Oil price discussion and analysis

basilio · 30 March 2009

Re: OIL AGAIN!

There are some interesting fundamentals happening with oil demand and supply in the near future. This analysis from Matt Simmons suggests that oil will spike far quicker than we may imagine because mature fields are depleting very quickly and new developments are being stalled.

Financier (Matt Simmons) sees oil shock from credit crunch
Christopher Johnson, Reuters
The global financial crisis and collapse in the oil market have stalled vital investment in oil exploration and production and are likely soon to lead to a sharp spike in prices, an energy consultant and financier says.

Matt Simmons, founder of Houston-based investment bank Simmons & Co, argues the underlying rate of decline of the world's aging oilfields is as much as 20 percent a year and only high levels of investment can reduce that to single digits.

With credit tight and oil prices almost $100 a barrel below their highs last year, oil companies are unable to sustain previous levels of spending and the result is falling production, he said in an interview on Thursday.

"We are three, six, maybe nine months away from a price shock. We are not talking about three to five years away -- it will be much sooner," Simmons told Reuters in London.
(26 March 2009)

http://www.energybulletin.net/node/48467

Of course what will happen to a depressed economy with absolute scarcities of oil seems pretty grim.

jonojpsg · 31 March 2009

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Mmm hmm, I've been hearing stuff about a "super contango" with regard to oil futures - looking at heading back towards $100 again before end 2009.

I guess this makes perfect sense - if the major fields are producing say 50% of world production and are declining at even 10% p.a. we are looking at a 4-5% reduction in supply over the rest of the year, or around 3-4 million bopd

Compare this with quibbling over whether OPEC is producing 1 million a day more than quota and it's pretty darn obvious where we are heading price-wise. Especially adding in the cuts due to high-cost production being stopped

Could be BAD

Nero64 · 3 April 2009

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Sorry if this has already been mentioned.

Can anyone point out a link or give me some information on Australia's biggest Oil/Petroleum producers in terms of Barrel produced etc.

I might be way off base but does it go something like this.

BHP
Woodside
Santos
Oil Search
AWE
Beach Petroleum
the rest etc etc

thanks

phong_01 · 9 April 2009

Re: OIL AGAIN!

An article from CNBC about the future oil price:

Although oil prices should remain low for the next three to six months, the threat of surging prices remains, said John Hofmeister, former Shell president and CEO of U.S. operations.

"It's really sad," Hofmeister said, in an interview with CNBC. "We've lost half the drilling rigs in the country in the last seven months. The prices are probably going to stay down for some time."

However, this is setting the scene for another potential in spike in gasoline.

Although demand for oil has slipped, the world is still consuming more than 80 million barrels a day, he said. Hofmeister expects March numbers to show that demand was a little less than supply.

"The good news is the gasoline supply and demand is almost in equilibrium," he said. "But the refineries are operating about 80 percent."

If the Obama administration is successful with its economic recovery plan, oil prices will rebound, said Hofmeister.

"We're all going to have whiplash on gasoline prices and we'll be right back where we were a year ago," he said.

bowman · 3 May 2009

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Quote:

" Crude oil: My new crude oil setup goes to bullish with execution on Monday's open of trading. This is based on a combination of super-bullish positioning by the commercial hedgers and small trader crowd (both of whom appear to be the "smart money" in this market, at least according to the timeframes I'm using to view them). "

http://cotstimer.blogspot.com/

Woroni · 7 May 2009

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Hi,

Just wondering if anyone can show me a free chart that displays oil prices for the past 2 years or more. I've used this http://www.quote.com/us/futures/chart.action?chartUi.minutes=&chartUi.bardensity=HIGH&chartUi.bartype=BAR&s=CL+%23F&chartUi.period=D&chartUi.size=650x450 but it only goes for 12 months. Something similar but going for 24 months or more would be great, the longer the better.

Thanks.

PS: I do think Oil is heading up, the momentum is pretty strong. It is likely only to be stopped by some external event, eg pandemic, financial meltdown, etc.

EDIT: $100 by end of 2009? Who is paying that price? I'd take that bet!

seasprite · 7 May 2009

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Woroni said:
Hi,

Just wondering if anyone can show me a free chart that displays oil prices for the past 2 years or more. I've used this but it only goes for 12 months. Something similar but going for 24 months or more would be great, the longer the better.

Thanks.

have you tried changing the period to weekly or monthly , unsure of your question you ask.

