OXR - Oxiana Limited

[snapper_man]

Some great figures flying around, 100 year mine lives. $US2,000 billion company valuations!

How do you come to $50 million NPV for PH?

Can someone post a copy of the Citibank report?

 

[rederob]

BHPB is bringing on 380,000 tonnes of Cu from Spence and Escondida Norte this year.

Escondida Norte came online in late 2005 and its production figures are integrated into Escondida proper.
Spence may come online in December this year, but certainly will be up and running to ramp up to 200k/year later on.

Ivanhoe own Oyu Tolgoi and not much else. Their market cap is >US$2000B.

Oyu Tolgoi may be in production late 2008, but more likely in 2009.

you have confused project risk with sovereign risk

Interesting! The project is going ahead, so the risk issues must have been resolved. OXR have not needed to go cap in hand to the market to finance this $750m project

Valuation models do reflect the expectations around the current price - it will go down.

Valuation models are always extremely conservitive. If they were not then the share prices of these companies would never increase as their valuations would not have changed.

every mining project in the world has blown out ???

Not sure of your point here. Are you saying that only PH has cost overruns?
I would have thought that the additional costs through higher energy, materials and wages, were relatively universally felt. The advantage OXR has over other greenfield producers that are yet to commit is that OXR has realistically costed its PH project, has now got it underway, and still estimates its copper cash cost as 73cents/lb.

By the way, Frontier and Lumwana are the other large scale projects you might have named that are expected to produce copper some time next year.

 

[haemitite]

You haven't refuted any of my comments that PH is a smallish project that is now marginal after capex blowouts.

When I got to this line I realised that there was little point in continuing to attempt a logical and factual discussion with you

Valuation models are always extremely conservitive. If they were not then the share prices of these companies would never increase as their valuations would not have changed.might have named that are expected to produce copper some time next year.

simply staggering.

snapperman, As you point out below the IVN valuation should have been listed as >US2000M. thx

 

[dubiousinfo]

haemitite,

While you were expousing your views on the poor state of OXR today, it went up over 4%.

If you still feel it is in such poor shape despite rederob's comments (IMHO he made the better case), then maybe you should sell. Judging by todays volume (10mil), there are plenty of investors ready to take the shares off your hands.

 

[rederob]

You haven't refuted any of my comments that PH is a smallish project that is now marginal after capex blowouts.

When I got to this line I realised that there was little point in continuing to attempt a logical and factual discussion with you
simply staggering.

I think this cuts both ways.
I said PH was world class: It is by every standard used in mining industry analysis.
You showed it was small by what comparison?
Only a few comaparably large projects come on line each year. Yet dozens of smaller ones come and go.
I won't say you know diddly squat, but what you think you know is not a great deal of use to anyone investing or trading.
Your harping on about capex blowouts and project valuations is, frankly, just harping on.
The project has got underway so you can post back in a few years time and claim whatever rightful ground you choose: Until then, it's a bit of a guessing game as to what copper prices will be.
As I said, if we all relied on the valuations of bean counters we would not invest in mining equities because they we always correctly priced.
Luckily I believe their are fairies in the bottom of the garden, too.
If you think PH is small, you should have looked at Ertsberg back in the '60's.
In fact the number of operational mines that never added to their resource base after commissioning is negligible.
PH is "open" at depth and OXR will continue an active drilling program to confirm the physical limits of the copper/gold resource.

 

[haemitite]

haemitite,

While you were expousing your views on the poor state of OXR today, it went up over 4%.

If you still feel it is in such poor shape despite rederob's comments (IMHO he made the better case), then maybe you should sell. Judging by todays volume (10mil), there are plenty of investors ready to take the shares off your hands.

To be fair, I was expressing my views on PH - a small (in my viewpoint, minute) part of the OXR story. I'm more worried about the Sepon gold trend.

 

[bvbfan]

I'm more worried about the Sepon gold trend.

Ok, what's the issue here that is a worry?
The higher costs on a commodity that only makes up about 15% of earnings?

 

[rederob]

By now haemitite should have sold his OXR in a fit of depression over PH's lack of reserves and weak valuation.
That will give mug punters a chance to top up before it rips up the charts again.
Overnight copper reaped its biggest daily gain in yonks, while gold cranked up another $10 to lie at $638 this morning.
I expect OXR will be the best performing stock on the ASX this week, and probably this month if commodities run to their usual pricing pattern.

