Re: OEL - Ottoman Energy
Hi jtb, the capital raising at 30 c will be available to the public do you think?You are right in comparison to NDO.OEL much more upside as the situation presently stands.
Hey whatyousee,
The last time we got to participate in a SPP was early last year (pre- AP taking the chair at OEL).
I think from the way that international investors have come on board since, I would imagine they may just place the lot?
The chinese mob that are building the production boat (for Caluit) had to buy their substantial stake on market and I think that many other institutions will see the enormous potential the SP offers at these levels.
I bought more today just in case and have averaged my buy price up to just over 30c.
If you look back in the thread you’ll see my comparison of OEL to NDO purely on Phillipines assets and after todays announcement the inherent value has swing even further to Otto imo.
If the market values NDO @ nearly $400 million on its Galoc stake and (Malampaya type) exploration potential then apples for apples that values OEL @ $1.00 per share after Otto issue another 200 million shares.
As OEL also has Caluit (which contains 2P reserves of the same magnitude again- and likely to double) due to come into production Q3 then we can probably stick another conservative 50c per share on there.
The gas resource/production from Turkey that was to fund their Argentine/Phillipines exploration will likely be sold off to Incremental now (imo) due to the income from Galoc? Off the top of my head this will probably bring in $10-20 mil.
This would then fund the entire program (>10 holes) on the monster Santa Rosa target (also see above).
Success here and we’re talking mega $
RM research’s valuation on OEL was $1.80 per share prior to todays ann,’ so my figures above are probably pretty conservative.
If we look at CVN back when they had <500 million shares and I thought they were good value from 8c - 20c on 4 million bbl 2P and upside.
They were valued then at more than OEL are now
.
Today CVN have nearly 700million shares and Ted’s resource/exploration upside (underpinning valuations of 70c per share) was somewhere around 25mmbbls 2P (CVN share).
At 50c CVN have a market cap of $350 million. This has been driven from a couple of thousand barrels (nett) per day and exploration potential.
OEL will be receiving
3,000 bbl/per day nett from Galoc and Caluit is expected to come on @
15,000 bbl/per day perhaps as soon as 3 months later.
OEL’s exploration upside is in the
100’s of million bbls in not only the Phillipines but again in Argentina.
At 40c OEL’s market cap is $80 million., post issue it will be 160 million.
When compared to CVN, we should be > 80c per share just on Galoc.
Is I said, bought more today just in case, but will participate in the SPP if it makes it down to us
.