Oil price discussion and analysis

[Sodapop]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Not to mention that the Northern Winter is on the way - and if it is anything remotely like last year - demand (for heating oil) will be very high (and early signs are not good - for a mild winter)... I don't beleive this blip will last long...

:hide:

 

[vishaldon]

OPEC DECIDED NOVEMBER BEWARE

After dropping to the year low on Oct 20th drop by .9% reaching to $57 a barrel oil prices got a little charged up in New York. The Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries to cut production larger than expected. Oil prices gained sooner after OPEC meeting on Oct 19, agreement to cut output has been made because of the speculation agreement by the members such as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait wont be enough to pare global inventories as the US Crude supplies are 14% more than the five years average. Saudi Arabia also intimated Japan refinery to expect lower shipment in November. Crude oil for December delivery fell as much as $1.07, or 1.8 percent, to $58.26 a barrel in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

OPEC agreed to cut output to 26.3m barrels a day, if fully implemented, on November 1st. Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil producer, warned a further production cut of 0.5m b/d could be made in December.

The U.S. gasoline pump price fell eight cents in the past two weeks to $2.20 a gallon, the lowest this year. Prices for regular gasoline have declined 82.5 cents from a record average $3.025 a gallon. Heating oil for November fell as much as 1.85 cents, or 1.1 percent, to $1.6615 a gallon in after-hours trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $1.6796 a gallon

 

[thestorm]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Talk around the Sydney Traders Expo last weekend (beside a lot of salesmanship) was that as soon as US Congressional elections are done oil will rebound, ie the Whitehouse has a no high oil price word out to the world.

Interesting to see what happens post elections

Yeah a lot of highly respected people are saying that the US Govt is manipulating both the oil and Gold price so they can stay in power. Very interesting times ahead after the elections especially if the Republicans lose control of Congress.

 

[thestorm]

Re: OPEC DECIDED NOVEMBER BEWARE

After dropping to the year low on Oct 20th drop by .9% reaching to $57 a barrel oil prices got a little charged up in New York. The Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries to cut production larger than expected. Oil prices gained sooner after OPEC meeting on Oct 19, agreement to cut output has been made because of the speculation agreement by the members such as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait wont be enough to pare global inventories as the US Crude supplies are 14% more than the five years average. Saudi Arabia also intimated Japan refinery to expect lower shipment in November. Crude oil for December delivery fell as much as $1.07, or 1.8 percent, to $58.26 a barrel in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

OPEC agreed to cut output to 26.3m barrels a day, if fully implemented, on November 1st. Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil producer, warned a further production cut of 0.5m b/d could be made in December.

The U.S. gasoline pump price fell eight cents in the past two weeks to $2.20 a gallon, the lowest this year. Prices for regular gasoline have declined 82.5 cents from a record average $3.025 a gallon. Heating oil for November fell as much as 1.85 cents, or 1.1 percent, to $1.6615 a gallon in after-hours trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $1.6796 a gallon

Read my lips. M.A.N.I.P.U.L.A.T.I.O.N

 

[MalteseBull]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Up 3% over night...should see it to $70 this time:

Oil prices leapt more than three per cent to over $US61 on Wednesday after other OPEC members followed Saudi Arabia's lead in enforcing output cuts and US fuel stocks unexpectedly fell.

Prices also drew strength from news of fresh strife in Nigeria, where militant unrest has shut in more than a quarter of the OPEC member's production capacity.

US light crude settled up $2.05, or 3.45 per cent, to $US61.40 a barrel, the biggest one-day percentage gain since March 17. London Brent was $US2.19 higher at $US62.05 a barrel.

US crude had already risen 54 US cents on Tuesday after Abu Dhabi's state oil firm told major customers it would cut crude exports by about five per cent in November.

On Wednesday, an Iranian official said Iran had also informed customers it was cutting supplies by 176,000 barrels per day (bpd) in November.

Leading OPEC producer Saudi Arabia, which is shouldering the greatest part of a 1.2 million bpd production cut agreed last week, had told clients earlier this week it would reduce November supplies.

