Oil Stocks ready to Rally?

[Smurf1976]

At US$ 68 per barrel, oil is now quite some way below the point at which some sources of supply are profitable. They'll continue operating, since once you've drilled the wells etc the actual operation isn't hugely expensive, but at this price quite a few projects would never have gone ahead in the first place. Assuming the low price stays around for a while, in due course there will be projects that would have gone ahead but end up being cancelled.

So my thinking is that, whilst markets can do anything in the short term, this price for oil is probably unsustainable in the longer term unless there's either a sustained drop in consumption and/or those who have the ability to develop cheaper sources of oil choose to do so (most notably Venezuela - but they'd likely need a new government first so it's not a simple matter of economics to develop oil there).

 

[CanOz]

Opec making the rules and their not playing the game.
Wonder why they aren't cutting production. That along with aud and IOre savaging today.
Which stocks would be your picks ?

Here's one on my watch list for a longer term play...currently 9% div.

Need a solid bottom here though, capital intensive business the oil sands. They need 75+ / bbl to be profitable

 

[dlineinvestor]

At US$ 68 per barrel, oil is now quite some way below the point at which some sources of supply are profitable. They'll continue operating, since once you've drilled the wells etc the actual operation isn't hugely expensive, but at this price quite a few projects would never have gone ahead in the first place. Assuming the low price stays around for a while, in due course there will be projects that would have gone ahead but end up being cancelled.

So my thinking is that, whilst markets can do anything in the short term, this price for oil is probably unsustainable in the longer term unless there's either a sustained drop in consumption and/or those who have the ability to develop cheaper sources of oil choose to do so (most notably Venezuela - but they'd likely need a new government first so it's not a simple matter of economics to develop oil there).

Not sure if you guys are aware of this video on the current "oil" situation .... but lends some insight
"tech" make sure you watch this video !!!!!!!!

 

[CanOz]

Oil smashed through support

Last night oil smashed support, guessing there were allot of stops there.

At this rate we could actually see 40 USD / bbl?

OPEC Gusher to Hit Weakest Players, From Wildcatters to Iran

 

[Wysiwyg]

Noticed more oil stock traders are dropping cyanide capsules today. Is this the low?

Poster 'Treefrog' had this link for panic selling information.

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/06/esm.asp

 

[Deriv555]

Here's one on my watch list for a longer term play...currently 9% div.

Need a solid bottom here though, capital intensive business the oil sands. They need 75+ / bbl to be profitable

Sorry to veer off topic, but what's that stock app? I love the black background...

 

[CanOz]

Sorry to veer off topic, but what's that stock app? I love the black background...

Just good ole Amibroker 5.50

 

[notting]

Where is hell anyway?

 

[pixel]

Where is hell anyway?

$35-$45 for the hext 2 years?

 

[Wysiwyg]

Still haven't learned that prices go beyond what seems reasonable.

 

[Porper]

Oil is under the cosh on the back of the perception that OPEC will not come to an agreement to cut production tomorrow.

If an agreement is made then some stocks (below) are primed for a good rally. Charts very basic but self-explanatory.

I hold all 3.

Higher risk obviously so tight stops.

 

[notting]

If I bet, I will watch how they close and back a spike or short a drop.
Insiders have been showing their hand's over night announcements on oilers since the OPEC Russian Jokers started manipulating it with announcements and meetings and pretend agreements.

 

[Porper]

If I bet, I will watch how they close and back a spike or short a drop.
Insiders have been showing their hand's over night announcements on oilers since the OPEC Russian Jokers started manipulating it with announcements and meetings and pretend agreements.

Could go either way, nobody has a clue.

I wouldn't be shorting any of those stocks. I will be out for breakeven or a small loss if oil tanks on a lack of agreement...notwithstanding a major collapse in oil but not likely i.m.o.

 

[Kryzz]

Could go either way, nobody has a clue.

I wouldn't be shorting any of those stocks. I will be out for breakeven or a small loss if oil tanks on a lack of agreement...notwithstanding a major collapse in oil but not likely i.m.o.

Definitely off to a promising start..

 

[luutzu]

Definitely off to a promising start..

Takes a brave person to bet either way on oil in the short term.

 

[notting]

Could go either way, nobody has a clue.

I wouldn't be shorting any of those stocks. I will be out for breakeven or a small loss if oil tanks on a lack of agreement...notwithstanding a major collapse in oil but not likely i.m.o.

I gave you the clue in the very paragraph you quoted!!!!

Almost all of them kicked at the close and were looking to close higher all be it only a little from the last open market trade price to the closing price.
I only went long on one of them because it wasn't that aggressive.
So far oil has spiked 8% since!!!

However, I would caution that 'being close to an agreement' is not worth an 8% spike in my opinion!!!

 

[Porper]

I only went long on one of them because it wasn't that aggressive

The point I was making was that the patterns on WPL, AWE & BPT provided low risk entries a while ago. It didn't matter (in the bigger scheme of things) whether an OPEC deal was made or not. Getting in early removed a lot of the risk. All we can control is how much we are prepared to lose.

Short-term price action for oil is anyone's guess but heading in the right direction for now so will go with the flow.

 

[notting]

The point I was making was that the patterns on WPL, AWE & BPT provided low risk entries a while ago.

Yes, your point was fine on a broader level.

However, in this rare occasion, I was pointing out that there was actually a fairly good chance of picking what would happen today, yesterday if you watched what I said to watch.

Obviously, an opportunity like that is fairly unusual in general circumstances and would be regarded as highly risky to the traditional technical and fundamental analasys.

Your post seemed to ignore my magnificent insight which deeply hurt my feelings.
It's OK I have had counseling and am over it now.