Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Oil price discussion and analysis

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divs4ever said:
yes i have been watching those dips into strategic reserves as well , however many years back a friend alerted me the fact crude oil ( above ground ) tends to go 'stale' after a while and needs to be used within a reasonable amount of time

in years gone by i noticed the US strategic reserves were discreetly sold down and refreshed in the resultant dip , providing a predictable buying dip ( for selected oil stocks )

i am wondering if this year all that really happened was that such a reserve sell-down was publicized to fit a political agenda

( sadly no ' dip opportunities' have appeared for me this year )
Click to expand...
The dip might have been relative,just keeping POO flat, before the next overdue jump
 
well we are in an unusual perversion of supply and demand AND what if the thing that breaks are the commodity trading desks ( because so much it being traded in rupees , yuan and roubles and in genuine expected delivery contracts )
 
Anyone trading the Light Grude Oil - OSO/USD might find this of some interest, share price sitting on a keen 118.9 and been rising for most of the day. EightCap see it as a bye opportunity, although it overbought on most time-frames only the H4 has room to move and the daily is moving in the opposite direction. A bit sus but interest to see if it concurs against the grain, giving the current economics?
I think there dreaming and it won't hold momentum?

Eightcap mailed this a short time ago;

Thanks for tuning in, readers. Today we’re looking at USOUSD oil and wondering if yesterday’s price rejection could lead to a new leg higher from buyers.

So far this week, we have seen mixed trade with buyers coming close to breaking last week’s high before sellers took hold and set up a two-day retracement. It would have been three, but buyers had other ideas yesterday, stopping sellers once they tested 112.75. Buyers quickly took price back up above 117 and posted a higher close for the session.

Today so far price has been on the quieter side. If we can see a new move above yesterday’s high, we will be looking for a new up leg, but if sellers can close below 115.14 this could be a warning that the current retracement could have further to go.

If we do see a new leg higher would look for price to possibly get back into the 120/21 area if buyers can maintain momentum.


Happy Friday, all. We hope everyone has a lovely weekend and good trading.

1655462516332.png
 
W
Stockybailz said:
Anyone trading the Light Grude Oil - OSO/USD might find this of some interest, share price sitting on a keen 118.9 and been rising for most of the day. EightCap see it as a bye opportunity, although it overbought on most time-frames only the H4 has room to move and the daily is moving in the opposite direction. A bit sus but interest to see if it concurs against the grain, giving the current economics?
I think there dreaming and it won't hold momentum?

Eightcap mailed this a short time ago;

Thanks for tuning in, readers. Today we’re looking at USOUSD oil and wondering if yesterday’s price rejection could lead to a new leg higher from buyers.

So far this week, we have seen mixed trade with buyers coming close to breaking last week’s high before sellers took hold and set up a two-day retracement. It would have been three, but buyers had other ideas yesterday, stopping sellers once they tested 112.75. Buyers quickly took price back up above 117 and posted a higher close for the session.

Today so far price has been on the quieter side. If we can see a new move above yesterday’s high, we will be looking for a new up leg, but if sellers can close below 115.14 this could be a warning that the current retracement could have further to go.

If we do see a new leg higher would look for price to possibly get back into the 120/21 area if buyers can maintain momentum.


Happy Friday, all. We hope everyone has a lovely weekend and good trading.

View attachment 142996
Click to expand...

Well both oil & natural gas fell -6% overnight..
 
I notice after further analysis, of the OSO/USD it might well be collapsing, weekly analysis suggest it might well be exhausted sitting on a overbought market for the last couple of months and a bit, and I wouldn't be surprised to see oil prices decline over the month.
That's a good thing I guess for consumers, bringing the price of petrol down. Interesting to see how it all pan out!

1655506341657.png
 
Last edited:
Stockybailz said:
I notice after further analysis, of the OSO/USD it might well be collapsing, weekly analysis suggest it might well be exhausted sitting on a overbought market for the last couple of months and a bit, and I wouldn't be surprised to see oil prices decline over the month.
That's a good thing I guess for consumers, bringing the price of petrol down. Interesting to see how it all pan out!

View attachment 143008
Click to expand...
As suggested and predicted the forecast for Oil is on the long dance south. I Think with the war in Ukraine and other economics that have been holding oil up. Have been manipulated to a collapse of oil prices is long over due. Watching it today after consolidating it's position yesterday in a range sideways it has broken down. Looks to be re considering it's position at this present time, but I see further bearish activity obsolete...

1655876595593.png
 
Stockybailz said:
As suggested and predicted the forecast for Oil is on the long dance south. I Think with the war in Ukraine and other economics that have been holding oil up. Have been manipulated to a collapse of oil prices is long over due. Watching it today after consolidating it's position yesterday in a range sideways it has broken down. Looks to be re considering it's position at this present time, but I see further bearish activity obsolete...

