white_goodman
BOC
- Joined
- 13 December 2007
- Posts
- 1,635
- Reactions
- 0
Re: OIL AGAIN!
ahh hmmmm
ahh hmmmm
You may not have read this article. Brazil has deep offshore and they say Iraq will come into its own with increased future production. The war thing possibly avoided a dictator using oil as a bargaining chip when peak oil really peaks. Pumping more and more of what's known should speed that scenario up. Assuming we aren't being lied too so there is no panic.With an annual decline in production of 5% from all existing production, which I believe is reasonable based on figures from IEA and other research, this equates to about 4m bopd decrease each year.
There is no way that new discoveries/production will be able to match this AND provide an extra 1-2m bopd each year to get to any stated target in the 100+mbopd range (IMO of course).
In which case, there is some serious .... going to hit the fan over the next few years as net importing countries face up to limited supply as well as a steadily, if not rapidly, increasing POO.
The Energy Report - 13 November 2009 -
Opec has 6m barrels a day (b/d) of spare capacity in store. Oil demand from OECD countries may have peaked in 2005. Crude oil stocks are sitting at record levels. Iraq aims to add another 4.5m b/d of production within five years. A host of new, large oilfields have been discovered in recent months. And governments will soon gather in Copenhagen to search for an agreement on cutting global emissions of greenhouse gases, with carbon-rich oil one of the culprits.
Despite all this, the peak-oil story is making front-page news again.
ahh hmmmm
Net importer. Domestic production peaked early this decade and is now in decline due to depletion.This may seem like an obvious question, but are we as Australian's net importers or exporters of Oil?
You may not have read this article. Brazil has deep offshore and they say Iraq will come into its own with increased future production. The war thing possibly avoided a dictator using oil as a bargaining chip when peak oil really peaks. Pumping more and more of what's known should speed that scenario up. Assuming we aren't being lied too so there is no panic.
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2470
Depletion Levels in Ghawar
Posted by Stuart Staniford on May 15, 2007 - 11:52am
In particular, Saudi oil production has been falling with increasing speeed since summer 2005, and overall, since mid 2004, about 2 million barrels of oil per day in production has gone missing (about 1mbpd in reduction in total production, and about another 1mbpd in that two major new projects, Qatif and Haradh III, failed to increase overall production).
Cantarell, The Second Largest Oil Field in the World Is Dying
by G.R. Morton
In 2004, the complex produced 2.136 million bbl/day which declined to 1.525 million by 2007. Production declines as the expanding gas cap intersects the well bores. Considering that the gas/oil contact is level across the field, many wells are affected simultaneously. Today the end is near with expectations that Cantarell will become uneconomic as early as 2014 and no later than 2019. The three field sub-complex Ku-Maloob-Zaap is expected to begin its terminal decline in 2010. All in all, especially with crude oil prices down sharply, the future looks grim for the complex.
http://www.peakoil.net/headline-news/iea-whistleblower-says-peak-oil-nearing
IEA ‘whistleblower’ says peak oil nearing
Submitted by Mikael Höök on Tue, 2009-11-10 15:49. Headline news
The world is closer to a peak in oil supply than International Energy Agency estimates admit, UK newspaper The Guardian reported in today’s edition, citing an unidentified "whistleblower" at the IEA.
The senior official claims the US has played an influential role in encouraging the watchdog to underplay the rate of decline from existing oil fields while overplaying the chances of finding new reserves.
"Many inside the organisation believe that maintaining oil supplies at even 90 million to 95 million barrels a day would be impossible but there are fears that panic could spread on the financial markets if the figures were brought down further," the Guardian quoted the IEA source as saying.
Yesterday's big news in the commodities world was Exxon's $31 billion takeover of XTO Energy.
The acquisition is a big endorsement by the world's largest energy company. The majority of XTO's assets are U.S. shale gas properties. With the buyout, Exxon is essentially saying they see a big future in shale.
It's certainly true that shale gas is one of the biggest "new things" to come along in the energy space for some time.
However, there are a few factors that should give investors pause when they consider natural gas.
One of the chief considerations being the oil-to-gas price ratio. And its unusual effects on drilling costs.
I don't know the answer to that one. Some rally, some don't.Another stupid question - if the Oil price does rise which share prices could be affected on the ASX? If say oil went up to $85 per barrell would Woodside's share value increase for example?
or is it all irrelevant to Australian Companies?
That is essentially what many have been saying for years now.You may not have read these articles...basically we are being lied to
anyone get caught out by that 5% move?
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/02/05/143216/wti-friday-meltdown/
Rumor was it was some fund liquidating a large position... This I don't believe, who the hell would cause so much pain to their own account if they were in trouble.. Im looking to go short from here..
I'd like to suggest some hypothetical situations:
-war breaks out, Venezuala vs Columbia
-Iran is hit by certain concerned folk eager to halt the nuclear program, potential hotspots in the M.E. igniting
-Russia/Ukraine go at it
If one or all of these happens, what are the implications for our oil companies here in Aus?
With Chindia churning out more cars per year now than just about the rest of the world, even with a percentage of those electric, demand has got to increase IMO.
Don't get me started on the supply side, I'm a firm holder of the Peak Oil hypothesis with peak supply being 2005 and it ain't gonna be topped.
I'll post an EW count on a chart again sometime, to support my view that POO may probe a bit higher into the $90.00's before sliding back again.
On Iraq, I believe a large contract was let recently to re-develop most of the fields shut down by the war.
Also, I suggest many forecasts of future demand may not factor in enough for savings in technological efficiencies in future consumption.
We use cookies and similar technologies for the following purposes:
Do you accept cookies and these technologies?
We use cookies and similar technologies for the following purposes:
Do you accept cookies and these technologies?