A Nigerian official said its national oil company would maintain a five per cent output cut in November after a voluntary 5 per cent cut to October supplies.

Nigeria's production has also been disrupted by militant attacks and on Wednesday oil company sources said villagers had invaded four pumping stations in Nigeria's southern Delta.

It was not immediately clear how much impact the invasion had on oil supplies.

Even without OPEC supply curbs, US oil imports fell last week, causing US crude inventories to fall by 3.3 million barrels, according to US government data released on Wednesday, above analyst expectations.

At the same time, distillate stocks, including heating oil, fell by 1.4 million barrels, compared with the 1.1 million barrel decline forecast.

Gasoline inventories, which had been expected to decrease by 600,000 barrels, dropped by 2.8 million barrels.

Doubts OPEC would abide by its agreement helped to push US crude down to $US56.55 a barrel last week, the lowest level this year.

Some analysts still say OPEC has yet to prove its determination, but others said the producer group had gained experience in how to stave off any price collapse that it would now put to good use.

"They have learnt a considerable amount in the last few years about micro-managing the market," said John Waterlow of Wood Mackenzie consultancy.

OPEC's success in shoring up the market could also depend on the weather.

Temperatures in the US Northeast, the biggest oil consuming region in the world, will be colder than usual and higher heating demand was expected over the next five days, US based private forecaster Meteorlogix said on Tuesday.

Private WSI Corp on Monday predicted warmer-than-normal Northeast temperatures in November, but said they would be followed by cooler weather in December and January.
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good time to accumulate on Oil stocks:

WPL, OSH, MOS, TAP, BKP

 

[scsl]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

I'm starting to feel as though the time is right to be buying oil stocks again. The oil price is holding above $60 and continuing to rise, and with demand set to increase as the US encounters cold weather, I think stocks like WPL and OSH will come into favour again. Whether or not OPEC decides to further cut oil production will not have a big an effect as the demand that is traditionally stronger in the coming months.

I got this from Bloomberg, which gives the level at which a rally may gain support:

January oil futures have traded between $57.80 and $63.21 this month. The contract may need to push through $65.60 before investors gain confidence a rally is under way, Waggoner said.

I'm bullish on oil but I'll probably wait and see where the oil price moves in the next week or two before jumping on WPL and OSH. (I don't own them atm but am looking to buy their shares and CFDs.)

 

[scsl]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Oil's back up again, having dipped to about $60.70 on stock buildup and warmer weather in the US. The rise in the last three days is largely due to OPEC cutting production. Rises in the oil price are detrimental to the economy but (as sadistic as it sounds) we really need it to rise and rise noticeably before the likes of BHP, WPL, OSH etc can 'get going' again.

I may have prematurely gone long on OSH (CFD position opened on Dec 4) but I still hold (although it's a sizeable paper loss atm) and am confident of OSH heading back up again after dropping to $3.10.

Any technical or fundamental thoughts on oil or OSH? Thanks in advance.

 

[Kauri]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Storm dumps ice and rain on US

A massive storm front has blanketed much of the United States, resulting in freezing rain, snow, sleet, flash floods and at least one tornado.

At least 13 people have been killed in accidents on slick roads.

The ice, wind and snow has brought down trees, traffic signals and power lines.

It has also blocked roads and forced the cancellation of hundreds of flights.

I think the US has a RDO on monday, but I wonder if this will move the POO.

 

[wayneL]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

I think the US has a RDO on monday, but I wonder if this will move the POO.

It still traded electronically... moved up a tad, but nothing out of the ordinary and has since moved back down.

One storm does not a winter make. (with apologies to Aristotle)

 

[TheRage]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

With the price of oil so cheap I was wondering if anyone else viewed the current Sp movement in all the oilers as an opportunity. I haven't been able to download and crude oil charts and was wondering if anyone could post one. I realise oil is at a 18month low but wondered when it could go up again. Any thoughts from the Techies. Also I am curious why all the forecasted earnings data for the oils over the next few years is progressively declining. Is this factoring in future price movements of crude oil or drying up of reserves. Two good examples of this are Santos (STO) and Tap Oil (TAP).