View attachment 143184
Click to expand...
Great charts but could you please TIME STAMP the latest Data point

It would help me to see if it is Past History or Current Time / Real time at the point of Publishing
ie Giving them any relevance in the short term

Many thanks in advance if possibleXYZ Yacht.GIF
 
Captain_Chaza said:
Great charts but could you please TIME STAMP the latest Data point

It would help me to see if it is Past History or Current Time / Real time at the point of Publishing
ie Giving them any relevance in the short term

Many thanks in advance if possibleView attachment 143186
Click to expand...
All charts data is established at the same time as post. In current time, (Real time at the point of Publishing) although if you don't have MT4 you will not have the advantage of different time frames, exasperating the image. I post my charts at the best convenience of the signal or point I'm trying to make. As for short term relevance, don't dig so deep, there manly long term plus I have trouble producing tech analysis. To time consuming, I'm posting on the run...

e,g. OSO/USD looks like over sold bouncing of 0 fib on the 1h time frame but is weighing in on the 4h time frame and above with room to move on fib to go further south, my moneys on that occurring, because there is little resistance...

1655890329440.png
1655890544533.png
 
According to Bloombergs via Zero Hedge , the easing of lockdowns has caused a surge in traffic , and thus demand for petroleum products. And global oil markets may remain tight for the next three to five years.
A surge in road traffic has been seen in China after two of the largest cities reopened following two months of lockdowns and restrictions, indicating the economy could be restarting and refined crude product demand is rising.

BloombergNEF examined Baidu traffic data and found Beijing and Shanghai roadway congestion jumped once travel restrictions under the zero-tolerance strategy to combat infections eased in early June.

The return of the two most important cities sent an index monitoring congestion of 15 Chinese cities with the highest vehicle registration above a January 2021 baseline.
The reopening of China comes as COVID infections in Shanghai and the rest of mainland China have dramatically receded after spiking in March, peaking in April, and moving lower through May.
As China eases COVID restrictions in top cities and congestion data soars, it'll boost demand for crude and refined products.

Dai Jiaquan, a director at the oil research department at CNPC, recently said a roadway recovery could boost demand by 1.6 million barrels a day on a quarterly basis from July to September. This comes as the US summer driving season is well underway, and North America, as well as much of the world, is structurally short refined products, such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, mainly because of refinery capacity woes.

Vitol Group Chief Executive Officer Russell Hardy told the audience Tuesday at the Qatar Economic Forum that China's increasing fuel demand in an already tight global market means prices won't drop that much.

"The market's a little bit concerned that we're running out of spare capacity and is beginning to factor that into prices," Hardy said.

He continued: "It depends on lockdowns, but we'd expect it to steadily come back through the second half of the year."

Hardy's similarly bullish message was echoed by Exxon Mobil CEO who said this week that global oil markets may remain tight for another three to five years largely because of a lack of investment since the pandemic began.
Click to expand...
Given that China seems to be leading the EV market, there will come a time when the surge in traffic does no peroduce a surge in petroleum products, unless of course its to burn said petroleum products to produce the Electricity to power all the EV's .....
Mick
 
mullokintyre said:
According to Bloombergs via Zero Hedge , the easing of lockdowns has caused a surge in traffic , and thus demand for petroleum products. And global oil markets may remain tight for the next three to five years.

Given that China seems to be leading the EV market, there will come a time when the surge in traffic does no peroduce a surge in petroleum products, unless of course its to burn said petroleum products to produce the Electricity to power all the EV's .....
Mick
Click to expand...
so where are the tyres coming from then ?? just asking
 
i would suggest a trend to more synthetic rubber to handle the increased potential acceleration of EVs since my vision of EVs bring mostly glammed up mobility scooters is unpopular
 
So we have the US releasing 1 million barrels per day from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, rapidly drawing it down, but US commercial stocks of oil are barely increasing:

1658069812554.png

Either someone else is accumulating an increasing physical stockpile of oil or global supply is falling short of global consumption, the SPR releases doing nothing more than to temporarily hide the problem from view.

Adding to that, the increasingly dire gas supply situation in many countries (though the US is not one of them) will drive at least some increase in oil consumption as industry and power generation adopts an "anything that works" approach out of necessity. Not every gas user can switch but certainly some can, between them we should see an increased consumption of diesel, kerosene (including jet fuel), fuel oil and even direct burning of raw crude oil if fuel oil runs short.

