white_goodman
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Oil price discussion and analysis
- Thread starter wayneL
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Wysiwyg
Everyone wants money
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Re: OIL AGAIN!
You may not have read this article. Brazil has deep offshore and they say Iraq will come into its own with increased future production. The war thing possibly avoided a dictator using oil as a bargaining chip when peak oil really peaks. Pumping more and more of what's known should speed that scenario up. Assuming we aren't being lied too so there is no panic.
Whiskers
It's a small world
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Re: OIL AGAIN!
I'll post an EW count on a chart again sometime, to support my view that POO may probe a bit higher into the $90.00's before sliding back again.
On Iraq, I believe a large contract was let recently to re-develop most of the fields shut down by the war.
Also, I suggest many forecasts of future demand may not factor in enough for savings in technological efficiencies in future consumption.
I'll post an EW count on a chart again sometime, to support my view that POO may probe a bit higher into the $90.00's before sliding back again.
On Iraq, I believe a large contract was let recently to re-develop most of the fields shut down by the war.
Also, I suggest many forecasts of future demand may not factor in enough for savings in technological efficiencies in future consumption.
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Re: OIL AGAIN!
Net importer. Domestic production peaked early this decade and is now in decline due to depletion.
Re: OIL AGAIN!
You may not have read these articles...basically we are being lied to
OPEC may well say they have 6mbopd spare capacity, but with depletion of 5%, this will not be there by the end of 2011. Iraq may well be able to bring 4mbopd online by 2015 but Cantarell is going to be pretty much down to a dribble by then.
If Brazil can bring more than 1mbopd online from their deep water over the next five years, I'll give you $100.
I tell you, we are up to our eyeballs in .... if we don't seriously start looking for alternatives NOW!
You may not have read these articles...basically we are being lied to
OPEC may well say they have 6mbopd spare capacity, but with depletion of 5%, this will not be there by the end of 2011. Iraq may well be able to bring 4mbopd online by 2015 but Cantarell is going to be pretty much down to a dribble by then.
If Brazil can bring more than 1mbopd online from their deep water over the next five years, I'll give you $100.
I tell you, we are up to our eyeballs in .... if we don't seriously start looking for alternatives NOW!
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Re: OIL AGAIN!
Long oil @ $77
Long oil @ $77
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Re: OIL AGAIN!
Another stupid question - if the Oil price does rise which share prices could be affected on the ASX? If say oil went up to $85 per barrell would Woodside's share value increase for example?
or is it all irrelevant to Australian Companies?
Another stupid question - if the Oil price does rise which share prices could be affected on the ASX? If say oil went up to $85 per barrell would Woodside's share value increase for example?
or is it all irrelevant to Australian Companies?
Wysiwyg
Everyone wants money
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Re: OIL AGAIN!
Excerpt from news article that might interest oil bugs in reference to the seriously out of proportion gas price and what Exxon's future direction is.
Excerpt from news article that might interest oil bugs in reference to the seriously out of proportion gas price and what Exxon's future direction is.
I don't know the answer to that one. Some rally, some don't.
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Re: OIL AGAIN!
OPEC figures are fudged, "reserve" figures seeming to be total oil discovered to date, not that which remains.
And the oil that exists in places such as Venezuela, Iraq etc, and that is a very large portion of the undeveloped known oil fields globally, aren't likely to be developed for political reasons, at least not at anything approaching present oil prices.
Meanwhile true underlying oil demand continues to soar as China, India etc industrialise. Almost as soon as there's significant growth in Western economies as the economic slump ends, we'll slam straight into the ceiling imposed by oil production capacity.
That is essentially what many have been saying for years now.You may not have read these articles...basically we are being lied to
OPEC figures are fudged, "reserve" figures seeming to be total oil discovered to date, not that which remains.
And the oil that exists in places such as Venezuela, Iraq etc, and that is a very large portion of the undeveloped known oil fields globally, aren't likely to be developed for political reasons, at least not at anything approaching present oil prices.
Meanwhile true underlying oil demand continues to soar as China, India etc industrialise. Almost as soon as there's significant growth in Western economies as the economic slump ends, we'll slam straight into the ceiling imposed by oil production capacity.
