OSH - Oil Search

Sean K · 16 March 2007

OSH still in recovery mode from the PNG fallout. Looks like the market has totally factored this into the sp now and is returning to favour. Higher lows since Sep last year. Breaking these resistance lines will be tough, especially with the market volatility and POI going no where. MACD confirming that momentum is up and just about to break zero line is positive. I see it getting to the green circle on this current trajectory, but will need POI to 65 or the discovery of an elephant to get through....Having said that, I'm still waiting for the market to sort itself out before I buy another dip.

(holding)

nomore4s · 28 March 2007

With the price of oil soaring at the moment, this is starting to look like it wants to break out. Has a bit of resistance to overcome and will probably need a bit of vol to do it. One to watch as long as oil stays high.

I don't hold.

theasxgorilla · 29 March 2007

I like this share right now for all the reasons your just mentioned and all this LNG-cartel talk might come into play.

Alas, I did a wave count on it. This is my least favourite part with Elliott Wave...it can get in a the way of a perfectly good trade

Sean K · 29 March 2007

theasxgorilla said:
Alas, I did a wave count on it. This is my least favourite part with Elliott Wave...it can get in a the way of a perfectly good trade

Golly Magilla, I have no idea how you have put that count in there. Looks all over the place to me. You drinking too much I feel. LOL. Is that an automated count, or your own judgement?

The Mint Man · 29 March 2007

Im long term on this one and so far Im very happy with it. Got in at $3.25 so Im up about 14% ATM. Plan is to hold at least until 2010..... if it keeps going like this it will doulble by then.

theasxgorilla · 29 March 2007

I may have been drinking at the time, but I've since checked it when 100% sober and the only questionable part I can see is the expanded flat count that I have in there for the highest degree wave 4 (4, circled). And if you convert it to a line chart (which IMO is completely valid for EW, particulary on individual shares of lower liquidity), then we get a triangle...

All other counts are subdivisions of the higher degree wave 3. I don't believe that I've violated any rules and haven't bothered to check any guidelines ie. fibbonaci relationships between waves etc...feel free to propose an alternative count.

Sean K · 29 March 2007

theasxgorilla said:
I may have been drinking at the time, but I've since checked it when 100% sober and the only questionable part I can see is the expanded flat count that I have in there for the highest degree wave 4 (4, circled). And if you convert it to a line chart (which IMO is completely valid for EW, particulary on individual shares of lower liquidity), then we get a triangle...

All other counts are subdivisions of the higher degree wave 3. I don't believe that I've violated any rules and haven't bothered to check any guidelines ie. fibbonaci relationships between waves etc...feel free to propose an alternative count.

Could your last ABC, finish at your A, and this last move up be the start of a 12345? Maybe I'm just being hopeful that this is the start of a run and seeing what I want? Does look all good to me, but I'm very newbie at EW.

theasxgorilla · 29 March 2007

Why not? Works for me. We're headed for the highest weekly close in about 8 months...positive sign...carry on!

Sean K · 29 March 2007

As per my chart at the top, I see breaking though 3.75 ish to be hard yakka. Having said that, the other indicators are telling me momentum is UP. Maybe we rely on Iran keeping those sailors for a few more days.

It's Snake Pliskin · 29 March 2007

Kennas,
Eyeballing your chart I agree with your prognosis for EW counting. Just running a cursory glance I see it going up according to the theory. But I am a total EW newbie, so my opinion doesn't mean anything in the big scheme of things.
Just remember EW is not applicable to everything, so those trend lines may be telling something.
Cheers.

theasxgorilla · 29 March 2007

IS there an Elliott Wave guru in the house who'd like to pick this to bits for us self-confessed amateurs?

It's Snake Pliskin · 29 March 2007

theasxgorilla said:
IS there an Elliott Wave guru in the house who'd like to pick this to bits for us self-confessed amateurs?

