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Oil price discussion and analysis

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Canadians starting to hook into the Oil sands now, very profitable seen as oil is way out there now a days !

Feb. 6, 2008

Resource Extraction

Suncor drops $20 billion into oilsands project

Crude oil production is expected to begin ramping up in late 2011, with full production capacity of 550,000 bpd expected to be achieved in 2012.

http://www.journalofcommerce.com/article/id26303


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Athabasca_Tar_Sands

Well doesnt seem like we will run out of Oil in our lifetimes, combined with the vast array of alternatives such as Biofuel, Increased efficency, electric, Air, Hydrogen etc, nothing to worry about, still could see price shocks when production doesnt keep up, but safe in the knowledge we will never run out, kind of puts a downer on Peak Oil (for now), Peak Production is the problem if all the alternatives dont come online in time I guess!
 
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Synthetic substitutes/additions may be the path taken.I`m sure the boffins will be working on a substitute lubricant to ultimately replace mineral oil.

 
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It's not a matter of running out of oil.
It's a matter of supply becoming only a small fraction of demand.
Anyone thinking that oil sands are the answer are dreaming.
The Saudi's have much cheaper oil, and billions of barrels at that.
The problem is getting enough out of the ground to meet rising demand: And lifting crude oil is much quicker and simpler than "mining" oil sands.
Peak oil is not about running out of oil. It's about production peaking, and the inevitable downslope thereafter.
 
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I want to buy the Air car the day its released in Australia and do my bit for the oil supply. Pre-Production is apparently this year.



http://www.insnet.org/ins_headlines.rxml?id=5991&photo=


http://www.theaircar.com/
 
Re: OIL AGAIN!

Not sure what this meant!
Please explain.

That explosive price growth looks increasingly unlikely for a very long time.

I simply cant see how short of wildcards or artifical price stimulation, such as opec reducing quotas or an Iran/US war etc.
 
Re: OIL AGAIN!

In the event that prices do fall significantly, quite a lot of presently priced out consumption will presumably come back into the market, particularly the poorer countries. So we'd have to see either a major increase in supply or fall in Western consumption to get back to cheap oil.

So far, the effects of production failing to meet underlying demand have been largely hidden in the wealthy countries since it's the poor countries where energy has become physically scarce as they are out bid by the wealthy nations.

I wonder how long until "poor" starts to include what most consider to be "wealthy" countries once we run out of genuinely poor ones to price out of the market? With booming demand and faltering production it will happen faster than most are expecting IMO. And it's not something we can collectively buy our way out of with money. On the downside of the slope someone HAS to be left without, that's the rules of the game. And the number left without has to constantly increase.
 
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http://money.cnn.com/2008/02/10/news/international/chavez.ap/index.htm

Heres one of the wild cards im talking about
 
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Thought you guys might be interested in this;
I remain bullish on oil which is why I'm still holding OSH, plus it wasn't that long ago there were takeover talks circulating about OSH.

Cheers
 
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Speaking at a conference in Florida, Abdullah Alireza, Saudi Arabia's Minister of State, said that, with US$500 billion tied up in the U.S.A. currency, uncoupling the Saudi riyal would be like Saudi Arabia shooting itself in the foot.
"The dollar is our currency of choice," he said. "We have no reason to believe that currency re-evaluation would be a panacea."
Alireza also said relations between Saudi Arabia and the US were worsening.
 
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http://news.theage.com.au/venezuela-oil-firm-pdvsa-cuts-supplies-to-exxonmobil/20080213-1ry3.html
 
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http://au.news.yahoo.com/080213/19/15tq0.html
 
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PDVSA. A technologically brilliant company with more potential to boost production than any other company or country. Unfortunately it's been nothing short of ruined by government - a reality which in itself virtually guarantees a peak in global production IMO.
 
Re: OIL AGAIN!

Can it break though on lower volume or are the speculators getting ready to take profits?
 

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Crude oil at $120 a barrel will be soon a reality

Why are oil quotes so hot again? Some guys say OPEP is making all efforts to maintain prices above $80, others saying that US slowdown will not affect directly demand of Oil and just few of them anticipating a possible war in the Middle East (unlikely I'm sure but there is always a possibility), and do you know which is my point of view in all of this scenario, speculation....... to pump this commodity to high levels. Currently, surging oil prices have darkened the economic outlook in the United States and also have threatened economic growth in Europe, so the crude are very linked to the actual situation of instability in economy but some guys are trying for all ways to hide this fact and focus only the currently debility in economic with a problem of subprime. Presently, it appears that high prices are acceptable to the American and Europeans consumers, reports of demand still showing no signs of a dramatically cut by people who uses their cars as the main way of transport, on the other hand outside the US, demand increases are being led by India and China, where growing economies mean more cars and trucks and more factories that burn oil and gas. All these factors together are a good tone for traders, speculate and pump this commodity, even knowing that economy will slowdown. So, there is no reason to dream with Oil prices at $50, 60 or even $75 again, we are facing a lot of changes in our way of life and we will pay for that. Did you saw our governments providing economic incentives for alternative energies or creating new ways for consumers slowdown the use? I'm not; probably I'm blind and just seeing the Black liquid in front of me. Anyway, and I'm not a fundamental analyst of Oil neither like to talk about that, but I'm just alerting you for the prices that you will see soon in front of eyes when you'll have to go to a gas station with your car. From a technical perspective, Oil will soon spike again and next stop will be well above $100, probably near $120.
 
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I'll buy that , the prices I've seen and the latest yeehaas by the market that Pickens has shorted oil are just a by-line for me . OPEC cuts production each March , they have to keep up maintenance .

I believe we have seen the low in oil , which we will get back to for a retest at some stage , but I don't think it will be until after March or further up the line , say somewhere between July to September .

To be honest , now that the market is used to seeing the $100 beacon flashing away , I wouldn't be surprised to see an event push oil into $150 , that would rattle all our cages .
 
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The questions i ask myself are will the Venezuelan government/Exxon Mobil issue be settled without supply disruption to the U.S. and will the OPEC`s maitain current production levels and will the U.S. economy downturn tighten their fuel consumption overall ?

With the Venezuelan issue there is a 3 day court hearing scheduled for next week on the 27th. so unless there is more sabre rattling from Chavez, things should be quiet until after the hearing.

With the OPEC issue, a $100 per barrel floor is scary.Here is a snippet from their website :-


The U.S. economic downturn will result in less fuel being used but with saying that, their (and ours to an extent) addiction to guzzolene is hard to break.

Just some thoughts.
 
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The U.S. economic downturn will result in less fuel being used but with saying that, their (and ours to an extent) addiction to guzzolene is hard to break.
Just some thoughts.
Neither the US nor Europe will have much to do with oil increasing in price.
Increasing demand is from the rest of the world, with the usual suspects being yet again guilty.
Frankly, the US could experience a decline in demand, and the rest of the world will pick up any slack.
Little by little the importance of the US is diminishing in all areas where we typically expected them to lead: Although it must be noted that it will be very many years before total oil consumption by the US is eclipsed by China.

OPEC knows their oil is more valuable in the ground than out, so they won't be in any hurry to help the rest of the world with their energy concerns. And while $100 is not yet a "floor", it's curious that with the spectre of recession about, oil is not being sold down!
 
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