OXR - Oxiana Limited

[nizar]

I'm afraid the "explosion of base metal prices" does not explian OXR continued, comparative outperformance......

WHy not? Care to elaborate...

COpper/ZInc/Gold are the commodites in which OXR derives earnings, when these go up, OXR can earn more money since they are unhedged.... and the sp goes up....

 

[redandgreen]

i happen to believe that there is a hype (speculative element ) in the SP that may well relate to OXR 24% interest in TOE. ( raised previously in this thread).

 

[laurie]

Have a look at the projected EPS!! it is way undervalued IMHO $3+

cheers laurie

 

[nizar]

Yes Laurie i agree, 2mrw i think maybe time for a top-up

If I wait for a pull-back, maybe ill be waiting a while...

 

[Knobby22]

The rise has been amazing. Even rose today on a down day.
The speed has been a bit scary. There has to be a consolidation phase soon.

 

[michael_selway]

Have a look at the projected EPS!! it is way undervalued IMHO $3+

cheers laurie

Laurie, hold on a sec, where did u get your figures? Form Comsec

OXR - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2005 2006 2007 2008
EPS 5.6 21.9 16.4 13.1
DPS -- 2.0 2.0 3.0

You can see 2007 onwards they forecast a fall in prices (copper presumably)

thx

MS

 

[laurie]

Laurie, hold on a sec, where did u get your figures? Form Comsec

Maths worked out in my head from 2005 results 06-07 profits reported to be approx $480million if not more as full year from Golden Grove will have an impact on the final result then again I may well be totally wrong which does not change my out look of OXR almost made the $3 mark yesterday so I wasn't the only one thinking it was undervalued

cheers laurie

 

[bvbfan]

2007 the will be a large expense for the construction of Prominent Hill that will effect the earnings for 2007 possibly 2008, then the production should add to earnings in 2009
If the copper and gold prices stay at the forecast levels which I think a majority of analysts are using around $1.80 certainly under $2/lb

 

[laurie]

2007 the will be a large expense for the construction of Prominent Hill that will effect the earnings for 2007 possibly 2008

That depends where the money comes from!!

cheers laurie

 

[redandgreen]

UBS rates the stock as Buy 2, revised price target $3
loooking good........

 

[bvbfan]

Prominent Hill will be debt funded as far as I know, but with the high prices for Zn and Copper they may not need that much debt.

I think costs were about $550million US but that may increase with cost increases in raw materials


Earnings this year for OXR could be close to $500million AUD and similar for 2007 if commodities prices stay at these levels or rise

 

[nizar]

I had a look at my mates Broker report from Citigroup...

OXR 2006e and 2007e have been increased by 44.1% and 70.0% respectively due to recent commodity price movements and currency fluctuations

(Sorry cant post link it was hard copy)

 

[HELLAS09]

OXR is a very sore spot for me.

I bought the stock not even 2 years ago at 99 cents and sold out at 85 cents...YES at a loss...my biggest mistake I rushed out as I needed the $$ for my wedding, but I still had like 4 months to hold off but thought 'hey minimise my losses'...I went against ALL advice to 'HOLD' as they'll take off soon GRRR.

Now look at them Sorry had to add my biatch in here.

 

[laurie]

HELLAS09
Don't be harsh on yourself you must have got on at near the same time as I did .92c you have to learn to be PATIENCE I found out the hard way also

cheers laurie

 

[michael_selway]

I had a look at my mates Broker report from Citigroup...

OXR 2006e and 2007e have been increased by 44.1% and 70.0% respectively due to recent commodity price movements and currency fluctuations

(Sorry cant post link it was hard copy)

Hehe, can you please just post their forecast 2006, 2007, 2008 EPS

thx

MS

 

[kevo]

It's been upgraded again by Macquarie.
http://kontentkonsult.com/blog/2006/04/macquarie_are_we_being_too_con_1.html
www.kontentkonsult.com

It will be $5.00 bucks before you know it..

 

[Knobby22]

I am just stunned as to the continuing copper price rise.

I always thought Oxiana was a good company but it is truly exceeding my expectations.

The cashflow is such that they can continue developing their other fields.

 

[rederob]

I am just stunned as to the continuing copper price rise.

Me too, and I have been following/studying this very closely for a few years now.
There is a chance that zinc will catch up to copper by 2008 due to its price inelasticity.
I might have to go overweight in my already overweight commodity exposure to add more KZL.
I learned that their hedge exposure to copper and lead will have largely unwound by mid year, giving them spot prices for most of the next financial year.
KZL do not hedge zinc and presently have a margin in excess of a dollar per pound: that's 23,000 tonnes for this half year multiplied by 2,200 pounds multiplied by a dollar or so - compelling maths!
By way of comparison, in the 6months to December KZL produced about half the quantity of zinc anticipated this half, and received only 64cents per pound. Present zinc spot price is $1.38/lb and rising!

 

[michael_selway]

It's been upgraded again by Macquarie.
http://kontentkonsult.com/blog/2006/04/macquarie_are_we_being_too_con_1.html
www.kontentkonsult.com

It will be $5.00 bucks before you know it..

Thanks mate, very interesting

The most significant change (given its importance to both the base metals complex and equities) is the ~50% increase to MRE's copper price forecasts for 2007 and 2008, which now exceeds US$2.00/lb until end 2008. Those issues have had a substantial impact on MRE's production forecasts, have raised the forecast concentrates deficit, and have now swung their refined market balance forecast from surplus to deficit in 2006. With stocks already extremely low, this deficit is enough to make MRE question whether there is any justification to forecast a significant pull-back in prices this year, and MRE's conclusion is that there is not. As a result, MRE have revised up their forecast average copper price for 2006 from $2.20/lb ($4850/t) to $2.54/lb ($5590/t).

MRE continue to expect virtually all of the LME zinc stocks to be run down by the end of the year, and the zinc market to be displaying all the signs of a shortage market – including prices moving to record highs. Copper is an interesting case study for those looking at possible price outcomes for zinc – in copper, prices have gone higher than we would ever have imagined – simply because there has just not been enough to go around. In zinc it is difficult to say just how high prices could go in a real shortage situation. MRE do not believe there will be significant price-related substitution out of zinc in the galvanised steel market.

 

[laurie]

Oxiana is IMHO in "No Mans Land" it's surley must be eyed by Xstrata and the quicker it can get to $5+ the better it is able to fend off being a target! right now it has to be a steal at the present price to it's future EPS if it reaches $5 then Xstrata would have to fork out close to $6.5-----> $7

cheers laurie