Paper Trading: Log your results!

[alwaysLearning]

More so if the move isnt considered to be over according to their analysis---what they think personally "Shouldnt" come into it.



Yes could do that too.



Common happens to me on occasion but once in profit you should NEVER go below break even. Then when one does finally play out--pay day!



I take profit when its time to exit. Before then I'm just doing business.
Its the end result of that business thats important.



At break even.



Your risking Zip if your moving to B/E as quick as possible.

Now for those who are nervous or who dont consider the move they are in is possible to predict an exit---then a Trailing stop is in order.
I have (When I use them) used a lower high, An obvious stop in the up move (Low volume test),double top on lower volume among other things.
The other is a parabolic stop.
When price advances basically vertical and then shows on a short term chart that is going to blow off.
Often getting me out before a 30-50% rapid down move.

But generally its longer term if I can.
But rarely if I can help it below B/E.

Thanks tech your post helps me out a lot. MM with the questions I asked above have been bugging me for quite some time. I'll give your MM strategy a go. Although I have been doing what you do at times, but not consistantly since I've been testing a few different systems with different MM.

 

[Aussiest]

hope you dont mind me hopping on and giving a hand?

No, not at all! I'd be appreciative of the advice .

I know it will be hard, challenging my weaknesses etc., but i'm thinking initial strategy is to keep moving stop losses and, as you say, scale in on short-term peaks to an overall down trend. Strange, i would have pyramided in when the price moved down.

Only thing is, how to manage pyramiding positions? Set new stop losses, at what stage do i liquidate trade, including initial position, if it turns against me? I guess i'd have a stop in place which would hopefully attract some profit.

Anyway, for now, i have moved stop to break even. Haven't added to position yet...

Just got to learn when to move my stops, and by how much

Okay. Example, went short 1 contract the SPI at 3769. I set my stop at 3755, it is now trading at 3725.

 

[Mr J]

Just got to learn when to move my stops, and by how much

What is the reasoning for you placing your trades? Example, are you looking to short on a break of support, are you trading a trend, etc. The stops should be moved to the point where it's likely your strategy is no longer working. Think about your strategy and where the logical exists should be.

 

[Aussiest]

What is the reasoning for you placing your trades? Example, are you looking to short on a break of support, are you trading a trend, etc. The stops should be moved to the point where it's likely your strategy is no longer working. Think about your strategy and where the logical exists should be.

Reasoning: support and/or resistance. Momentum - thinning volume. Market exhaustion, negative sentiment. (i know, i need to study up on more of the indicators).

I understand what you're saying about logical significant "points". I thought of that after i posted.

Looking at the SPI chart, i wouldn't be surprised if the SPI retraces to around 3,600 (if it is a small retrace. Will depend on news over the next few nights in the US?). I currently have my exit set for 3,550.

I've just moved my stop to 3742, as is indicated as falling through support on chart. Gosh, i hope i have done the right thing

 

[Aussiest]

Well, the US is 1/2 hr into trading and it's looking red, red, red. My trade should go well tomorrow!

 

[tech/a]

If your taking a longer term view then set your stop (Initial stop) accordingly.
I personally would still have it a B/E until the trade matures a bit.

Pyramiding is another topis and in itself there are many ways of handling it.
I set each trade on its own merits.
You can of course set the trade as one and Average entry and stops for B/E.

I treat mine as individual trades as at times my pyramid may well be 2-3 times the size of the initial trade.

So all good for your short---dont worry about retracements thats very normal you must learn that you'll give some profit back at time to stay in the position of making excellent long term business profit.

 

[Aussiest]

Thanks Tech/a.

Sitting on 2.6k profit, so tempted to take it!

 

[beamstas]

"Sitting on 2.6k profit, so tempted to take it!"

But why?

 

[Aussiest]

Okay, i get your point . I would have said "because that's good money", but you're saying "you need technical or fundamental reasons to close the trade".

Technical reason: perhaps market will step up a little and retrace tomorrow... in which case i could close now and short again tomorrow?

Other reason: if i see market retrace tomorrow (i am short and i think it will go up a little), i may lose my nerve and take it out. Then i would regret that i didn't do it today at a higher profit.

I guess also, i have a "take the money and run" and "don't be greedy" philosophy.

This is so hard, grr...

 

[beamstas]

Okay, i get your point . I would have said "because that's good money", but you're saying "you need technical or fundamental reasons to take the money".

Technical reason: perhaps market will step up a little and retrace tomorrow... in which case i could close now and short again tomorrow?

Other reason: if i see market retrace tomorrow (i am short and i think it will go up a little), i may lose my nerve and take it out.

Why do you think it will go up?
You are not using 100% of your brain. Only 50%, the side that says its going up

It has a chance to go up
It has a chance to go down

Don't forget the second scenario

Brad

 

[Trembling Hand]

Aussiest the reason you are lost is because you don't know where you are going!

Figure out what the hell you are trying to do by first observing whats probable. Then you will know how to deal with trades. along the lines of what Frank does.

 

[Mr J]

Okay, i get your point . I would have said "because that's good money", but you're saying "you need technical or fundamental reasons to close the trade".