 

[haemitite]

By now haemitite should have sold his OXR in a fit of depression over PH's lack of reserves and weak valuation.
That will give mug punters a chance to top up before it rips up the charts again.
Overnight copper reaped its biggest daily gain in yonks, while gold cranked up another $10 to lie at $638 this morning.
I expect OXR will be the best performing stock on the ASX this week, and probably this month if commodities run to their usual pricing pattern.

Well for the time bring I'm still holding my 16,000 OXR .......

Falling in love with a stock is the worst possible sin an investor can make. When you start filtering information selectively, and the discussion becomes qualitative rather than quantitative its downright ugly

I was interested to see that dubiousinfo thought that you made the better case, interesting because I'm yet to see you provide anything factual on PH other than a grade equivalent comment direct from the OXR website.

But his comments did re-inforce to me that the bulk of people here will be OXR investors that only want to hear the good news about the stock. So rederob I'll leave you be in your world where you keep talking up the OXR price.

<unsubscribing from this thread. Happy to discuss OXR with anyone by PM>

 

[rederob]

Well for the time bring I'm still holding my 16,000 OXR .......

Falling in love with a stock is the worst possible sin an investor can make. When you start filtering information selectively, and the discussion becomes qualitative rather than quantitative its downright ugly

I was interested to see that dubiousinfo thought that you made the better case, interesting because I'm yet to see you provide anything factual on PH other than a grade equivalent comment direct from the OXR website.

But his comments did re-inforce to me that the bulk of people here will be OXR investors that only want to hear the good news about the stock. So rederob I'll leave you be in your world where you keep talking up the OXR price.

<unsubscribing from this thread. Happy to discuss OXR with anyone by PM>

Can't take the heat so gets out of the kitchen!
You need to take care, haemitite, about assuming what people fall in love with.
I have been accumulating OXR for 3 years and it is my largest holding by far - almost 50,000 shares at an average $1.39.
Your statement about selective filtering of information is based on what, exactly?
Some of your "facts" were a little off the mark, while you are relying on a valuation for OXR's PH from a company that does not specialise in the mining sector.
I am not aware of this thread getting "ugly" anywhere, and you are welcome to post in defence of your statements, without trying to sidestep matters.
In relation to anything factual about PH, what do you want?
Until the company is producing from PH we are all guessing about the price of copper and gold. By the way, while the chance of copper falling a touch by 2008 is strong, the chance of gold rising further is, perhaps, stronger. Anyone costing copper/gold plays will know that gold will be a stronger determinant of profitability than copper: Overnight the price of gold per ounce increased by almost twice the prevailing price of copper per pound.
In relation to PH, you made claims suggesting it was not world class and backed up your statements with no facts all. Nizar and I have added enough information on OXR recently to get a reasonble idea of the company.
If I thought OXR was a crappy stock to hold, I would say so. If I thought it should be sold now to take a profit, I would say so.
In the commodity sector I think the potential upside of OXR has a long way to go, and is far better than the majority of its industry peers.
It is producing 3 of the stronger performing metals in zinc, copper, and gold in robust quantities.
Just for the record, my Comsec holdings are below:

 

[michael_selway]

Just for the record, my Comsec holdings are below:

Thanks, just wondering what makes up the "All Others - 34%"

Thx

MS

 

[dubiousinfo]

Interesting to note that OXR has risen by nearly 8% since this discusion started on 4 Sept.

As for falling in love with the stock, while I do like the performance of OXR, I would never let it stay the night. LOL :

No offence haemitite, but your arguments to date have lacked substance & facts.

 

[rederob]

Thanks, just wondering what makes up the "All Others - 34%"
Thx
MS

MS
Today I have 37 separate holdings, mostly FPOs but a few with free attaching options, such as MMNO.
I also have holdings that are not on Comsec, including AMP, BSL, CBA, SUN and TLS (first tranche).
I intend to lighten up my minerals expsoure at end October, unless commodities go for another run north.
I anticipate OXR breaching $4 this year, and expect the present run to be very strong.