Woroni · 7 May 2009

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Sorry, I should clarify. I would like DAILY for longer than a year. Does that make sense?

seasprite · 7 May 2009

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Woroni said:
Sorry, I should clarify. I would like DAILY for longer than a year. Does that make sense?

try this one , just change the number of days to view http://stockcharts.com/charts/performance/perf.html?$WTIC

sandybeachs · 8 May 2009

weekly oil chart one year

we've seen markets improve over the past month, thus oil price has also improved.

weekly oil chart one year.

sandybeachs · 8 May 2009

oil price US$57.20bbl

not so long ago oil was below US40bbl..

most would be happy with US$70bbl ~ US$80bbl..

who knows if the markets keep improving the above may not be far off..

Agentm · 8 May 2009

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Woroni said:
Hi,

Just wondering if anyone can show me a free chart that displays oil prices for the past 2 years or more. I've used this http://www.quote.com/us/futures/chart.action?chartUi.minutes=&chartUi.bardensity=HIGH&chartUi.bartype=BAR&s=CL+%23F&chartUi.period=D&chartUi.size=650x450 but it only goes for 12 months. Something similar but going for 24 months or more would be great, the longer the better.

Thanks.

PS: I do think Oil is heading up, the momentum is pretty strong. It is likely only to be stopped by some external event, eg pandemic, financial meltdown, etc.

EDIT: $100 by end of 2009? Who is paying that price? I'd take that bet!

the US has their fill of oil, their stockpiles are to the brim, and despite that, they see the price rise as a result of hedge funds no longer prepared to run a short on oil, (oil became a hip thing to short when hedge funds were banned from many markets- oil was one of a few places they could go, and did they ever come into it hey!! heavily impacting on the downside of the oil price)

the summer driving season in the US is looking like adding to speculation, and there is a massive decrease in production from the worlds 3 major fields, with no new drilling to adequately replace declines, the supply is there for now but the numbers are low on the future supply side should the world wake up.

if a economic recovery is seen to be occurring, world demand will increase in a heartbeat, and the oil will be at $150 in months.. then we should see the secondary effect of what happens when there is real short supply for the demand! i hear that you can say good bye to $150 and see a double of that once the worlds thirst for oil comes back..

in the usa, the declines in fields have never been so steep.. and add to that the rigs being stacked up and the fields depleting, and no real exploration happening.. the moment recovery is being touted in the markets then oil companies will be a brilliant investment..

there are some great shares out there right now in the oil sector

nikemi · 8 May 2009

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Agentm said:
the US has their fill of oil, their stockpiles are to the brim, and despite that, they see the price rise as a result of hedge funds no longer prepared to run a short on oil, (oil became a hip thing to short when hedge funds were banned from many markets- oil was one of a few places they could go, and did they ever come into it hey!! heavily impacting on the downside of the oil price)

the summer driving season in the US is looking like adding to speculation, and there is a massive decrease in production from the worlds 3 major fields, with no new drilling to adequately replace declines, the supply is there for now but the numbers are low on the future supply side should the world wake up.

if a economic recovery is seen to be occurring, world demand will increase in a heartbeat, and the oil will be at $150 in months.. then we should see the secondary effect of what happens when there is real short supply for the demand! i hear that you can say good bye to $150 and see a double of that once the worlds thirst for oil comes back..

in the usa, the declines in fields have never been so steep.. and add to that the rigs being stacked up and the fields depleting, and no real exploration happening.. the moment recovery is being touted in the markets then oil companies will be a brilliant investment..

there are some great shares out there right now in the oil sector

But then again if oil hits double 150 what effect is that going to have on inflation and interest rates again and we'll we be able to fully recover from the current recessions before we go into another one. After all consumers need money to spend to keep economy going, if all that goes on oil what will the consequences be?

basilio · 8 May 2009

Re: OIL AGAIN!

But then again if oil hits double 150 what effect is that going to have on inflation and interest rates again and we'll we be able to fully recover from the current recessions before we go into another one. After all consumers need money to spend to keep economy going, if all that goes on oil what will the consequences be?

not.... very....pretty....

The issue of an irreversible decline in oil production from mostly peaked fields facing a continual increase in demand can only mean a severe and continued contraction of the whole economic system. Unfortunately on my research Agentums analysis is spot on. For a short time at least the biggest deal in town will be energy stocks but I fear even these will be overcome by the overall effects of a steeply declining energy supply.

But hey maybe its all a commie plot ! ?

