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Oil Stocks ready to Rally?

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Frank D

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Even though I’m bearish on the ASX at these highs, I’m getting bullish on
OIL in the 4th Quarter, based on this 3rd quarter consolidating pattern,
with a potential move towards $100

I would like to begin with Santos, but I would also like others to chip in
and begin to have a look at other OIL stocks to see if there are any
‘bullish’ patterns appearing now and potential breakout patterns in the 4th Quarter or September


Santos

Currently trading under the Quarterly and Monthly 50% levels.

If OIL is going to go higher, then I would like Santos to come back down
into the 50% level in September, or the same lows as August lows and
then break higher in September and continue towards $17.33.

Santos will go Ex on the 26th of this month, I would wait until then and
wait until September's levels are formed.

September needs to hold Support $ 14.06 after going ex with an
expected move towards $17.33

If support can’t hold in Sept and OIL doesn’t follow through, then downside
is Monthly lows.

Any others?
 

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Frank,

Do some research on CUE, just go have a read of the last few news releases and other information (quarterly reports).

Next month should be an absolute cracker, we have a load of new projects that are coming on line and the most recent news release confirms oil flow at Maari being 39,000 BOPD and Cue have 5% of this production. Thats only one of a hole host of exciting things they have in the pipeline.

Have a read, i think you wiull be impressed.

JW
 

Frank.. I know you care little about fundamentals, but STO is a well taunted potential takeover target so may be some invisible floor on the share price?
 

JW that's nice but I don't think it fits the criteria Frank is looking for - please refer below. Frank has asked for bullish patterns that lead to potential breakout patterns - CUE has already broken out.

Frank D said:
but I would also like others to chip in
and begin to have a look at other OIL stocks to see if there are any
‘bullish’ patterns appearing now and potential breakout patterns in the 4th Quarter or September
Click to expand...

This is also a reminder that some sort of analysis is needed for posts in this thread perferably T/A as that is what Frank has asked for and is looking for - Ramping will not be tolerated.
 
Well, i am suggesting that the recent breakout was only the beginning of a more long term bullish move for the stock. Further to that i am suggesting that recent consolidation with lower volume and a raft of exciting project about to come on line combined with higher than expected oil production from Maari will act as a catalyst. Manaia is currently being drilled and has progressed to 4200m and M2A will follow.

Throw in the Artemis project in the NWS with JV partner MEO and i reckon this is exactly the recepie that Frank is after.

There are also other oil producing project and other exploration and possible JV opportunites. Too much to write thats why i point to the annual and quarterly reports.

The recent share placement was mostly taken up by the big players and although there are more shares in the company i would argue that the available shares remains the same or very similar.

All i am saying is add it to your list of oilers to go and have a look at.

I'll come back in a few weeks and we will let the share price be the judge of things.

JW
 
CVN. I'd be interested to see your patterns on that chart Frank. For myself, looking at it from an EW point of view, I think we are getting close to a very good buying opportunity.
 
JW, skc, Johnnyg,

Thanks for the comments.

I’ll keep an eye on those over the next few weeks.

Personally I’m not big fan of Buying break outs, I prefer for stocks to pullback
into support levels and trade those levels (monthly lows or 50% levels)

If the fundamentals are good it should already be reflected in the price
action of the stock. However, the fundamentals of a stock could be crappy but still provide trading opportunties on the BUY side at certain times.


NYMEX OIL Chart…

OIL has been capped under the Yearly 50% level for the entire
3rd Quarter, so it’s ready to pop coming into the last month of this
quarter and into the 4th Quarter.

I will only be concerned if OIL is trading back around $63-65 in the last
2 weeks of September as the 3rd Quarter ends (below August lows)
 

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Damn...

I trade by scanner to take emotion out of things... Don't care what the underlying stock is as long as it's following a trend of my definition. Reading this thread just made me realise my entire long portfolio is in oil, and I had no idea...

OSH (Oil Search)
STO (Santos)
WPL (Woodside Petroleum)

To be honest, I didn't even have a clue when I bought STO that they were involved in energy...

Well, this has just become quite a large one sided gamble. I guess I'm glad oil prices rose this weekend...
 
Hi Frank,

TAP & ORG might be worth looking at. Especially liking the TAP set up, high volume breakout with a low volume retest. ORG looks to be consolidating nicely above support.

Would be interested in hearing your views if you have the time.
 
Just following up on this as promised.

When i first posted here suggesting CUE was worth a look on 22nd of August it was at 21 cents, today it opened at 25 cents and closed at 24 cents.

I still stand by my post and when this breaks 25 cents, which is currently acting as resistance i think 30 cents will come quickly.