Re: OIL AGAIN!
To be honest and add some balance to my view, I did read an article the ohter day re Iraq's fields being let out to Shell etc and they were putting forward figures of up to 12m bopd from current 2.5m bopd by 2015.
Obviously if that happened there would be a lot less pressure on the supply side, although if major fields are declining at 5% (and assuming the majors supply 40% of our oil) then we are losing 2% of supply a year which is 1.7m bopd lost each year. By 2015 that equates to 8.5m bopd which pretty much negates Iraq's extra capacity.
To be honest and add some balance to my view, I did read an article the ohter day re Iraq's fields being let out to Shell etc and they were putting forward figures of up to 12m bopd from current 2.5m bopd by 2015.
Obviously if that happened there would be a lot less pressure on the supply side, although if major fields are declining at 5% (and assuming the majors supply 40% of our oil) then we are losing 2% of supply a year which is 1.7m bopd lost each year. By 2015 that equates to 8.5m bopd which pretty much negates Iraq's extra capacity.
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Re: OIL AGAIN!
In a technical sense, I've no doubt that Iraq and others (most obviously Canada and Venezuela) can certainly ramp up oil production to a considerable extent and offset declines elsewhere.
But taking the pragmatic approach, just how likely is that to actually happen in the timeframe it's needed (ie when the recession ends)?
It would seem to be a monumental task in itself even if the political issues weren't there. But all three of those countries are subject to political issues (mostly environmental ones in the case of Canada) that are likely to delay if not outright cancel such developments in my opinion.
One thing's reasonably certain though and that is that we will find out whether or not oil is going to be a problem in the not too distant future. This is no longer in the "30 years away" category, it's as soon as the economy (globally) simply recovers to where it was 18 months ago. How long that will take is anyone's guess, but I'd be thinking of perhaps two or three years, not two or three decades.
In a technical sense, I've no doubt that Iraq and others (most obviously Canada and Venezuela) can certainly ramp up oil production to a considerable extent and offset declines elsewhere.
But taking the pragmatic approach, just how likely is that to actually happen in the timeframe it's needed (ie when the recession ends)?
It would seem to be a monumental task in itself even if the political issues weren't there. But all three of those countries are subject to political issues (mostly environmental ones in the case of Canada) that are likely to delay if not outright cancel such developments in my opinion.
One thing's reasonably certain though and that is that we will find out whether or not oil is going to be a problem in the not too distant future. This is no longer in the "30 years away" category, it's as soon as the economy (globally) simply recovers to where it was 18 months ago. How long that will take is anyone's guess, but I'd be thinking of perhaps two or three years, not two or three decades.
Re: OIL AGAIN!
My money is on oil largely trading between $75 - $90 in the medium term but volatility and instability pushing it outside those zones...
In stable circumstances , anything above $90 opens too many new opportunities for prodction for it to stay there long term ....
My money is on oil largely trading between $75 - $90 in the medium term but volatility and instability pushing it outside those zones...
In stable circumstances , anything above $90 opens too many new opportunities for prodction for it to stay there long term ....
Re: OIL AGAIN!
Looking ahead in 2010 there appears to be the possibility of trouble with supplies from the middle east as the west moves to put sanctions on iran
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/12/29/AR2009122903415.html
Iran although a large oil producer is a importer of refined product. However cocnsistent with stratfor analysisis it may be that the administrations reluctance to impose sanctions on refined product may be related to russia having a large border with iran and being quite willing to sell refined product to the iranians if only to annoy the americans and tie down us resources that would otherwise be used in the new nato members sucha s poland on russias borders .
If the iranians counter a sanctions move with limited military activity they have the ability courtesy of some russian equipment including relativly modern mines to seriously disrupt shipping through the straits of hormuz
This would leave the pipleline from iraq through turkey and the second across saudi territory as the main conduits for mid east oil exports
I dont know how much they carry but presumably not enough to replace the supertankers sailing out of the gulf
Looking ahead in 2010 there appears to be the possibility of trouble with supplies from the middle east as the west moves to put sanctions on iran
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/12/29/AR2009122903415.html
Iran although a large oil producer is a importer of refined product. However cocnsistent with stratfor analysisis it may be that the administrations reluctance to impose sanctions on refined product may be related to russia having a large border with iran and being quite willing to sell refined product to the iranians if only to annoy the americans and tie down us resources that would otherwise be used in the new nato members sucha s poland on russias borders .