Technical reason: perhaps market will step up a little and retrace tomorrow... in which case i could close now and short again tomorrow?

Other reason: if i see market retrace tomorrow (i am short and i think it will go up a little), i may lose my nerve and take it out. Then i would regret that i didn't do it today at a higher profit.

I guess also, i have a "take the money and run" and "don't be greedy" philosophy.

This is so hard, grr...

You do need a good reason to exit, providing that your original reasoning for entering the trade was sound. However, if you do conclude that your original reasoning was flawed, then you should exit the trade immediately.

I think you're confusing yourself with trading different timeframes. Retracements must be expected on the chart you posted, and I thought you're confusing yourself by focusing on waves (movements) smaller than the one you plan to take advantage of.

In the chart I attatched, your entry and profit target suggest that you're trying to trade the red line, but it sounds like you're focusing too much on what the blue line is doing. You should decide what timeframe you want to trade, as otherwise it's just going to scare you out of trades.

You wanted to see 3550-3600 and you're riding a downtrend. I imagine it's exactly how you wanted this trade to play out, so why exit?

in which case i could close now and short again tomorrow?

You could, this would be trading a different timeframe to your current trade.

Then i would regret that i didn't do it today at a higher profit.

That's part of trading. How would you feel if you exited today only to see it drop to 3100? This is why you should have a clear strategy and reason to exit. Without these, you'll just constantly second guess yourself and that can be very damaging.

I guess also, i have a "take the money and run" and "don't be greedy" philosophy.

Trading is a funny business, but just remember that you should take what you can. The occasional big win you get from letting it run will add significantly to the bottom line. The choice to let it run isn't about greed, as emotions shouldn't have anything to do with it. The choice is because the trader has calculated it to be a profitable move to do so.

 

[Aussiest]

You do need a good reason to exit, providing that your original reasoning for entering the trade was sound. However, if you do conclude that your original reasoning was flawed, then you should exit the trade immediately.

Yes, i agree.

You should decide what timeframe you want to trade, as otherwise it's just going to scare you out of trades.

Yes, you're right. I've always been more comfortable with short term, multiple trades, but am learning to trade a bit more 'longer term'.

You wanted to see 3550-3600 and you're riding a downtrend. I imagine it's exactly how you wanted this trade to play out, so why exit?

Watching the Wall Street indicies and noticing they were trading up. The fall on the US was so big last night that there is sure to be a small rebound tonight, thus pushing our market up a little. I am still bearish for the medium term though.

You could, this would be trading a different timeframe to your current trade.

I thought about this and it is possible to take out two positions: one to hold medium term and the other to trade the shorter term fluctuations.

That's part of trading. How would you feel if you exited today only to see it drop to 3100?

Hmm, i get your point

 

[beamstas]

Aussie

Don't even think about the money


Think of it like a scoreboard.. and you are Richmond (LOL! )

Don't give up just because you kicked a goal
Think about the next 50 goals.. 100 goals.. or even better the next 1000 goals!

You can't make a big profit taking a small profit

Brad

 

[Aussiest]

What are the best entry signals though?

Usually, i look for exhaustion (momentum dropping off, price action cooling down) - RSI, divergence

Market sentiment: what the news is saying and how people will likely respond to it

The US market: how the Dow and indices did the night before, what the Wall Street index is doing in after-market trade.

I guess i look at candles, but candles are great after the event. I am interested in what the event is going to do next.

I look at oil and gold prices so that i can monitor oil and gold stocks.

Is there anything i have missed?

Exit signals can be a reversal in the Wall Street index during the day (AEST), a sudden price move of oil or gold, how i perceive Wall St will do tonight.

 

[tech/a]

What are the best entry signals though?

Usually, i look for exhaustion (momentum dropping off, price action cooling down) - RSI, divergence

Market sentiment: what the news is saying and how people will likely respond to it

The US market: how the Dow and indices did the night before, what the Wall Street index is doing in after-market trade.

I guess i look at candles, but candles are great after the event. I am interested in what the event is going to do next.

I look at oil and gold prices so that i can monitor oil and gold stocks.

Is there anything i have missed?

Exit signals can be a reversal in the Wall Street index during the day (AEST), a sudden price move of oil or gold, how i perceive Wall St will do tonight.

The spine shivers.

 

[MRC & Co]

The spine shivers.

ROLFMAO.

Sorry, Aussiest, you will learn a lot here as I did, just funny seeing that list and then the comment.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Is there anything i have missed?
.

Oh you could add a hell of a lot more.

Or you could forget all that crap and just look at what you are trading

 

[James Austin]

Is there anything i have missed?

stay on sim

 

[Aussiest]

The spine shivers.

Well, people here go on about TA. What am i supposed to do? Rub a crystal ball?

Usually i just trade with instinct, around support and resistance, but thought that i should use some TA.

I don't know, i give up... (not on trading, but on trying to change my style).

By the way, to the person who said "keep using sim", i have gone well beyond sim. I am using sim for the SPI. I think i'll go alright, just got to get my stops into place. I have already made 3k+ doing trades i would have done in real life, and am confident i can do more. It's just a matter of waiting for the right conditions.