Wysiwyg · 8 May 2009

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Are we hearing governments pushing alternatives to oil, oil derivatives and oil consuming machines? I wonder if it will be too late by the time our chosen tribe leaders start implementing practical changes. As consumers we (the tribe) just take what is there in front of us.

jonojpsg · 8 May 2009

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Wysiwyg said:
Are we hearing governments pushing alternatives to oil, oil derivatives and oil consuming machines? I wonder if it will be too late by the time our chosen tribe leaders start implementing practical changes. As consumers we (the tribe) just take what is there in front of us.

It's unbelievable to me that the Australian government is not doing something serious about Peak Oil, eg implementing a hydrogen economy. I sent the minister of energy an email a few months back asking whether that was on their agenda and he (well his aide) fobbed me off with "we are currently undertaking a Energy security audit and will consider the options when it is complete blah blah blah. Two of our major oil suppliers (Vietnam and Malaysia) are going to be net importers of oil within five years, which puts us at least 30% below current supply levels.

There is NO doubt in my mind that Peak Oil is going to hit the world and hit it hard - supply peaked pretty much exactly when the theory predicted (2005) and will not reach that level again.

Now that the economic outlook out at the 6-12 month horizon is looking more stable (and even improving?) POO is going just where Agentm put it - $150 again and more. FOr me, I'm in on every oil opportunity I can get over the next 12 months.

And I'll buy everyone on here a beer if I can't make at least a 1000% return over that time on my oil trades!

Tradesurfer · 9 May 2009

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Oil has been in a huge downtrend generating nice potential profits for those that rode is down with a short position. After a quick entry/exit- my indicator is again showing a long position entry in OIL. By the way I use the SYMBOL: OIL which is an oil ETN(exchange traded note) from Barclays which looks to track the price of oil but trades like a stock on the us market.

The key to catching large moves is to define your strategy and take the signals understanding we don't know which moves are going to be big and which one result in small losses or gains. Always maintain an exit!!!

Enjoy

sandybeachs · 9 May 2009

Re: OIL AGAIN!

IMO the markets need oil around $US80bbl, why..????

Supermajors, Majors and even Juniors really can't do any exploration/development with an oil price at current levels.

quote taken from recent article:

"The carnage among the oil supermajors continued today as Shell reported a 62% profit slump in the first quarter, hard on the heels of the 59% dive reported by arch-rival BP.
Profits at Shell in the first three months of the year plunged to $2.9 billion (£2 billion) from $7.8 billion on the back of a more-than-halved oil price, around $42 a barrel versus $90, and Shell's continuing woes in Nigeria, its once-great hope."

also i wouldn't like to see US$150bbl in the near term. we need to see the world markets improve before any price like US$150bbl.

Magdoran · 9 May 2009

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Woroni said:
Hi,

Just wondering if anyone can show me a free chart that displays oil prices for the past 2 years or more. I've used this http://www.quote.com/us/futures/chart.action?chartUi.minutes=&chartUi.bardensity=HIGH&chartUi.bartype=BAR&s=CL+%23F&chartUi.period=D&chartUi.size=650x450 but it only goes for 12 months. Something similar but going for 24 months or more would be great, the longer the better.

Thanks.

PS: I do think Oil is heading up, the momentum is pretty strong. It is likely only to be stopped by some external event, eg pandemic, financial meltdown, etc.

EDIT: $100 by end of 2009? Who is paying that price? I'd take that bet!

Hi Woroni,

You wouldn't happen to be an ex-ANU student would you?

Please find two CL charts as requested:

Sorry I don't know a free site that publishes what you are looking for...

Mag

rederob · 9 May 2009

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Magdoran said:
Hi Woroni,

Sorry I don't know a free site that publishes what you are looking for...

Mag

Hello Magdoran
This site has a java chart - just play with it a bit and it does some clever things depending on what you want to achieve:
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/javachart/CO/69

Although prices have been climbing steadily my view is that there is a fool's paradise unfolding and I find it difficult to conceive that global markets will make any headway for months to come.
Actually, I think we are about to see some protracted declines in the near term. That may not impact too heavily on crude prices as OPEC has done an exceptionally good job of cutting output and putting a "floor" in place.
The Saudis reckon they can knock our 12.5m barrels a day if they have to, when the market turns. I think they will have to do that and more, as unconventional oil is presently too expensive and monies to ramp output are not being invested.
When the global economy gets back on an even keel there will be many fields that are in such decline that "replacement" is unlikely to meet demand - a result of the present recession that has cut both exploration and development.
For me it's still very much a watching and waiting game. While the bargains may be behind us, I would rather some certainty that a turnaround was firmly established before moving from cash to equities.

Oil price discussion and analysis

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