Nickel is back!

[rederob]

Nickel presently trading at a 10 year high:

Inventories are also dropping quickly:

BHP is likely to do well, anticipating around 90K tonnes in FY22. Plus BHP has produced the first nickel sulphate crystals from its nickel sulphate plant at Kwinana. The nickel sulphate plant is an Australian-first and will produce 100,000 tonnes of nickel sulphate per year when fully operational. 85% of BHP nickel goes to the EV market.

 

[greggles]

There is talk of a nickel squeeze as demand outpaces supply. Possible cuts to production in Brazil and the Phillipines as well as possible export cuts from Indonesia is putting upward pressure on prices. Nickel might just be the metal of 2022.

The Commodities Feed: Bullish EIA report

Your daily roundup of commodity news and ING views

think.ing.com

Nickel surged by more than 4.5% yesterday and the LME 3M price touched an intraday high of US$21,235/t. In an interview on Tuesday, the Indonesian President said that the government wants to 'hit the brakes' on exporting raw materials. He mentioned the earlier ban on nickel ore exports and said that they may halt bauxite exports next year or 'something else'. He didn't mention nickel pig iron. However, earlier this year, there was speculation that Indonesia was looking at potentially banning nickel pig iron exports, sparking cocerns of a raw material squeeze for stainless steel mills outside of Indonesia. Nornickel said in a statement yesterday that production of all metals decreased in the first nine months due to the temporary suspension at three operations. Total production volume of saleable nickel and copper declined more than platinum group metals. However, the Russian producer reiterated its 2021 production guidance for nickel and copper to be unchanged. This would be 190-200kt for nickel and 335-355kt for copper in 2021. Brazilian miner Vale trimmed its production guidance for nickel from a prior projection of 200kt to 165-170kt. Moreover, nickel production from the Philippines is expected to be 10% lower than the annual average, due to frequent rainfalls and fewer vessels coming in, according to the CEO of Global Ferronickel.

 

[Sean K]

Back to $50k please.

 

[peter2]

There's going to be some consolidation amongst the nickel producers in Aust. There's already a lot of cross ownership.
IGO is eying off WSA, who owns 20% PAN. Meanwhile A. Forrest's Wyloo is in a battle with BHP for a Canadian nickel resource. Regardless if it wins or loses Wyloo already owns some MCR and WSA (incl PAN).

 

[Sean K]

There's going to be some consolidation amongst the nickel producers in Aust. There's already a lot of cross ownership.
IGO is eying off WSA, who owns 20% PAN. Meanwhile A. Forrest's Wyloo is in a battle with BHP for a Canadian nickel resource. Regardless if it wins or loses Wyloo already owns some MCR and WSA (incl PAN).

Didn't see those connections. Thanks for the heads up.

 

[sptrawler]

Interesting to see where nickel is going, is it a demand issue, or a supply issue?

 

[Sean K]

Nickel still has a way to go to some all time highs, although that blip about 35000 from Dec 06 to Jul 07 looks like an anomaly.

 

[sptrawler]

Nickel still looks as though it has legs.

 

[Sean K]

Nickel still looks as though it has legs.

View attachment 136463


View attachment 136464

Crikey, those supplies look horrible when demand is just going to grow and be locked in while there's hardly anything coming on. Same with Copper I guess.

 

[sptrawler]

The trend on nickel is still positive, for now nickel bulls will be happy.




Interesting article from last month on the state of play with nickel.

Nickel price buoyed by strong demand, dwindling stocks

Nickel prices held near their highest in more than two months on Monday, boosted by demand from the electric vehicle battery sector lowering stocks held in London Metal Exchange (LME) approved warehouses.

www.reuters.com

 

[Sean K]

The trend on nickel is still positive, for now nickel bulls will be happy.
View attachment 137295



Interesting article from last month on the state of play with nickel.

Nickel price buoyed by strong demand, dwindling stocks

Nickel prices held near their highest in more than two months on Monday, boosted by demand from the electric vehicle battery sector lowering stocks held in London Metal Exchange (LME) approved warehouses.

www.reuters.com

Battery metals have only one way to go in the short term I think. I've been waiting for a correction in lithium to go a bit more in, but it just keeps going. Must be a time when supply catches up with demand for Li, Ni, Co at some stage. Haven't seen a decent analysis of the sector that points to a nexus when that will occur though.

 

[sptrawler]

@peter2 it might be worth doing some charting analysis on nickel, it seems to be ready to break through US$11/lb from memory US$5-6 is where Australia's miners start making real money. Just a thought.