 

[mime]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

I would also love to know if oil is a good buy now. All those peak oil sites think it will start peaking in 2007. Any thoughts?

 

[annalivia]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

I would also love to know if oil is a good buy now. All those peak oil sites think it will start peaking in 2007. Any thoughts?

Oil markets had built in a substantial risk premium of around US$10-$15 a barrel into prices during 2006, based on potential supply interruptions from both the US hurricane season and the Israeli-Lebanese war. Contrary to the fears of the market, both events were fizzers and had virtually no impact on crude oil supplies. In my view this premium has now been completely unwound, despite significant supply risks remaining.

"In the event of heightened geopolitical tensions, oil importing countries such as China and Japan will pay up for energy security."

In my view, it is essential that investors take a step back and look at the broader picture. That picture shows the world consuming oil at a much faster rate than it is replacing it. With oil consumption running at around 85 million barrels a day, annual consumption is now over 31 billion barrels of oil! Where are the new fields to sustain such consumption, when these days a find in the vicinity of a couple of hundred million barrels is noteworthy?

I believe consumption in China and India will continue to increase during 2007, helping to offset any US based consumption slowdown.

The truth is that oil companies have already found most of the 'easy oil' available in the world over the past century. While there may be vast reserves left, the extraction of this remaining oil will almost certainly be more challenging from a technical point of view and involve a higher cost of extraction and production.

As a result, the bottom line is that higher prices will be needed to justify commercial development of these new fields. Either way, world oil markets must face the harsh reality of higher prices for the oil that we have now and even higher prices to develop the more costly and more inaccessible fields of the future.

annalivia

 

[Wysiwyg]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Hello annalivia....Could you tell me if the VIOZ forum has recently opened, like at the end of last year? :beklopptlease and thanks.

 

[wayneL]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

I would also love to know if oil is a good buy now.

It is getting better by the minute.

I wouldn't mind betting we see crude prices in the hi 40's before the weekend.

 

[annalivia]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Hello annalivia....Could you tell me if the VIOZ forum has recently opened, like at the end of last year? :beklopptlease and thanks.

Wysiwyg,

I have just started the forum a few weeks ago. Not many posts there now but I'm trying to ramp it up and get a few more posts going. Feel free to join and post any questions you like.

annalivia

 

[comptec]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

I would also love to know if oil is a good buy now. All those peak oil sites think it will start peaking in 2007. Any thoughts?

Take a read at this: http://energyandcapital.com/reports/TruthAboutOil.pdf

Any truth in that report? What are your thoughts?

Btw, can anyone name me a few OIL stock that is anywhere near the $1 mark?

 

[Sean K]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Btw, can anyone name me a few OIL stock that is anywhere near the $1 mark?

BPT is at 1.24, off highs with many many projects and maybe a long term good stock. Recently made a large acquisition (Delhi) which will turn it into one of the top, if not the top, mid tier producer - if that makes sence...

I have held it in the past but sold out when oil went pear.

 

[Sean K]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Saudi have said they're not going to reduce production to prop up the POO. OPEC not happy....Oil holders not happy....4WD drivers may become happy.

 

[chops_a_must]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

4WD drivers may become happy.

And that's something none of us deserve to see...

 

[annalivia]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Take a read at this: http://energyandcapital.com/reports/TruthAboutOil.pdf

Any truth in that report? What are your thoughts?

Btw, can anyone name me a few OIL stock that is anywhere near the $1 mark?

I think this article is right on the money.

Something else to ponder.

Commodity guru Jim Rogers, who began spreading the word of an impending bull market in all things commodity related back in 1999 states in relation to oil..........
"I'm just not smart enough to know how far down it will go and how long it will stay, but I do know that within the context of the bull market, oil will go over $100. It will go over $150. Whether that is in 2009 or 2013, I don't have a clue, but I know it's going to happen.''

annalivia