NHC - New Hope Corporation

This is a reasonably tempting chart imo.
I like the way it is gathering under $5, which is roughly a level of past support, now resistance. There's a positive cross of the chosen moving averages, several recent higher swing lows, previous positive high volume weekly spikes around $5 and some positive divergence of the main momentum indicator to consider. I'll pick it for a weekly close above $5 sooner or later, probably sooner.

Also a Greg Canavan buy rec 25 June (see above post)

Not Held

WEEKLY

First buy filled: 1,000 @ 4.96

Held

finicky said:

First buy filled: 1,000 @ 4.96

Held

Click to expand...

Hi @finicky,

It will be interesting to see what happens to the price once it gets to the $5.40 mark.

Cheers,
Rob

NHC @ 4.91

Certainly seeing lively action from NHC (not).
I briefly considered my second buy here but have opted to wait. It might be caught in a sluggish channel with the lower rail around low 4.70's by the time projection might get there.
From rnr's comment my guess is he's looking at closing price resistance at ~5.40.

Held long term
In adding mode

DAILY

"From rnr's comment my guess is he's looking at closing price resistance at ~5.40."

@finicky,
I was basing my comments on the price action (resistance) between 23/10/23 to 27/11/23 when price fell from about $6.36 to $5.40.

Cheers, Rob

Second buy 1,000 @ 4.91

Held
Holding

15 minute chart

Bid in for 1,000 @ 4.71

Held

5mins chart

Goal!

Strong operational performance, delivering on our organic growth pipeline12

New Hope Corporation Limited (the Company or New Hope) has today released its full year results for the 2024 financial year, confirming strong operational performance as the Company continues to execute its organic growth plans.

At Bengalla Mine, key metrics associated with the growth project were achieved during the year, with both the targeted 13.4Mtpa ROM run rate and headline washery input metric being achieved ahead of schedule.
At New Acland, first coal was mined, railed and sold following the restart of operations, marking a significant milestone for the Company.
The Board has declared a fully franked final dividend of 22.0 cents per ordinary share. This outcome brings total dividends for the 2024 financial year to 39.0 cents per ordinary share, all fully franked.
The Company has also continued to focus on the longer-term growth of the business.
During the year, New Hope increased its equity interest in Malabar Resources Limited from 15.0 per cent to 19.97 per cent.
This investment provides exposure to high-quality metallurgical coal and aligns with the Company’s strategy of investing in low-cost coal assets with long-life approvals.1 Figures reflect New Hope Group equity interest basis.2 Includes cash and cash equivalents and fixed income investments, which are reported as other financial assets.

Highlights1
• 9.1Mt of saleable coal produced, an increase of 26.4 per cent (2023: 7.2Mt) supported by a strong operational performance at Bengalla Mine and the successful restart of operations at New Acland Mine.
• Underlying EBITDA result of $859.9 million (2023: $1,746.6 million), the third highest result in the company’s history.
• Net profit after tax of $475.9 million (2023: $1,087.4 million).
• Successfully raised $300 million senior unsecured convertible notes (Notes), providing increased financial flexibility to support the Company’s strategy
.• Net cash flow from operating activities of $562.0 million (2023: $1,524.8 million), and available cash2 of $824.5 million (2023: $750.6 million), post proceeds from the Notes.
• 2024 fully franked final dividend declared of 22.0 cents per ordinary share payable to shareholders on 24 October 2024.

In addition, the acquisition of the West Muswellbrook tenement and the start of exploration drilling at EL9431, both located to the west of Bengalla Mine, provide longer-term growth optionality as the Bengalla open-cut pit progresses in that direction.

The successful $300 million senior unsecured convertible notes raise, completed with a highly competitive rate of finance in July 2024, provides financial flexibility to support the Company’s strategy.

Comments attributable to New Hope Chief Executive Officer Rob Bishop:“This year, we’ve delivered on our organic growth pipeline, with the realisation of productivity benefits from the Bengalla Mine Growth Project and the restart of operations at New Acland Mine resulting in a significant increase in coal production.“
The combination of a robust thermal coal price environment, disciplined cost control and strong operational performance contributed to the third highest earnings result in the history of our Company."
As a result, we are pleased to reward shareholders with a fully franked final dividend of 22.0 cents per ordinary share.

“Looking ahead, we remain focused on the organic growth of our business via the ramp-up of New Acland Mine, sustained increased production at Bengalla, and the development of Malabar’s Maxwell Underground Mine, all of which are low-unit cost assets.

“This growth pipeline offers significant targeted production increases, which will ultimately create additiona lvalue to return to our shareholders.”