 

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

MS
Today I have 37 separate holdings, mostly FPOs but a few with free attaching options, such as MMNO.
I also have holdings that are not on Comsec, including AMP, BSL, CBA, SUN and TLS (first tranche).
I intend to lighten up my minerals expsoure at end October, unless commodities go for another run north.
I anticipate OXR breaching $4 this year, and expect the present run to be very strong.

Agree with you Rob, present run will pass $3.50.
OXR are a bit of a dog though.

 

[snapper_man]

Well this dog still has plenty of wag in its tail. Mr freeballing what stocks do you consider 'non dog'. Hurry my finger is poised over the 'buy' button.
Haemitite had a couple of valid points including not falling in love with a stock. Personally I've gone well beyond that and little Oxiana is expected next month. Unfortunately Haemites figures did not add up or were explained.
Rederob dont get too excited about a spike in Cu and Zinc, better for the metals market to enter a long consistent stage.

 

[MalteseBull]

Looks like the ox is headed towards $4

 

[rederob]

Rederob dont get too excited about a spike in Cu and Zinc, better for the metals market to enter a long consistent stage.

snapper
I think if you check out the charts posted in the Morning Metals Commentary at this site you will see that we have had almost 4 months of consolidation:
http://www.manmetals.com/research/index.asp
I expect copper to reclaim its early year highs and zinc to go through the roof in the next few months.
I say these things because if I get them wrong, the people that think I am talking rubbish can throw it back at me.
I don't get commodities wrong in terms of trend, but getting the timing right is a bit harder.

Overnight copper hit consecutive "buy stops" as technical traders were caught out by the size of the move upwards.
The present base metals breakout typically runs for 2-3 days before a big "hit" as profit takers leave the market to cool down.
I anticipate a selldown Friday night so decks are cleared for the next week.
LME inventories will be closely scanned this week as consumers restock ahead of ramping up their production facilities. Typically we need to see cancelled warrants perk up; and if they do we might see more consolidations at level rather than big dips in price.

In the specific case of OXR, it was a buy last week, and is still a buy.

 

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

Well this dog still has plenty of wag in its tail. Mr freeballing what stocks do you consider 'non dog'. Hurry my finger is poised over the 'buy' button.
Haemitite had a couple of valid points including not falling in love with a stock. Personally I've gone well beyond that and little Oxiana is expected next month. Unfortunately Haemites figures did not add up or were explained.
Rederob dont get too excited about a spike in Cu and Zinc, better for the metals market to enter a long consistent stage.

They are a dog, in the fact their SP is fair value, fundamentally.

I considered KZL & MRE non dogs, a few months back. In the sense that their SP didn't reflect their fundamentals. This has been proven true in their current SP.

MRE has a lot of upside to come, they've ironed out the wrinkles with the acid plant, production has increased and should hit full production in the next few months. If nickle spot prices remain high, their next half earnings will be a humper. I will drop my pants if MRE arn't $7 by April.

Rederob considers SMY a dog. I on the other hand like them. They remind me of KZL in the early days, just need to eat into their hedge book a bit more.Fundamentally I think they have the best future out of any stock in the materials sector.

Anyway I still say OXR is a dog, with a real slow wag>.

 

[snapper_man]

Freeballing hang onto your wetsuit zipper I dont want to be hit with a cyber moon. I'll check out MRE and SMY. Held onto Oxiana now for a long time now. Every time someone has told me to get out they have gone up.
Rederob, the metals prediction game is very complex and i have pretty much given up on it. If CU and zinc average what they have since 30 June for the rest of the year, Oxiana should crack in aroud 80 - 120m more than 1st half. That will buy a few extra smackos for the dog.

 

[michael_selway]

Freeballing hang onto your wetsuit zipper I dont want to be hit with a cyber moon. I'll check out MRE and SMY. Held onto Oxiana now for a long time now. Every time someone has told me to get out they have gone up.
Rederob, the metals prediction game is very complex and i have pretty much given up on it. If CU and zinc average what they have since 30 June for the rest of the year, Oxiana should crack in aroud 80 - 120m more than 1st half. That will buy a few extra smackos for the dog.

the difference i think is whther u think whther Copper is bullish or bearish?

Im bearish on it at current prices, but things may change?

thx

MS