Mr Gorilla,
I think they have all left.
Quite a pity.
Cheers
Snake

theasxgorilla · 30 March 2007

It's Snake Pliskin said:
Mr Gorilla,
I think they have all left.
Quite a pity.
Cheers
Snake

Snake, in the absence of true professionals, feel free to throw up a wave count...can't hurt...we've managed 2 variations so far...if there are more possibilities it'll help us all to know.

chops_a_must · 30 March 2007

theasxgorilla said:
Snake, in the absence of true professionals, feel free to throw up a wave count...can't hurt...we've managed 2 variations so far...if there are more possibilities it'll help us all to know.

It looks like a complex wave 4 setup. :

It's Snake Pliskin · 30 March 2007

theasxgorilla said:
Snake, in the absence of true professionals, feel free to throw up a wave count...can't hurt...we've managed 2 variations so far...if there are more possibilities it'll help us all to know.

ASXGorilla,

Excusing the short wave 3, which breaks the rules, it looks like a 5th wave failure unfolding.

Abiding by the rules, wave 3 the longest, it's the same
Maybe this is voodoo after all. Maybe it is one of the 65% unreadable using EW.

In something I have researched recently, an EW variant, it is wave 5, no doubt.
Cheers

theasxgorilla · 30 March 2007

It's Snake Pliskin said:
ASXGorilla,

Excusing the short wave 3, which breaks the rules, it looks like a 5th wave failure unfolding.

Abiding by the rules, wave 3 the longest, it's the same
Maybe this is voodoo after all. Maybe it is one of the 65% unreadable using EW.

In something I have researched recently, an EW variant, it is wave 5, no doubt.
Cheers

Short wave 3 on your chart or mine? In my count all of my wave 3s are the longest waves.

I find all of OSH quite readable up until the low in September 06. After this point on a daily chart, I'm struggling to determine the lower degree wave counts...which makes me lean toward a continuing corrective phase, hence my original count which says this is a B, and C is yet to come....but once you switch to a weekly line chart the 5-wave downward sloping consolidation pattern between Oct and Dec 06 is quite apparent...and this is a pattern often found in Wave 2...so I'm happy enough to revise the count and say that A-B-C may have terminated back in Sept 06 and we're resuming upward impulse activity.

Going forward, price activity below $3.57 is bad, below $3.19 is worse and below $3.01 will validate the original count.

Self confessed amateur.

The ASX Gorilla.

It's Snake Pliskin · 31 March 2007

theasxgorilla said:
Short wave 3 on your chart or mine? In my count all of my wave 3s are the longest waves.

I find all of OSH quite readable up until the low in September 06. After this point on a daily chart, I'm struggling to determine the lower degree wave counts...which makes me lean toward a continuing corrective phase, hence my original count which says this is a B, and C is yet to come....but once you switch to a weekly line chart the 5-wave downward sloping consolidation pattern between Oct and Dec 06 is quite apparent...and this is a pattern often found in Wave 2...so I'm happy enough to revise the count and say that A-B-C may have terminated back in Sept 06 and we're resuming upward impulse activity.

Going forward, price activity below $3.57 is bad, below $3.19 is worse and below $3.01 will validate the original count.

Self confessed amateur.

The ASX Gorilla.

Mr Gorilla,
I used Kennas's chart so my comments may not be useful. Still EW novice with little knowledge of it.
Cheers
Snake

The Mint Man · 9 May 2007

Question,
What is it going to take to get OSH moving up?
Looking at the chart it has just been doing a whole lot of up and down for the last couple of months, with the range becoming tighter and tighter.
I am interested in hearing all of your views.

Cheers

Sean K · 9 May 2007

The Mint Man said:
Question,
What is it going to take to get OSH moving up?
Looking at the chart it has just been doing a whole lot of up and down for the last couple of months, with the range becoming tighter and tighter.
I am interested in hearing all of your views.

Cheers

Lots of resistance at $3.75. A brick wall even. Still, looks to be in an ascending triangle. Should break up. Could put this in potential breakout thread probably.

The Mint Man · 9 May 2007

Thanks kennas, can always rely on you for a decent reply! However I think you meant $3.75
I will let you do the honours of putting it in the potential breakout thread.

Cheers

OSH - Oil Search

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