Oil price discussion and analysis

divs4ever said:

yes i have been watching those dips into strategic reserves as well , however many years back a friend alerted me the fact crude oil ( above ground ) tends to go 'stale' after a while and needs to be used within a reasonable amount of time

in years gone by i noticed the US strategic reserves were discreetly sold down and refreshed in the resultant dip , providing a predictable buying dip ( for selected oil stocks )

i am wondering if this year all that really happened was that such a reserve sell-down was publicized to fit a political agenda

( sadly no ' dip opportunities' have appeared for me this year )

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Stockybailz said:

Anyone trading the Light Grude Oil - OSO/USD might find this of some interest, share price sitting on a keen 118.9 and been rising for most of the day. EightCap see it as a bye opportunity, although it overbought on most time-frames only the H4 has room to move and the daily is moving in the opposite direction. A bit sus but interest to see if it concurs against the grain, giving the current economics?
I think there dreaming and it won't hold momentum?

Eightcap mailed this a short time ago;

Thanks for tuning in, readers. Today we’re looking at USOUSD oil and wondering if yesterday’s price rejection could lead to a new leg higher from buyers.

So far this week, we have seen mixed trade with buyers coming close to breaking last week’s high before sellers took hold and set up a two-day retracement. It would have been three, but buyers had other ideas yesterday, stopping sellers once they tested 112.75. Buyers quickly took price back up above 117 and posted a higher close for the session.

Today so far price has been on the quieter side. If we can see a new move above yesterday’s high, we will be looking for a new up leg, but if sellers can close below 115.14 this could be a warning that the current retracement could have further to go.

If we do see a new leg higher would look for price to possibly get back into the 120/21 area if buyers can maintain momentum.


Happy Friday, all. We hope everyone has a lovely weekend and good trading.

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Telamelo said:

W

Well both oil & natural gas fell -6% overnight..

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Stockybailz said:

I notice after further analysis, of the OSO/USD it might well be collapsing, weekly analysis suggest it might well be exhausted sitting on a overbought market for the last couple of months and a bit, and I wouldn't be surprised to see oil prices decline over the month.
That's a good thing I guess for consumers, bringing the price of petrol down. Interesting to see how it all pan out!

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Stockybailz said:

As suggested and predicted the forecast for Oil is on the long dance south. I Think with the war in Ukraine and other economics that have been holding oil up. Have been manipulated to a collapse of oil prices is long over due. Watching it today after consolidating it's position yesterday in a range sideways it has broken down. Looks to be re considering it's position at this present time, but I see further bearish activity obsolete...

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Captain_Chaza said:

Great charts but could you please TIME STAMP the latest Data point

It would help me to see if it is Past History or Current Time / Real time at the point of Publishing
ie Giving them any relevance in the short term

Many thanks in advance if possibleView attachment 143186

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A surge in road traffic has been seen in China after two of the largest cities reopened following two months of lockdowns and restrictions, indicating the economy could be restarting and refined crude product demand is rising.

BloombergNEF examined Baidu traffic data and found Beijing and Shanghai roadway congestion jumped once travel restrictions under the zero-tolerance strategy to combat infections eased in early June.

The return of the two most important cities sent an index monitoring congestion of 15 Chinese cities with the highest vehicle registration above a January 2021 baseline.
The reopening of China comes as COVID infections in Shanghai and the rest of mainland China have dramatically receded after spiking in March, peaking in April, and moving lower through May.
As China eases COVID restrictions in top cities and congestion data soars, it'll boost demand for crude and refined products.

Dai Jiaquan, a director at the oil research department at CNPC, recently said a roadway recovery could boost demand by 1.6 million barrels a day on a quarterly basis from July to September. This comes as the US summer driving season is well underway, and North America, as well as much of the world, is structurally short refined products, such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, mainly because of refinery capacity woes.

Vitol Group Chief Executive Officer Russell Hardy told the audience Tuesday at the Qatar Economic Forum that China's increasing fuel demand in an already tight global market means prices won't drop that much.

"The market's a little bit concerned that we're running out of spare capacity and is beginning to factor that into prices," Hardy said.

He continued: "It depends on lockdowns, but we'd expect it to steadily come back through the second half of the year."

Hardy's similarly bullish message was echoed by Exxon Mobil CEO who said this week that global oil markets may remain tight for another three to five years largely because of a lack of investment since the pandemic began.

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mullokintyre said:

According to Bloombergs via Zero Hedge , the easing of lockdowns has caused a surge in traffic , and thus demand for petroleum products. And global oil markets may remain tight for the next three to five years.

Given that China seems to be leading the EV market, there will come a time when the surge in traffic does no peroduce a surge in petroleum products, unless of course its to burn said petroleum products to produce the Electricity to power all the EV's .....
Mick

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divs4ever said:

so where are the tyres coming from then ?? just asking

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waterbottle said:

Anyone know where I can get access to data on seasonal usage of crude/gas by country?
Asking for a friend...

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• How's Crude Oil traveling. Been watching for further lower lows. Or Will support be consumed with resistance in the near term as the lows continue.
• WTI Crude (cash) has continued to oscillate within a medium-term descending channel since its 14 June 2022 swing high of 124.15 and tumbled by -29% to print a recent low of 88.22 on 5 August.
• The recent rebound of +9% from the 5 August 2022 low of 88.22 has shown signs of exhaustion as it retested and reintegrated below its intermediate resistance of 93.50, which is defined by the former range support in place since the 15 March 2022 low that has been broken down on 3 August 2022.
• Bearish bias below 98.00 key medium-term pivotal resistance for another potential leg of impulsive down move sequence within its ongoing medium-term downtrend phase since 14 June 2022 high towards the next support zone of 85.35/83.60.
• On the other hand, a clearance with a 4-hour close above 98.00 negates the bearish tone to see an extension of the rebound towards the next resistance at 106.20 (also the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the down move from 14 June 2022 high to 5 August 2022 low).
• Negative elements; price actions on last Friday, 12 August ended the US session with a daily bearish reaction candlestick that almost wiped out the entire gains of the prior session recorded on 11 August, the daily bearish reaction candlestick has taken shape right below the 200-day moving average, and the 4-hour RSI oscillator has shaped a retreat after a retest on its corresponding key resistance at the 62% level which indicates a revival of short-term downside momentum that may lead to a further down move in the price actions of WTI Crude (cash).

• WTI Crude (cash) has continued to oscillate within a medium-term descending channel since its 14 June 2022 swing high of 124.15 and tumbled by -29% to print a recent low of 88.22 on 5 August.
• The recent rebound of +9% from the 5 August 2022 low of 88.22 has shown signs of exhaustion as it retested and reintegrated below its intermediate resistance of 93.50, which is defined by the former range support in place since the 15 March 2022 low that has been broken down on 3 August 2022.
• Bearish bias below 98.00 key medium-term pivotal resistance for another potential leg of impulsive down move sequence within its ongoing medium-term downtrend phase since 14 June 2022 high towards the next support zone of 85.35/83.60.
• On the other hand, a clearance with a 4-hour close above 98.00 negates the bearish tone to see an extension of the rebound towards the next resistance at 106.20 (also the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the down move from 14 June 2022 high to 5 August 2022 low).
• Negative elements; price actions on last Friday, 12 August ended the US session with a daily bearish reaction candlestick that almost wiped out the entire gains of the prior session recorded on 11 August, the daily bearish reaction candlestick has taken shape right below the 200-day moving average, and the 4-hour RSI oscillator has shaped a retreat after a retest on its corresponding key resistance at the 62% level which indicates a revival of short-term downside momentum that may lead to a further down move in the price actions of WTI Crude (cash).