Oil price discussion and analysis

[JeSSica WaBBit]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Have a read of this, it sums my thoughts up

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/04/27/ccliam127.xml

JW

 

[wavepicker]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Yep, i agree with Redrob.


Time will tell, $150.00 is the mark we should be considering in the short term.

JW

Well then!! That is a good case for you to both hang to your longs isn't it?

GOOD LUCK

 

[wavepicker]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

there is no longer plenty of oil.

100 years ago, the world relied on Whale Blubber immensly. Whale blubber is as rare as today and it's price is how much? A big fat zero amongst most of the worlds economies.

As prices reach an extremes, for one thing humans become more inventive and look for alternatives. We don't have much alternetives ATM and the price of crude is defintely going higher in the long term. But not in a straight line like you see to think.

Your criteria is simply based on supply and demand, and unfortuntely that is only part of the whole market equation.

 

[JeSSica WaBBit]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Hey Wavester,

Want to have a case of beer on it?

I'll take oil hitting $150.00 before it hits $65.00.

Just say the word and the bet is on, monies or beverages to be issued upon price reaching target.............

Yum, free beer!!!


JW

 

[rederob]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

100 years ago, the world relied on Whale Blubber immensly. Whale blubber is as rare as today and it's price is how much? A big fat zero amongst most of the worlds economies.

As prices reach an extremes, for one thing humans become more inventive and look for alternatives. We don't have much alternetives ATM and the price of crude is defintely going higher in the long term. But not in a straight line like you see to think.

Your criteria is simply based on supply and demand, and unfortuntely that is only part of the whole market equation.

I don't think prices go in straight lines.
I also think your whale blubber analogy is way off the mark. There are probably more people in India today that use cow dung as fuel as there were in the rest of the world at any point in time using whale oil.
Given that you didn't tackle my earlier question, perhaps you might like to tell us what price for oil is "extreme", and what might replace it in half a billion cars alone.
Then we will know why we should not use "demand" as a major determinant of the future oil price.

 

[Tysonboss1]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

100 years ago, the world relied on Whale Blubber immensly. Whale blubber is as rare as today and it's price is how much? A big fat zero amongst most of the worlds economies.

As prices reach an extremes, for one thing humans become more inventive and look for alternatives. We don't have much alternetives ATM and the price of crude is defintely going higher in the long term. But not in a straight line like you see to think.

Your criteria is simply based on supply and demand, and unfortuntely that is only part of the whole market equation.

I think Oil will double in value before it halves in value,...

 

[pilbara]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

On Monday we will see the extent that the Grangemouth strike and closure of the Forties Pipeline System effects world oil prices. This happened on top of continuining Nigerian supply disruptions and neverending Middle East tensions.

yep before these supply problems there was a traceback going on late last week, and i was waiting to see how far crude oil futures and oil company shares would fall before entering the market to buy some oil shares.

The $120 per barrel was a technical barrier correlated to $1.60 euro barrier and once the dollar bounced against the euro we saw a major commodities selloff. Lucky for Australia, the Anzac Day holiday saved the major mining companies getting hammered by 4% like they did in London and NY thursday night.

With news of the oil supply problems oil shares rose fast in early Friday London/New York trading but this run was short lived as the entire market reacted badly to the news of the "worst USA consumer confidence in 25 years".

The oil stocks immediately went down below previous lows, while at the same time oil futures rising up to $118 from $115.

By the end of trading all oil stocks except Shell had risen again by 1% and I would expect a consolidation gain of 1% or 2% in oil shares on Monday trading while the market waits to see if the $120 can be breached at the same time as when the dollar is rising against world currencies.

 

[wavepicker]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Hey Wavester,

Want to have a case of beer on it?

I'll take oil hitting $150.00 before it hits $65.00.

Just say the word and the bet is on, monies or beverages to be issued upon price reaching target.............

Yum, free beer!!!


JW

Gladly, send me a PM and we can work it out. If the consensus here is against me, that's encouraging, I'll be drinking your beer.

Rederob your short to medium term forecasts based on fundemental arguments have been far from impressive. i.e. have you forgotton your Gold episode with the duc a few years ago?

 

[JeSSica WaBBit]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Okay Wavepicker your on.

