Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

OXR - Oxiana Limited

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bvbfan said:
estimated profit = 412,582,500
Click to expand...

Just checking the calculations and the numbers were based on USD and not converted to AUD

So with current rates around 75 that would be about $550 million AUD

Only the 2nd time I've shorted OXR in 5 years and looks like I'll be hurting monday, good thing it was only a partial hedge on my large long position
 
did anybody notice how much sepon gold costs have increased.... in the UK roadshow presentation, half yearly results till dec31 showed sepon gold costs to be US$201

in the latest 1Q2006 production figures, costs at sepon were US$350/oz...

did any1 here go to agm and pose this question to OH or any thoughts on this?

Thats 80% increase in costs and it really hurt (the extent) of their profitability for last quarter...
 
Right place, right time for miner
Date : 12/02/2006
Reporter: Luisa Saccotelli

LUISA SACCOTELLI: When it comes to gold digging, there are few Australian mining outfits which have grown as fast as Oxiana. The company alchemy is a mix of right place, right time but also boss Owen Hegarty's preparedness to go where others haven't - in his case, a remote Communist controlled valley without roads or access to reliable communication to the outside world.

OWEN HEGARTY: I have been in this fortunate position of being in charge of a company that has grown very substantially from a few million dollars up to a small number of billions, I suppose. People talk about going from about 10 cents to $2 so that is a 20 bagger in the last three or four years.

LUISA SACCOTELLI: Owen Hegarty was a 20-year career mining man with Rio Tinto up until the late 1990s when the company passed up on gold and copper deposits in Laos. Judged too small, that wasn't the only problem.

OWEN HEGARTY: You had Asia falling over, you had copper gold prices falling over and the world was going into recession. Investment dollars were very hard to come by. Here we were it was a somewhat isolated area, very little infrastructure, a monsoonal climate. There was no mining industry. The first question about Laos was, where is it? And then, of course, who is in charge up there?

LUISA SACCOTELLI: The answer to the reluctant money men was the Communists in a government of former freedom fighters.

OWEN HEGARTY: The leaders of the present government, some of those people were the cave-dwelling freedom fighters nationalists who saw off the Americans and others during the second Indo-China conflict. So that has been their heritage.

LUISA SACCOTELLI: None of the country risk issues deterred Hegarty.

OWEN HEGARTY: The Sepon project is amazing in that whole mineral field is something I have never seen before in my life. A combination of copper and gold at the surface, very high grade, oodles of upside and one of the things I suppose that we did was ensure that we had a consistent story, consistent people and meet up with all the district chiefs and so on, understand their position, respect the fact that it's their property, it's their valley, it's their livelihoods that you are changing forever.

LUISA SACCOTELLI: Hegarty credits that approach with earning Oxiana its social licence to work in the valley. But first came the hunt for $20 million to buy a 80 per cent stake in the mine.

OWEN HEGARTY: Wearing out shoe leather, running around looking to put money together up and down Collins Street here and across in London and in New York and various other places. You pack your bag, you put your presentation away and move on to the next one. That is I say to people as we left the building, there was not a lot of difference between being shown out and left out.

LUISA SACCOTELLI: Two years later with gold and copper coming out of the ground, Oxiana bought out the rest of the deposits for $US80 million.

OWEN HEGARTY: Plenty of people told us we would never be able to raise the money to build the Sepon under any circumstances and, not only that, to finance these operations, these mines, you are going to have to hedge your copper or hedge your gold. We are anti-hedgers. We believe we have had that gene removed from our DNA. We think we have seen too many companies go broke, go belly up by hedging. We think it's far too complicated for us anyway. We like to keep it nice and simple.

LUISA SACCOTELLI: Gold is now at its highest price in 25 years. Oxiana has been lucky. As commodities have boomed so have its market appeal. Full-year earnings are tipped to hit 75 million, up from a loss of 2 million the year before. Oxiana is trading on a price to earnings ratio of eight. There is also a second mine, Western Australia's Golden Grove, with a third still in feasibility, South Australia's Prominent Hill. The idea is to fill the mid-cap market gap. It is all going Oxiana's way now but it could all unravel.

OWEN HEGARTY: As soon as commodity prices pop up you find there are plenty of analysts out there looking for them to pop down very soon. So there is a few of them out there crying wolf. But our strategy is to be in low cost, high yield, high margin operations.

LUISA SACCOTELLI: But perhaps a bigger threat is another symptom of the current gold fever - a rash of hostile takeovers has broken out and the big and inquisitive miner Xstrata is said to be scratching around. With a healthy personal stake in Oxiana worth upwards of $50 million, Hegarty would walk away wealthy either way but he has invested a lot of emotional capital as well.

OWEN HEGARTY: Of course we have our defences there, but the best defensive against takeover is optimising your share price.

ALAN KOHLER: Luisa Saccotelli reporting.

http://www.abc.net.au/insidebusiness/content/2006/s1567944.htm
http://www.abc.net.au/reslib/200602/r72167_201099.asx
 
I won't disagree.

Up 8.3% since buying in a couple of days ago, and I bought my maximum-size parcel (ie. what I've set as a maximum as part of my system).

Looking good at this moment :)

GP
 
What's too expensive for a stellar stock like this, however I would wait for a pull-back!
PS my opinion only of course...
 
who can guess where oxr is going, we're in uncharted terrotory now, all i know is that i'm still holding, was some resistance just under 3.00 but broke thru on well above average volume,but right now more than happy to hold.porkpie :) :(
 
laurie said:
TOE may drag it down a bit!

cheers laurie
Click to expand...
Over a billion shares on issue.
TOE can cut either way - medium term down, and longer term up.

I think copper, zinc, silver and gold (not in that order) prices will move the stock as most holders have factored in TOE and will just let it ride.

Copper prices are likely to suffer a major correction in the week as its price is over-inflated via thin trade in a highly speculatively driven market.
As they say, keep some powder dry for the dips. Only the very brave or very foolish would rush OXR at the moment.

disclosure - I hold a fair few OXR but nil TOE
 
ah i meant to post this earlier today. Oxiana was a great buy this morning -> DRP discount news. Seems to be about the only thing holding the "Ox" back.

Disclosure> I hold.
 
Caliente said:
ah i meant to post this earlier today. Oxiana was a great buy this morning -> DRP discount news. Seems to be about the only thing holding the "Ox" back.
Click to expand...
Caliente
Am looking at Kitcometals right now and it seems that copper is up around 4% so far, with other base metals shaking off yesterday's loss.
Maybe those that wanted the Ox also wanted a real bargain: Don't look like it's on the horizon.
 
copper up by 15% now and zinc by 3% and gold marginally...

this rebound will be sweet

good thing i topped by OXR and KZL today... im a bit worried about what interest rate rise on tuesday (if it happens) would do to the market though in the short term....
 
nizar said:
copper up by 15% now and zinc by 3% and gold marginally...

this rebound will be sweet

good thing i topped by OXR and KZL today... im a bit worried about what interest rate rise on tuesday (if it happens) would do to the market though in the short term....
Click to expand...

yeah, btw has kitco mean fixed yet?

http://www.kitcometals.com/

thx

MS
 
michael_selway said:
yeah, btw has kitco mean fixed yet?

http://www.kitcometals.com/

thx

MS
Click to expand...

yeh im on there now, copper up 16% and zinc 3.6%...

it seems to be working fine

actually i just saw this msg:

IMPORTANT:
Due to technical difficulties pricing being received is incorrect. We are currently working on the issue and anticipate resolution shortly. We apologize for the inconvenience and appreciate your patience.

so maybe not..
 
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