If the iranians counter a sanctions move with limited military activity they have the ability courtesy of some russian equipment including relativly modern mines to seriously disrupt shipping through the straits of hormuz
This would leave the pipleline from iraq through turkey and the second across saudi territory as the main conduits for mid east oil exports
I dont know how much they carry but presumably not enough to replace the supertankers sailing out of the gulf
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Re: OIL AGAIN!
anyone get caught out by that 5% move?
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/02/05/143216/wti-friday-meltdown/
Rumor was it was some fund liquidating a large position... This I don't believe, who the hell would cause so much pain to their own account if they were in trouble.. Im looking to go short from here..
anyone get caught out by that 5% move?
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/02/05/143216/wti-friday-meltdown/
Rumor was it was some fund liquidating a large position... This I don't believe, who the hell would cause so much pain to their own account if they were in trouble.. Im looking to go short from here..
Re: OIL AGAIN!
Nuh, I'm long. Seems to me like there's going to be increasing demand, at least from everywhere except the PIGS, but hey they can't use much of the stuff anyway can they? With Chindia churning out more cars per year now than just about the rest of the world, even with a percentage of those electric, demand has got to increase IMO.
Don't get me started on the supply side, I'm a firm holder of the Peak Oil hypothesis with peak supply being 2005 and it ain't gonna be topped.
Nuh, I'm long. Seems to me like there's going to be increasing demand, at least from everywhere except the PIGS, but hey they can't use much of the stuff anyway can they? With Chindia churning out more cars per year now than just about the rest of the world, even with a percentage of those electric, demand has got to increase IMO.
Don't get me started on the supply side, I'm a firm holder of the Peak Oil hypothesis with peak supply being 2005 and it ain't gonna be topped.
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Re: OIL AGAIN!
I'd like to suggest some hypothetical situations:
-war breaks out, Venezuala vs Columbia
-Iran is hit by certain concerned folk eager to halt the nuclear program, potential hotspots in the M.E. igniting
-Russia/Ukraine go at it
If one or all of these happens, what are the implications for our oil companies here in Aus?
I'd like to suggest some hypothetical situations:
-war breaks out, Venezuala vs Columbia
-Iran is hit by certain concerned folk eager to halt the nuclear program, potential hotspots in the M.E. igniting
-Russia/Ukraine go at it
If one or all of these happens, what are the implications for our oil companies here in Aus?
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Re: OIL AGAIN!
Re: OIL AGAIN!
They would rub there hands with glee, scoop up the lube and..... well, we would certainly feel it..
Your quite right. These are all major oil suppliers in what is still a very tight market with almost no extra swing capacity left. Supply constraints would lead to immediate jumps in price with very little capacity to increase local supply. Let's not think about it shall we ? arn't there enough problems already ?
Re: OIL AGAIN!
They would rub there hands with glee, scoop up the lube and..... well, we would certainly feel it..
Your quite right. These are all major oil suppliers in what is still a very tight market with almost no extra swing capacity left. Supply constraints would lead to immediate jumps in price with very little capacity to increase local supply. Let's not think about it shall we ? arn't there enough problems already ?
Wysiwyg
Everyone wants money
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Re: OIL AGAIN!
Burgeoning demand and depleting supplies. Yep, makes sense to me. At what price per bbl do you think a western country's economy would start to go into decline? US$140 - $150 was a tough price at the filling station.
Loved those Mad Max movies. Guzzolene, MFP, V8 Interceptors etc. etc.
Burgeoning demand and depleting supplies. Yep, makes sense to me. At what price per bbl do you think a western country's economy would start to go into decline? US$140 - $150 was a tough price at the filling station.
Loved those Mad Max movies. Guzzolene, MFP, V8 Interceptors etc. etc.
Whiskers
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Re: OIL AGAIN!
Time for a quick revisit.
Anyone else think it's run out of steam and headed back to the low 60's?
Time for a quick revisit.
Anyone else think it's run out of steam and headed back to the low 60's?