To recap, this is what is currently happening

Maari production going full steam ahead and will bring in about 50 million revenue in the next 12 months.

Artemis with MEO in NWS off WA expecting JV announcement by 30 Sept.

Manaia drilling ahead, hydrocarbons identifeid, expect more news later this week.

Spikey Beach about to spud, JV wioth Beach Petroleum

Oyong Gas phase 2 expected to begin production this month - all gas already sold by cntract to the Indoneseans

M2A expected to begin drilling folowing completion of Manaia

Revenue continuing to come in from exisitng production facilities.

They are the main ones, hope i never forgot anything, there are other projects.............

JW
 
i know they only penny dreadfuls but add

PCL and EGO to the list .....both technical plays

maybe not everyone cup of tea BUT both charts .....dailys AND weeklies worth a view
 
NYMEX OIL

As per my previous analysis, my expectation is that OIL is
ready to ‘pop’ in September and continue higher into the 4th Quarter.

Previously I had the view that August would come down and then
continue up from September’s 50% level, and this has so far played
out, and yesterday’s price action was the 2nd confirming pattern
with the breakout of the 5-day highs.

At this stage I favour a 2-month higher high pattern into October.

However, nothing is a foregone conclusion, and if for some reason
Oil reverses down this week and takes out September 50% level, then
the entire set-up is open to Risk and the Yearly 50% level is
holding resistance.

Ideally a 2-day consolidation above $69-70, and I would favour a higher Friday close.




nomore4s said:
Hi Frank,

TAP & ORG might be worth looking at. Especially liking the TAP set up, high volume breakout with a low volume retest. ORG looks to be consolidating nicely above support.

Would be interested in hearing your views if you have the time.
Click to expand...

My apologies Nomore, I haven't revisted this thread since my last post, so
I haven't had a chance to look at those stocks.
 

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Guys you should have a look at OEX which someone has already mentioned, they are about to drill back to back wells in the temor sea which are thought to be better prospects than Sunrise (if you don't know what sunrise is look it up on google).

Currently the stock is priced at 27.0c after being at a low of 14 a couple of months back, has a big JV in the Japanese and the company is slowly emerging again out of it's slumber.

only 176,054,885 shares on the market which I hold 0.17%

 
keep an eye on adi eka and aut

all three have been in a severe economic squeeze whilst trying to prove up, under extraordinarily difficult circumstances, the "eagleford" discovery..

its likely a farmout could eventuate in the coming 2- 3 weeks, if that occurs the farm in partner needs to complete 3 laterals and put them on production immediately into two zones, the austin chalks and the eagleford shale, then the farmin partner will need to complete at least 5 new wells. all free carried for the likes of aut, eka and adi

my view is that these juniors could storm forward into a sudden flurry of operations and a very advanced forward well program would be initiated in the comign 3 months also.. the region is condensate saturated, some 300 bo per 1 mmcf gas is what the acreages will produce..

from 3 years ago when no one believed the eagleford could be anything these 3 juniors have held fast and survived near liquidation to possibly be transformed into some pretty exciting works programs in the very near future..

its possible to find some data on the play on the adi thread which thankfully the mods have allowed to continue over the years.. its also good reference for holders in azz and texon whom i think could be looking at the eagleford also in mcmullen county..
 
NYMEX OIL Futures

OIL capped at the Yearly 50% level $ 74.00

Expected September UP move should have been trading near
September’s highs @ $76.00 by Thursday…and heading towards the
Quarterly highs ($85-102) by October-November (Friday close above the Yearly 50% level)

It shouldn’t hit the 5-day highs on Friday and reverse back down into
support.

That’s not a good sign if bullish on OIL, and it’s certainly not a good sign
to be trading below the September 50% level with only 2 weeks to go
before the 3rd Quarter ends.

The only thing that OIL could be doing is retesting the break on Monday
and then continuing higher from next week’s lower Weekly open & Weekly
50% support & heading upwards into the end of the Quarter and next.

But if bullish on OIL stocks, keep an eye on the price action of OIL,
because of the Yearly 50% level (resistance), can see lower prices in the
4th Quarter if September 50% level fails.
 

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I received a rave review today about an apparent huge oil deposit off the west coast of NZ that is going to be drilled before the end of the year. Anyone know where and particularly who??

 
Wysiwyg said:
I received a rave review today about an apparent huge oil deposit off the west coast of NZ that is going to be drilled before the end of the year. Anyone know where and particularly who??
Click to expand...

Rumour has it that it is AWE
 
roland said:
Rumour has it that it is AWE
Click to expand...

care to share the info? if its rumoured, where's the rumour come from?

not discrediting you, but i think we need more facts that someone merely saying "rumour has it, its XYZ"
 
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