. It is a mighty beast very hard to tame

Aussiest said:
Right now, i'd be aiming for a short around 4000-4,100. So, let's see
Click to expand...

I currently have a short on the SPI, but if we move up i may be stopped out. Looking to re-enter around 3820 (if the run up is weak), or 3850 should we push up impulsively in the next few days. Should we break 3850 i won't be looking to open any positions at all, i'll just stand aside

Cheers,
Brad
 
beamstas said:
Where did you get these numbers? Have you found these points on a graph or are you just assuming what the market will do?
Click to expand...

Yes, i got them off chart. 3829 is more precise, guess i was a bit slack with my numbers.

I got the 4000-4100 from the small kick up on the LHS.


 
Why are you both going into the ---if this does this stuff?
Just set the trade as Ive done and let it play out.


We will either have the pyramid stopped which will mean we have one open postion short or we will have an open position short with 2 contracts.

There is more numbers there than a phone book.
More predictions and what if's than an astrologer.
 

HA, I'll be trading Gann before i know it

Cheers,
Brad
 
Just as there are 5 waves in the direction of the trend there are 3 in the corrective move. So stopped out of the pyramid, should have waited for the 3 legs.

Next opportunity if support is broken.
 
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