I'm good for the beer, no need for the PM yet, if we drop back to $65.00 you will get your beer guaranteed. I am a bunny of my word.

Should make for some interesting months ahead, more intersting than the monthly tipping comp.

Good luck and may oil decide our fate.


JW

 

[wavepicker]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Okay Wavepicker your on.

I'm good for the beer, no need for the PM yet, if we drop back to $65.00 you will get your beer guaranteed. I am a bunny of my word.

Should make for some interesting months ahead, more intersting than the monthly tipping comp.

Good luck and may oil decide our fate.


JW

I have never entered a tipping competition as I am no stock picker.

BTW I am no fundementalist.(for me the information given to us by the charts is enough in most cases) But this report by Ronald Bailey is quite interesting in comparsion to the never ending perma bull arguments.



Cheers

http://www.reason.com/news/show/125414.html

 

[ShareIt]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

oil doing it tough at $120, can't seem to break over and hold... if the FED signals a pause in cuts, dollar will rally and I think oil will hit $110... perhaps less...

 

[numbercruncher]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

The president of Opec, the cartel of oil-producing countries, has given warning that the price of crude could hit $200 a barrel, sparking fears that rising fuel costs will force more businesses into bankruptcy.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/industrials/article3830383.ece


Whoa, could you imagine the carnage if Oil hit $200 in the short term, the starvation, the riots, the recession.

Oh but thatd bring demand destruction surely ...

 

[ithatheekret]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

We already have most of that occurring right now , $200 oil will be a definite catalyst for higher tensions and starvation . It's a worry alright , but I don't see any great rushes by pollies on excise reductions .

I'd like to see a pile of rebate cheques mailed out to each registered vehicle owner , but the likelihood of that is somewhere between naught and zero .

But to quote Ashleigh Brilliant :

" If things are not as bad as they seem , why do they seem so bad "

One of his Pot-shots fits too . " Try to relax and enjoy the crisis " .

 

[JeSSica WaBBit]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Sorry guys but the rest of the world is going to just have to suffer until we hit $150.00 per barrel and i get my beer, until then i don't want to hear any sob stories, this is beer after all!!

JW

 

[wavepicker]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Sorry guys but the rest of the world is going to just have to suffer until we hit $150.00 per barrel and i get my beer, until then i don't want to hear any sob stories, this is beer after all!!

JW

My we are cocky tonight!!

Your $150 will start to look somewhat shaky soon. Gold going south, USD starting to show signs it might be going through a strengthening phase.

Good luck, I will let you know what brew I like very soon JW

 

[Kauri]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Oh Oh... thats gotta be good..??
President Bush beseeches Congress to reconsider opening the Alaska National Wildlife Refuge and to increase domestic refinery capacity..

Slipping
.............Kauri

 

[wayneL]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Oh Oh... thats gotta be good..??
President Bush beseeches Congress to reconsider opening the Alaska National Wildlife Refuge and to increase domestic refinery capacity..

Slipping
.............Kauri

He's been brushing up on the Book of Common Prayer, obviously.

 

[Kauri]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

He's been brushing up on the Book of Common Prayer, obviously.

Not from the King James version though..
.........Bush would not commit to a gas tax moratorium but said his
Administration continues to consider it and other good ideas. A moratorium
would save Americans 18.4 cents on every gallon but would undercut federal
revenues at a time when the full-year deficit is already aiming at a record...

All he needs to do is increase the tax on Alco-pops... in the name of good health of coarse...

Hiccup
.............Kauri

 

[wayneL]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Not from the King James version though..
.........Bush would not commit to a gas tax moratorium but said his
Administration continues to consider it and other good ideas. A moratorium
would save Americans 18.4 cents on every gallon but would undercut federal
revenues at a time when the full-year deficit is already aiming at a record...

All he needs to do is increase the tax on Alco-pops... in the name of good health of coarse...

Hiccup
.............Kauri

Hey, whatever happened to supply side economics? He should reduce tax on alco-pops.

Gordo should do the same on Kronenbourg 1664 I reckon, FWIW

 

[Kauri]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Hey, whatever happened to supply side economics? He should reduce tax on alco-pops.

Gordo should do the same on Kronenbourg 1664 I reckon, FWIW

All of those big words have lost me.. :alcohol: ..

Belch.. (it never sounds the same written)
...........Klaggi