P2 US Equity Portfolio

[aus_trader]

Hope you'll be on a roll Pete, best of luck.

 

[peter2]

The install problem remains. I can't install my trading platform. I'll send a pic to support.

 

[qldfrog]

@qldfrog Thanks for your offer of assistance with my PC problem.
Installed a new GC and it didn't work either. Swapped the old good one into the second slot, didn't work. Put the old "bad" one in the top slot, it worked. Not the GC.
Was advised that it's probably the motherboard. Motherboards are cheaper than GC's but more work to install. No probs, order one in for me. I'll get back to you.

Got home, vacuumed all the dust from the desk, It was very dusty. Reattached everything and "presto" everything was working. All icons were back in their right spots, all three monitors were working, just out of order.

Lesson for the day. Beats me, although I did pay for the guys time even though he didn't do anything. Good karma fixes computer. (?) or a little bit of corrosion was removed by all the removing and replacing of components.(?)

Now, to tackle the install problems. I feel lucky tonight.

Dust cleanup has resurrected a desktop twice for me
You can buy oressure gas can or just use carefully you home vacuum cleaner

 

[qldfrog]

Com server registration issue is commonhttps://clientcenter.tradestation.com/download/installationpop/importantmessage_06122003.htm
Then i suspect your support line could give you one or more dll to register manually in a dos prompt (run command) then in the right directory
regsvr32 xxxx.dll
Sadly i do not know much about tradestation so can not really help you further but you might be able to suggest this to support and they might give it a go
Otherwise, a matter of removing every thing cleanly, disable firewall before a clean reinstallation
Best of luck

 

[jjbinks]

Hi P2,

I'm a bit late to the party. But glad to see you tackling US stocks.
Hope you fixed your install issues.

Just wondering if you are planning to trade short aswell?

Cheers
J

 

[peter2]

Not exactly. The list of ETFs contain a few inverse ETFs. When the market goes down these will form setups to go long. So, yes I'll attempt to profit when the market goes up and down.

 

[jjbinks]

Not exactly. The list of ETFs contain a few inverse ETFs. When the market goes down these will form setups to go long. So, yes I'll attempt to profit when the market goes up and down.

Hi P2,

I until recently was also thinking about role of inverse ETF in my trend following system. After reading Clenow's Trading Evolved I decided it probably wasn't best idea. Clenow basically explains how volatility also causes Inverse ETF's to lose money compared to index.

His example
E.g
If Index starts at 1000 points and then increase 3% to 1030 then drops by 2.91% to 1000 again and this happens 5 times with index going up and down but returning to 1000.
Inverse ETF will go 1000-->970and then only go back to 998 when original index rises by 2.91 and then down to 968.3 and back up to 996.5 and so on so with high volatility can effect your results.

This is probably not that big a factor for you if you have shorter holding periods but with longer holding periods it is definitely something to think about.

Cheers
Jj

 

[qldfrog]

Maybe a stupid idea but if instead of climbing then falling back to 1000, index falls then climbs, do you just not have the exact opposite and in this case the inverse etf saves your bacon?
I am on the phone but a quick excel spreadsheet run would demonstrate this in no time

 

[frugal.rock]

Was wondering how you uninstalled the platform? Through the program uninstaller or Windows/Control Panel..
Was thinking maybe either way, you have some registry entries/orphans (comm server?) remaining from previous install. Installer tries to install but sees entries already there, aborts?
Try regedit and look for pertinent entries on the working install (laptop), then do the same on desktop, might find some entries that need a massage (delete). Be careful though!
Lots of dust, heat, chips fail usually temporarily from the heat. Bit like brake fade on a car.
Other scenario, dry solder joints on circuitry. Bit of movement can create closed circuit again...for a while. Would suggest actual card fingers are goldfingers as would the card slot be. Corrosion/oxidation possible from crappy gold alloys and dissimilar metals but would be visible if this was the case.
Good luck.

 

[fergee]

P2 This is a fantastic thread thank you! I will be following this from now on.
Just wanted to know your views on your FX risk are you hedging or taking a view on the AUD?

 

[qldfrog]

Was wondering how you uninstalled the platform? Through the program uninstaller or Windows/Control Panel..
Was thinking maybe either way, you have some registry entries/orphans (comm server?) remaining from previous install. Installer tries to install but sees entries already there, aborts?
Try regedit and look for pertinent entries on the working install (laptop), then do the same on desktop, might find some entries that need a massage (delete). Be careful though!
Lots of dust, heat, chips fail usually temporarily from the heat. Bit like brake fade on a car.
Other scenario, dry solder joints on circuitry. Bit of movement can create closed circuit again...for a while. Would suggest actual card fingers are goldfingers as would the card slot be. Corrosion/oxidation possible from crappy gold alloys and dissimilar metals but would be visible if this was the case.
Good luck.