Ending the war won't fix it either since the bottom line is most Russian oil is still being produced and someone's buying it. Production being down only about 700,000 barrels per day or 7% in May:

www.statista.com

Russian oil production by month 2023 | Statista

Russian oil production stood at less than 10 million barrels per day in March 2023. The production volume decreased slightly compared to the previous month.
www.statista.com www.statista.com

Various reports (Google will find them if you want to read it) are to the effect that one country buying more oil from Russia is Saudi Arabia. From a business perspective it's purely logical on their part - buy Russian oil and use it themselves, thus freeing up more of their own oil to export and gaining a pat on the back from the West for that increase in export volume. o_O

Only reasons I can see why the oil price would fall would be as a purely financial market event or if the market thinks the economy's really going to fall in a heap big time and/or it is in fact piling up somewhere unnoticed. In the absence of one of those, supply seems incredibly tight. :2twocents
 
waterbottle said:
Anyone know where I can get access to data on seasonal usage of crude/gas by country?
Asking for a friend... :p
Click to expand...
not me , but please be careful

there is a general trend to manipulate data , to suit political agendas ( China for instance would consider the real figures as strategically important and sensitive to potential trade sanctions )
 
  • How's Crude Oil traveling. Been watching for further lower lows. Or Will support be consumed with resistance in the near term as the lows continue.
  • WTI Crude (cash) has continued to oscillate within a medium-term descending channel since its 14 June 2022 swing high of 124.15 and tumbled by -29% to print a recent low of 88.22 on 5 August.
  • The recent rebound of +9% from the 5 August 2022 low of 88.22 has shown signs of exhaustion as it retested and reintegrated below its intermediate resistance of 93.50, which is defined by the former range support in place since the 15 March 2022 low that has been broken down on 3 August 2022.
  • Bearish bias below 98.00 key medium-term pivotal resistance for another potential leg of impulsive down move sequence within its ongoing medium-term downtrend phase since 14 June 2022 high towards the next support zone of 85.35/83.60.
  • On the other hand, a clearance with a 4-hour close above 98.00 negates the bearish tone to see an extension of the rebound towards the next resistance at 106.20 (also the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the down move from 14 June 2022 high to 5 August 2022 low).
  • Negative elements; price actions on last Friday, 12 August ended the US session with a daily bearish reaction candlestick that almost wiped out the entire gains of the prior session recorded on 11 August, the daily bearish reaction candlestick has taken shape right below the 200-day moving average, and the 4-hour RSI oscillator has shaped a retreat after a retest on its corresponding key resistance at the 62% level which indicates a revival of short-term downside momentum that may lead to a further down move in the price actions of WTI Crude (cash).
  • WTI Crude (cash) has continued to oscillate within a medium-term descending channel since its 14 June 2022 swing high of 124.15 and tumbled by -29% to print a recent low of 88.22 on 5 August.
  • The recent rebound of +9% from the 5 August 2022 low of 88.22 has shown signs of exhaustion as it retested and reintegrated below its intermediate resistance of 93.50, which is defined by the former range support in place since the 15 March 2022 low that has been broken down on 3 August 2022.
  • Bearish bias below 98.00 key medium-term pivotal resistance for another potential leg of impulsive down move sequence within its ongoing medium-term downtrend phase since 14 June 2022 high towards the next support zone of 85.35/83.60.
  • On the other hand, a clearance with a 4-hour close above 98.00 negates the bearish tone to see an extension of the rebound towards the next resistance at 106.20 (also the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the down move from 14 June 2022 high to 5 August 2022 low).
  • Negative elements; price actions on last Friday, 12 August ended the US session with a daily bearish reaction candlestick that almost wiped out the entire gains of the prior session recorded on 11 August, the daily bearish reaction candlestick has taken shape right below the 200-day moving average, and the 4-hour RSI oscillator has shaped a retreat after a retest on its corresponding key resistance at the 62% level which indicates a revival of short-term downside momentum that may lead to a further down move in the price actions of WTI Crude (cash).

1660612146396.png
 
maybe Buffet sees Agenda 2030 unraveling

and besides 5 years might be the rest in his investment ( manager ) career

for example i bought my last parcel of BPT in January 2016 @ 40 cents a share

and the last parcel of WHC in August 2020 @ $1.29 a share

and both companies are ( allegedly ) earmarked for extinction

if 'forever ' now translates to 5 years for Warren , maybe Warren has one more big winner in the bag
 
Grude Oil testing near term resistance 95.515 hovering at price 93.931. looking at the daily 4h chart, I don't think it will retrace any time soon either. Oil looks locked in for a rebound 104.318 Imo. Where to from there I couldn't tell you. If I had any idea about oils economy, I d say it will fall again. Buffet a bit of a betting man?
 

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