ENDS


i hold NHC ( 'free-carried' )

of course those more interested in oil should read the separate release on Bridgeport Energy

New Hope Corporation Limited (ASX:NHC) hereby announces its formal assessment of petroleum reservesand contingent resources held through its wholly-owned subsidiary Bridgeport Energy Pty Limited (“BEL”or “Company”) in accordance with ASX listing rule 5.
Bridgeport’s net 2P reserves and 2C resources as at 31 July 2024 were as follows:
• 2P reserves of 4.4 million barrels of oil equivalent; and
• 2C resources of 4.9 million barrels of oil equivalent.

and a much larger document follows that

22c final dividend
So just the final alone, not the full year div, is a 5% yield on the current s.p of 4.35

Held

my ( theoretical ) average share price is just under $2.20 , so this is now a successful investment ( but i don't know how long that will last )

BHP ( and S32 ), RIO and Glencore seem to be moving away from coal , so most predators are liable to be foreign companies should they be attracted ( might be a tough sell to talk SOL into selling )

onward and upward , or will rising costs eat into the gains ?

divs4ever said:

“Looking ahead, we remain focused on the organic growth of our business via the ramp-up of New Acland Mine, sustained increased production at Bengalla, and the development of Malabar’s Maxwell Underground Mine, all of which are low-unit cost assets.

Click to expand...

Plenty of organic growth ahead, currently 9Mt/yr and aiming for 14Mt by 2028.

finicky said:

22c final dividend
So just the final alone, not the full year div, is a 5% yield onnthe current s.p of 4.35

Click to expand...

Yep, fully franked too. good divie considering their current expansion costs.

Today's presentation is well worth a read.

Happy hold.

houtman said:

Plenty of organic growth ahead, currently 9Mt/yr and aiming for 14Mt by 2028.

Yep, fully franked too. good divie considering their current expansion costs.

Today's presentation is well worth a read.

Happy hold.

Click to expand...

while i am happy with the parts i have read so far

there are some global headwinds coming .. China is moving more and more to nuclear , so will put more coal onto the open market in a shrinking global economy , and weather can always through in a wrench into the coal production and/or logistics

and investors should look forward , but also remember the past

qldfrog said:

New Hope mounts bid for Anglo American coal mines

New Hope has warned the UK-listed miner that its asking price will need to be lower due to a devastating fire at one of the flagship mines.

www.afr.com

Click to expand...

yes , they wouldn't want to pay too much

if they were really desperate for coal , there is a Maules Creek size deposit on a NST lease not far from Twiggy's iron mine

NST doesn't seem to be interested in the coal so many NHC can handle the overburden ( coal deposit) and let NST mine the gold

( i hold both NST and NHC )

Just noticing that volume traded in this stock has been abnormally low recently, lower than any period since 2021 other than the Christmas - New Year period.

Chart is weekly with the volume portion enlarged:



Present week is incomplete but the last two were unusually low.

Going well currently. Strong quarter and guiding FY25 production to be same as this quarter annualized. Their quarter ends 31 Oct?
Not getting into the weeds but NHC taking flak from an environmental group over water supply to the 'New Acland Mine'.

"The Land Court of Queensland is yet to set dates for the hearing of the Oakey Coal Action Alliance’s legal challenge to the grant of the Associated Water Licence by the Queensland Government."

Held
Holding

i might have missed it , but was more interested in Bridgeport Energy ( a NHC subsidiary ) as it sells to a local refinery in the area , affecting prices at the pump

i hold NHC 'free-carried ' )

Excerpted from Greg Canavan's Fat Tail Investment Advisory today. Other subjects were Buffett's cash pile, PPT, travel stocks: HLO and CTD, MTS.

Held
Holding

New Hope releases strong
quarterly report​

Yesterday, thermal coal miner New Hope Corp [ASX:NHC] released its quarterly report for the three months to 31 October, along with guidance for FY25 (12 months to 31 July).

Strong production and robust coal prices saw NHC generate operational earnings (EBITDA) of $304.6 million. Given that the company expects to increase saleable coal production by 25% this year, if coal prices remain healthy, the market is severely underestimating profitability.

For example, consensus EBITDA estimates for FY25 are $950 million. Yet NHC just achieved 32% of that in the first quarter, with production expected to ramp up throughout the year.

NHC is the most profitable coal miner on the ASX, with a return on tangible capital of over 20%. It has net cash of around $500 million and trades on a forecast dividend yield of nearly 8%.

New Hope remains a BUY. To give you an idea of weighting, I increased the allocation to the Alliance members portfolio during the recent pullback to 7%. It is the largest weighting.

What I’m listening to…​

While on the coal theme, I’ll finish up this week with a podcast recommendation. It’s an interview with Michelle Manook, the Aussie CEO of FutureCoal (formerly the World Coal Association).

Over the long term (say 20-30 years) coal demand will surely decline. But the market is pricing that long-term outlook to occur in the next five years, and I don’t think that is going to happen.

That’s why I think this is such a compelling investment opportunity.

Via Market Matters today:

• New Hope Raised to Outperform at Macquarie; PT A$6.20

Held