 

[Sean K]

Let's go for an April 07 high during this run. Thanks.

 

[rederob]

Kitco had it over $11/lb last night:

And for the month:

Meanwhile LME warehouses have more than half of their stock committed for the first time in years:

China's SFE warehouses have a tad over 3k tonnes available and steady outflows continue daily.
A takeway from this trend is that lithium ion batteries for EVs with nickel content are going to cost a lot more than lithium iron phosphate batteries, and it may steer away some of the intending battery manufacturers to the cheaper product, thereby going some way to addressing the present supply squeeze.

 

[sptrawler]

The thing is ATM in the EV uptake curve, energy density i.e range, is still a huge selling point, over time as the public becomes adjusted to E.V's maybe not. But for the moment?

 

[rederob]

The thing is ATM in the EV uptake curve, energy density i.e range, is still a huge selling point, over time as the public becomes adjusted to E.V's maybe not. But for the moment?

LFP batteries don't mind going from fully charged to dead flat, whereas lithium ternary batteries wouldn't last long if such cycles were regular. Also, if you are wanting a used EV's battery for a home battery, then LFPs are a better option due to a cycle life about four times greater. But yes, for sheer power and relative lightness lithium ternary batteries are the go. So Tesla's Plaid and Cybertrucks will definitely consume decent amounts of nickel, and therefore so will every high performance EV.

Changing the topic to nickel uses, this long read covers many of the areas of nickel use - aside from the obvious - which people generally never think about. So as quality lifestyles get more important in future, nickel will play an increasingly important role.

 

[sptrawler]

LFP batteries don't mind going from fully charged to dead flat, whereas lithium ternary batteries wouldn't last long if such cycles were regular. Also, if you are wanting a used EV's battery for a home battery, then LFPs are a better option due to a cycle life about four times greater. But yes, for sheer power and relative lightness lithium ternary batteries are the go. So Tesla's Plaid and Cybertrucks will definitely consume decent amounts of nickel, and therefore so will every high performance EV.

Changing the topic to nickel uses, this long read covers many of the areas of nickel use - aside from the obvious - which people generally never think about. So as quality lifestyles get more important in future, nickel will play an increasingly important role.

Yes I know, the son has gone off grid, he and I have been over it endlessly, eventually decided on LFP batteries(actually BYD) for the reasons you mention.

I was more referring to perceptions, where a Tesla model three long range and a Tesla model 3 normal range, might be just the battery chemistry, at this moment in time range may be a major deciding factor, in the future once E.V's are mainstream it may not be so.

I guess it is the same as when solar HWS came out, everyone installed a 300litre two collector system, even if they were a retired couple.
Practical application of common sense, isn't a strong point in humans, you only have to read what some on a stock forum write.

I once called out a person who sold a multi million dollar programme to a company where I was employed , for just selling a software package of common sense, " absolutely true" he said, "it is one of the rarest commodities on earth".
I thought touch'e, If the management is prepared to try and buy it, rather than employ people with it, more fool them.

In 20 years time they may well have a small city car, with collision avoidance 8G software and a 70Klm range battery that will get you there and back from anyware in Sydney for $5k.

If there is zero% chance of an accident, they could make them out of recycled plastic with a cpu and an electric motor, you put in the destination drag your fat ar$e into the passenger seat and get your daily programming from the SMH.

Meanwhile you listen to the dulcet tones of Waleed telling you how fortunate and underserving you are, they will come equiped with a remote birch branch that whips your back on the way to work, because you are so fortunate to have a job, while others have to languish at home watching t.v.
Yep the future is starting to look like a great place. ?

 

[sptrawler]

A good article on E.V battery materials.

Global EV sales jumped in 2021, as did deployment of high nickel battery chemistries

Adamas Intelligence reports that 54% of battery capacity deployed onto roads globally in new plug-in electric vehicles was powered by high nickel cathode chemistries.

www.mining.com

 

[Sean K]

A good article on E.V battery materials.

Global EV sales jumped in 2021, as did deployment of high nickel battery chemistries

Adamas Intelligence reports that 54% of battery capacity deployed onto roads globally in new plug-in electric vehicles was powered by high nickel cathode chemistries.

www.mining.com

I was wondering what was going to win out in the EV battery markets. Li or Ni/Co. Seems both are going to be required going forward.

 

[sptrawler]

I was wondering what was going to win out in the EV battery markets. Li or Ni/Co. Seems both are going to be required going forward.

Yep, not everyone buys cheap and cheerful, or everyone would be running around in a Mitsubishi Mirage.