Last but not least ensure your motherboard battery is ok, does not cost much to ensure that cell battery is replaced as part of your air dusting cleaning

 

[peter2]

Thanks for all the follow up suggestions re the desktop. Everything seems to be OK and working. I've started to re-create the Tradestation workspaces which will take quite some time.

re: FX movements. I'm not concerned by this. The aim is to earn lots of USD first.

re: ETF vs benchmarks. I'm aware that very few ETF's match their benchmarks and this is mainly due to their mgt fees. The more exotic the ETF the higher the mgt fee. Out of hours market movement also is a cause for under performance. This might only be of concern if you're planing to hold an ETF for years. No such concerns when trading short term swings.

The focus for this thread and my others will be on the trading routine.

 

[peter2]

The previous evening I started an index trade (FTSE100) and even placed a pyramid order to buy if it goes higher. I sat looking at the ticks and the trade wasn't looking too good (-0.5R). Should I bail now? I made a good decision to go for a walk. Back from the walk I forgot about the open trade and watched some telly. Going to the office I remembered the trade, well a good surprise, price rallied, took out my additional order, hit T1 and was very close to T2. I grabbed the +2.9R and prepared for the US session.

The recent pull-backs have provided a few setups in the markets I'm watching for this thread. After the sudden rally in gold (that took me by surprise while I was sleeping) I anticipated a pull-back soon. The opp was to short gold or buy the inverse gold ETF. DUST is in our list just for this opportunity.

The trigger was the BO-NH at 5.80. The 123L setup can be seen on the 1hr chart. This setup is described in our TP. The only tricky bit with swing trading smaller time frame charts, hoping to have them last a few more days, is the placement of the iSL. Normally I'd place it below the #3 HL point on the daily chart (conservative) but on this occasion I used the the #3 point on the 1hr chart. This is tricky because the market can reverse and knock you out of the trade quickly. I decided to use the 1hr chart as the sentiment for gold was quite negative after the Iranian missiles released most of the tension in the issue. At the EOD this seemed like a good decision.



Next day, I see the trade is +1.6R and looking for more. I raised the exit trigger to lock in the +1R and you know what happens next. Yep, the market came down and knocked me out of the trade by 0.01 then reversed and headed higher.



That damn market! Hardly, it's my bad habit of micro-managing the trade.
Did I learn my lesson about not fiddling with the trade provided by the market on the previous evening No.

 

[barney]

(that took me by surprise while I was sleeping)

So you do sleep … sometimes??

 

[peter2]

Gold wasn't the only market that provided an opportunity to get back into the bullish US index. Just about all the indices formed similar setups to that of DUST. I took another trade in TQQQ. Considered SPXL and LABU but thought that NDQ was stronger and newer new ATHs.



The Nasdaq market is too volatile to place my iSL below the 1hr HL and I selected a level further down (88.50). This morning's gap up took the trade higher to +1.3R and I raised the TS above BE (91.50). Now just before I retire for the night I see that the market has traded sideways. It will most likely drift lower. Do I want to leave the TS at BE? I can't. I'm such a tight ar$e and I've raised it to below 94. This locks in another +1R result should the market trade down to my exit stop.

Why do I keep micromanaging most of my trades? This is me. We all have our trading quirks.

The lesson for the beginning traders is to recognise your own trading quirks and consider if they're damaging your results. If they are, like "failing to pull the trigger" then the problem most be overcome or minimised.

I can justify why I put up with my quirks, but as we know, that's just my rational mind making up a story to explain my emotional knee jerk actions of micro-managing to avoid risk.

 

[peter2]

The market took me out soon after I posted.

Was my moving the TS a good thing or bad? I don't know. I'll look for the next opportunity tomorrow.

 

[qldfrog]

I definitively would not be suited to that trading.and this knowledge is priceless

 

[peter2]

After a few quiet days with the US markets making new all time highs, we're into a few trades.

XLV: Healthcare ETF.


The Russell smaller cap sector lags the large caps (SPY) and tech (QQQ) but is trying to catch up.

TNA ETF:

 

[peter2]

On our ETF watch list is MJ ( Cannabis sector). This has been hard hit in 2019 and I've been waiting for signs of life. The last two days has provided it. MJ has been going sideways for a while with occasional bullish days.


I've also been watching the main cannabis stocks in this ETF (CGC. CRON, TLRY). Bingo.
We're into a BO on CGC.

 

[peter2]

US trade book update: